Edmonton Oilers slow start 2025-26 Roslovic goaltending rumors: what's really going wrong

Edmonton entered the 2025-26 campaign as a popular Stanley Cup pick, yet the club finds itself outside the playoff picture at the quarter-pole, staring at 41 % playoff odds while the Pacific Division runs away from them. Once again the story is a ghastly defensive record (29th in goals-against) and nightly questions in net, but a late-August bargain buy—Jack Roslovic—has become the surprise life-line that is keeping the season afloat. Below we unpack the key strands of the Oilers’ slump, the Roslovic revelation, and the swirling goaltending rumors that refuse to go away.

Edmonton Oilers slow start 2025-26: why the numbers look worse this time

Slow Octobers are almost tradition in northern Alberta. In both 2022-23 and 2023-24 the club shook off early stumbles, but analytics suggested the process was sound and a winning streak was inevitable. The 2025-26 edition is different:

• Even-strength offense without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice ranks 26th in expected-goals share.
• Only nine regulation wins in 20 games—four of them coming against bottom-five teams.
• Special-teams dominance (top-five on both power play and penalty kill) masks 5-on-5 anemia; when the whistles quiet down, the Oilers bleed chances.

Front-office sources told The Hockey Writers the staff “expected some regression” after last spring’s long playoff run, but not a 23rd-overall placement at U.S. Thanksgiving, the traditional playoff cut-off benchmark. The club is five points out of the final wild-card berth with two extra games played, and MoneyPuck’s model now prices Edmonton as more likely to miss the dance than make it.

Jack Roslovic’s bargain emergence changes the trade equation

While the fan base frets, Jack Roslovic keeps answering the bell. Signed 24 hours before puck-drop on a $1.5 million “show-me” deal—terms he accepted only after a fruitless summer waiting for a richer multi-year offer—the 28-year-old center has 7-8-15 in 19 games and back-to-back overtime winners. His 10-point surge over the last ten tilts is tied for the team lead.

Roslovic’s success is not just a feel-good story; it reshapes roster-building math. GM Stan Bowman no longer needs to shop for a top-six winger at the deadline; he can slide Roslovic alongside Draisaitl and devote precious cap space to the blue paint. As we explored when the signing was announced, the front office loved Roslovic’s transitional speed and saw him as “insurance.” Insurance has quickly become essential coverage.

Goaltending rumors: names, timelines and reality checks

No topic dominates local airwaves more than the crease. Stuart Skinner’s five-on-five save percentage sits at .890, Calvin Pickard has been up and down, and prospect Connor Ingram is still rounding into form after his Player-Assistance program absence. The noise:

1. Elvis Merzlikins – Columbus is willing to retain salary, but the ask remains a second-round pick plus a prospect; Edmonton has so far balked.
2. Cam Talbot – The 38-year-old is thriving (.913 SV%) in Detroit on a rebuilding club; the Wings will listen, yet insiders call the link “fan-driven” more than substantive.
3. Internal shuffle – AHL standout Brad Lambert has pushed the idea of promoting Ingram and sending Pickard down, but coaches maintain Ingram needs “a month of rhythm.”

Bowman told reporters last week he will “not burn futures for a marginal upgrade,” reinforcing the belief that any deal must be a clear top-20 starter. With the March deadline still three months away, the saga will simmer. Our earlier breakdown of Edmonton’s goaltending trade landscape outlines how cap accrual and Roslovic’s cheap deal give the Oilers flexibility—if the right name pops onto the market.

What the advanced stats say about a turnaround

Edmonton is 5-3-2 in its last ten, and the underlying metrics are creeping toward respectability:

• High-danger chance share up to 52 % over the last eight games (48 % in October).
• Skinner’s HD-SV% has jumped from .765 to .810 since November 1.
• Roslovic’s line with Draisaitl is out-scoring opponents 9-4 at five-on-five.

Still, the Pacific is unforgiving. Vegas, Seattle and Los Angeles are on 100-point paces, and Anaheim’s youth movement is for real. A 95-point target means the Oilers must collect roughly 78 points in their final 62 outings—essentially a 103-point pace the rest of the way.

Key catalysts and pressure points in the next 20 games

1. Zach Hyman’s return from a 12-game absence immediately stabilizes the forecheck; he scored twice in his first weekend back.
2. Evan Bouchard’s minutes are spiking (27:30 per night) with injuries on the back end; the staff must manage workload to avoid a second-half swoon.
3. Skinner’s next ten starts will decide whether the club trusts the in-house path or pays the premium for external help.
4. The December road trip (eight of ten away from Rogers Place) is viewed inside the locker room as the season’s defining stretch.

Bottom line: urgency is real, but so is the path

History says the Oilers are too talented to stay on the canvas; analytics say the hole is deeper than years past. Roslovic’s renaissance buys management time, yet the goaltending question still dangles over any championship aspiration. If Skinner stabilizes and the newfound depth scoring survives, Edmonton can duplicate last season’s rebound. If not, the trade chatter will only grow louder, and Bowman’s patience will face its stiffest test since arriving in Alberta.