Marner Emerges as 2026 Conn Smythe Frontrunner

Mitch Marner leads all remaining playoff skaters with 21 points in 15 games at 1.40 points per game.

Marner’s Playoff Command

Marner has recorded 21 points while contributing on the second-ranked penalty kill unit that converts at 87.2 percent. His 1.40 points-per-game mark ranks first among the 60 skaters still active. Vegas advanced past Utah after overcoming a three-goal deficit in Game 6, preserving Marner’s path to the final. Only four teams in NHL history have erased a 3-0 series hole, making the Golden Knights’ progression the likeliest outcome. Marner anchors every facet of the lineup, from five-on-five creation to shorthanded defense.

His production has come against increasingly difficult opponents after the Avalanche’s elimination removed Nathan MacKinnon from contention. Marner now sits atop Conn Smythe betting boards at BetMGM. Two additional multi-point efforts would lock in his status even without a Cup victory. The right winger’s 16th NHL season has coincided with a career-high postseason pace that exceeds his regular-season 1.18 points per game from prior years.

Goaltending Alternatives in the Mix

Jakub Dobes posted a .921 save percentage and 1.47 goals saved above expected across three Eastern Conference final games. The Montreal rookie has finished above zero GSAx in all but two outings since the second round. Montreal trails 0-3, however, and historical precedent shows only four clubs have rallied from that deficit. Dobes would vault to the front of the odds only if the Canadiens complete an unprecedented reversal.

Carter Hart has allowed two goals or fewer in eight of his last 10 appearances. Since Game 6 versus Utah, the Vegas netminder carries a .939 save percentage and 1.90 goals-against average. Hart’s consistency positions him as Marner’s primary internal rival should the Golden Knights reach the final. Frederik Andersen, meanwhile, sits at 5-0 in overtime through 11 playoff games despite three consecutive negative GSAx performances in the conference final. Andersen has surrendered more than two goals just once all postseason.

Taylor Hall added his fourth goal of the playoffs in Game 3 and totals 13 points in 11 games for 1.18 points per game. The 34-year-old winger’s desperation-fueled resurgence places him fourth in points per game among active players. Hall’s output, while impressive, trails Marner’s volume by a wide margin.

Odds Implications Heading Into the Final

Betting markets have shifted sharply toward Marner following MacKinnon’s exit. Presuming Vegas reaches the Stanley Cup final, Marner enters as the consensus favorite. His combination of 21 points, elite special-teams play, and two-way reliability separates him from the goaltending cluster. A repeat of his current per-game pace through four final-round contests would push his total past 25 points and cement the award regardless of the series outcome.