Connor McDavid’s Goal-Scoring Decline: From 64 to 26 and Beyond (2023-24 to 2025-26)

Understanding the Edmonton Oilers Connor McDavid goal scoring decline 2023-24 to 2025-26

The numbers tell a stark story. In 2022-23, McDavid became only the second player since Wayne Gretzky in 1986-87 to lead the NHL in both goals and assists in a single season, finishing with 64 goals and 89 assists for 153 points. That campaign represented the peak of his goal-scoring ability, a season where everything seemed to click for the Oilers’ superstar.

Then came 2023-24, where McDavid’s goal production dropped to 32—exactly half his previous season’s total—despite playing 76 games and recording a remarkable 100 assists. The assist numbers were historic, placing him among the elite playmakers in NHL history, but the goal-scoring had clearly taken a back seat. According to data from Oilers Nation, McDavid scored just 1.6 goals per hour on 2.3 expected goals per hour on the power play that season, a significant decrease from the 3.8 goals per hour he had managed the previous year.

The 2024-25 season brought even more concerning trends. McDavid managed only 26 goals in 67 games—his lowest goal-per-game pace since his first full NHL season—before the playoffs began. The raw numbers don’t tell the complete story, though, as injuries played a significant role in limiting both his games played and his effectiveness when he was on the ice.

Through the first 14 games of 2025-26, McDavid has tallied just three goals while contributing 16 assists for 19 points. While his playmaking remains elite—he leads the NHL in assists—his goal-scoring pace projects to just eight goals over a full 82-game season, a figure that would represent a career low by a considerable margin.