The 2025-26 NHL season has delivered chaos in the awards races, with injuries sidelining stars like Aleksander Barkov and Connor Hellebuyck. ESPN’s latest poll of Professional Hockey Writers Association voters highlights Nathan MacKinnon as the Hart Trophy frontrunner for MVP. However, Macklin Celebrini and Connor McDavid are making strong cases, turning the race into a three-horse showdown midway through the season.
MacKinnon’s consistency has kept him atop ballots for the second straight month. The Colorado Avalanche center drives his team’s blistering .841 points percentage, with just three regulation losses in 41 games. Voters praise his all-around impact, solidifying his status as the league’s top offensive force.
Nathan MacKinnon’s case for back-to-back Hart glory
MacKinnon enters the new year leading the NHL in goals and nipping at Connor McDavid’s heels in points. His role in the Avalanche’s historic pace underscores his value, echoing his 2023-24 Hart win. One voter called it a “ridonkulous season,” while another noted, “MacKinnon is just too critical to the Avs’ success.”
The Avalanche’s dominance amplifies MacKinnon’s candidacy. With 41 games played, Colorado boasts elite scoring and defense, much of it flowing through their star center. Voters emphasize that until someone eclipses his offensive output or team success, he’s locked in.
Comparisons to past MVPs abound. MacKinnon’s blend of scoring and team elevation mirrors winners who carried contenders deep into playoffs. As detailed in Nathan MacKinnon’s scorching start analysis, his early dominance suggested a coronation, now backed by voter consensus.
Challenges loom, though. McDavid’s surge threatens his points lead, and Celebrini’s rise adds pressure. MacKinnon voters hedge bets on Colorado’s continued roll, but the race demands sustained excellence.
Analytics from Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey support his bid, showing elite on-ice metrics. Still, 50% first-place vote share signals tightening competition.
Macklin Celebrini’s meteoric rise into MVP contention
At 19, San Jose Sharks center Macklin Celebrini crashes the Hart party. Third in league points with 63 in 41 games, he outpaces teammates like Will Smith by 34 points. This gap evokes Taylor Hall’s 2017-18 Hart win, where individual dominance lifted a middling squad.
Celebrini’s two-way play shines, dragging the Sharks toward playoff contention. Voters note historic precedent: Wayne Gretzky and Connor McDavid won Harts at 19. “Macklin Celebrini has absolutely and very credibly entered the conversation,” one declared.
Sharks success hinges on him. If San Jose sneaks into playoffs, his case strengthens dramatically. A voter predicted, “Celebrini has a real shot to overtake MacKinnon if Sharks make the playoffs.”
Defensive contributions bolster his resume. Advanced stats highlight impact beyond scoring, rare for young stars. As the ESPN NHL Awards Watch details, he’s keeping elite company.
Skeptics point to team context, but voters increasingly buy in. His trajectory mirrors generational leaps, positioning him as MVP dark horse.
Connor McDavid’s absurd December flips the script
Edmonton’s captain exploded for 34 points in 15 December games, topping Mario Lemieux’s 1995 mark. This propelled the Oilers from sixth to first in the Pacific, reigniting his MVP fire after zero first-place votes last month.
Now second with 30% first-place nods, McDavid eyes a fourth Hart. “McDavid proving again that the Oilers go as he goes,” a voter said. Another switched: “No chance Edmonton is anywhere near first place without him.”
His points chase threatens MacKinnon directly. Voters see him “right there,” blending volume with team lift. Edmonton’s division lead amplifies value.
Historical parallels: McDavid’s 2016-17 Hart at 19. December’s tear showcases peak form, blending speed, vision and scoring.
Ballot shifts reflect this. Many rank him neck-and-neck with MacKinnon, praising clutch impact.
Voter insights and dark horses in the mix
PHWA anonymity yields candid takes. MacKinnon holds 50% first-place votes, down from 82%, but retains edge. Quotes like “No matter how historically absurd Connor McDavid’s offensive output… it will take something really severe” capture sentiment.
Celebrini snags first-place votes, a rarity for sophomores. Others down ballots: Brad Marchand (Panthers), Cale Makar (Avalanche), Matt Boldy (Wild), Nick Suzuki (Canadiens).
- Top voter themes:
- MacKinnon’s team success locks lead.
- McDavid’s month shifts allegiances.
- Celebrini’s value could clinch playoffs push.
The quarter-season MVP race overview echoes parity, with performers like these defining narratives.
Selke and Norris races influence Hart, but offensive stars dominate here.
Factors that could decide the Hart Trophy
Playoff implications loom large. Hart often rewards postseason heroes, so trajectories matter. Colorado’s wagon status favors MacKinnon; Sharks’ bubble fight elevates Celebrini.
Injuries reshape fields—Barkov’s absence opens doors elsewhere. Stats leaders must pair production with wins.
Voters weigh “value” variably: teammate gaps, on-ice metrics, eye test. MacKinnon’s blend excels now.
Historical bids inform: Multi-finalist seasons breed suspense.
The race stays fluid. As Hockey-Reference.com tracks, standings volatility promises twists.
MacKinnon leads, but McDavid’s momentum and Celebrini’s intangibles keep voters engaged. Playoff berths could crown an unlikely hero, making this Hart chase one of the season’s thrills. Expect ballots to evolve as contenders push toward April.
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Par Mike Jonderson
Mike Jonderson is a passionate hockey analyst and expert in advanced NHL statistics. A former college player and mathematics graduate, he combines his understanding of the game with technical expertise to develop innovative predictive models and contribute to the evolution of modern hockey analytics.