NHL Early-Season Surprises Analysis 2025-26

The 2025-26 NHL season has delivered its share of unexpected storylines through the opening weeks, with contenders stumbling, underdogs soaring, and individual performances defying preseason expectations. As teams navigate the early-season grind, separating legitimate breakouts from statistical noise becomes crucial for understanding which trends will shape the remainder of the campaign. From struggling superstars to breakout rookies, the league’s landscape looks markedly different than most analysts predicted just weeks ago.

The traditional powerhouses haven’t enjoyed their typical dominant starts, while several rebuilding franchises have punched above their weight class. Understanding which of these surprise starts have sustainable foundations and which are destined to regress toward the mean offers valuable insight into how the playoff picture will ultimately develop. Advanced metrics, underlying possession numbers, and situational context all play crucial roles in evaluating the legitimacy of early-season performances.

Teams exceeding expectations in the NHL early-season surprise starts analysis 2025-26

The Pittsburgh Penguins have emerged as one of the most confounding success stories of the young season, posting a 6-2-0 record through their first eight games despite underlying numbers suggesting regression may be inevitable. Their 48.99 percent expected goals share at five-on-five indicates they’ve been getting favorable bounces and strong goaltending rather than dominating possession. The emergence of Justin Brazeau as an offensive force alongside Evgeni Malkin has provided unexpected firepower, with the 6-foot-6 forward tallying eight points through eight games.

What makes Brazeau’s breakout particularly noteworthy is the quality of his finishes rather than any lucky element to his production. His soft hands have been on full display, and his chemistry with Malkin has given the Penguins a legitimate second-scoring threat. However, with general manager Kyle Dubas clearly steering the organization toward a rebuild, this hot start may ultimately work against their long-term interests, especially given the strength of the 2026 draft class.

Utah Mammoth has validated preseason optimism with a legitimate 6-2-0 start backed by strong fundamentals. Their 51.45 percent expected goals percentage ranks them 10th league-wide and suggests their performance has sustainable underpinnings. Nick Schmaltz has elevated his game to an elite level, sitting tied for second in NHL scoring with five goals and 13 points through eight games, including a hat trick against the Sharks and a three-point night versus St. Louis.

Logan Cooley’s recent explosion—totaling four points in just seven minutes during one period—demonstrates the kind of offensive ceiling this young core possesses. Alongside Dylan Guenther, Clayton Keller, and JJ Peterka, the Mammoth have assembled a dynamic group capable of competing in the ultra-competitive Central Division. Their advanced metrics support the notion that this isn’t a fluky start but rather the beginning of a genuine playoff push.

The Detroit Red Wings appear to have learned from last season’s false start, when they opened 5-1-0 before ultimately missing the playoffs. Through eight games, they’re 5-3-0 with a 51.33 percent expected goals share—better than any rate they posted throughout the entire 2024-25 campaign. New coach Todd McLellan has implemented a more structured approach that’s generating sustainable results at five-on-five.

The emergence of Emmitt Finnie has provided unexpected energy throughout the lineup. The 2023 seventh-round pick not only made the opening night roster at age 20 but earned a spot on the top line, accumulating seven points through eight games. Beyond the raw production, Finnie’s contributions on the penalty kill, in the forecheck, and winning puck battles have made him an indispensable piece of Detroit’s young core. His ability to impact games through multiple facets suggests this isn’t simply a hot shooting streak.

Montreal’s first-place position in the Atlantic Division carries more legitimacy than their chaotic standings suggest. With a 50.2 percent expected goals share, the Canadiens have demonstrated genuine improvement at five-on-five compared to last season. Oliver Kapanen has been the rookie surprise, leading all first-year players with four goals while showcasing impressive two-way play that extends beyond his offensive contributions.

While the Eastern Conference chaos—with Florida starting 4-5-0 and traditional contenders struggling—has aided Montreal’s positioning, their underlying metrics suggest they’re capable of remaining in the playoff conversation. The combination of improved possession numbers and contributions from unexpected sources like Kapanen has given head coach substantial depth to navigate the long season ahead.

NHL early-season surprise starts analysis 2025-26 reveals struggling powerhouses

The Tampa Bay Lightning have been the most shocking disappointment of the early season, limping to a 1-4-2 record through seven games. More concerning than the results are the underlying numbers: their 48.35 percent expected goals share ranks 21st league-wide and has actually improved from their opening week struggles. The Lightning are generating just 2.56 goals per 60 minutes at all situations, ranking 27th in the league—a dramatic drop from last season’s 3.54 goals per 60.

The star core of Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel, and Brandon Hagel has combined for just six goals through seven games, while the power play lacks the explosiveness that once made it lethal. Perhaps most alarming is how the offensive struggles are exposing a defense that looks noticeably slower in transition. However, with the Atlantic Division in complete disarray, the Lightning still have ample time to climb back into playoff position if their talent eventually asserts itself.

The Dallas Stars have stumbled out of the gate in uncharacteristic fashion, losing three consecutive games in regulation—something they hadn’t done since March 2022 when you exclude last season’s meaningless finale when they had already clinched seeding. Over the previous three seasons, Dallas’ only three-game losing streak came when they were locked into second place in the Central and resting key players.

The special teams have been particularly problematic, with the Stars allowing five goals on their last 10 penalty kills. According to The Athletic’s recent analysis, the team looks “a little… off right now,” which is a diplomatic way of saying the Stanley Cup favorites haven’t resembled contenders through the opening weeks. Whether this represents standard October variability or growing pains under new coach Glen Gulutzan remains to be seen, but the squandered points are already accumulating in a competitive Central Division.

The Calgary Flames’s 1-7-1 start looks disastrous on paper, but their underlying numbers tell a more nuanced story. With a 53.48 percent expected goals percentage through nine games—a top-10 rate in the NHL—the Flames have been generating quality chances but failing to convert. Their 5.41 percent shooting rate at five-on-five ranks as the second-lowest in the league, suggesting they’re due for positive regression if they maintain their current shot quality.

The question becomes whether their 2.54 expected goals per 60 minutes provides enough offensive volume to eventually break through. Connor Zary’s struggles—just one point in nine games—have been particularly disappointing given the rebuild’s dependence on young players taking developmental steps forward. The Flames desperately need their shooting percentages to normalize before they dig a hole too deep to escape, even in a weak Pacific Division.

The Carolina Hurricanes became the last NHL team to lose this season, but Andrei Svechnikov’s continued absence from the scoresheet has become increasingly concerning. Through seven games, Svechnikov still hadn’t recorded a point, leading to his demotion to the fourth line. Fellow slow starter Nikolaj Ehlers finally broke through with assists in consecutive games, but the Hurricanes need more from their high-priced forwards to maintain their 6-1-0 start.

Individual performances defining the NHL early-season surprise starts analysis 2025-26

Connor McDavid entered the season declaring his intention to be more assertive offensively and return to the upper echelon of goal scorers. Through eight games, he’s scored just once despite attempting 25 shots on goal. What’s been particularly noticeable is how often McDavid has passed from prime scoring areas rather than shooting himself. While he’s still produced 11 points through playmaking, the goal-scoring drought represents a significant departure from his stated objectives.

The contrast between McDavid’s intentions and execution highlights how even the league’s best players can experience early-season slumps. His shot generation remains robust, and the 11 assists demonstrate he’s still impacting games at an elite level. However, for a player of his caliber chasing goal-scoring milestones, the conversion rate needs to improve dramatically.

Macklin Celebrini has exceeded even the most optimistic projections for the 19-year-old first overall pick. After recording his second career hat trick and five-point game at Madison Square Garden, Celebrini joined Wayne Gretzky, Bryan Trottier, and Dale Hawerchuk as the only teenagers to record multiple five-point performances. With 12 points through eight games, he’s not just meeting expectations—he’s shattering them while powering the San Jose Sharks to respectability.

According to NHL EDGE statistics, Celebrini’s skating metrics and shot generation place him among the league’s most dangerous offensive threats regardless of age. The fact that a rebuilding Sharks team has remained competitive early in the season owes almost entirely to their franchise cornerstone’s immediate impact. His ability to elevate teammates and create offense in multiple situations suggests this isn’t simply a hot streak but rather a glimpse of sustained excellence.

Scott Wedgewood has seized the starting role in Colorado with Mackenzie Blackwood sidelined by offseason surgery. Through eight starts, Wedgewood has gone 5-0-2 with a .910 save percentage, allowing just one goal in five of those appearances. His performance ranks fifth in the NHL in both high-danger saves (35) and long-range saves (33), while his .940 even-strength save percentage ranks fifth among goalies with at least four appearances.

What makes Wedgewood’s dominance particularly impressive is how his skating has looked incredibly sharp, allowing him to stay ahead of plays with excellent reads. Once shots arrive, he challenges with proper depth, drops into his butterfly, and eliminates scoring chances through textbook positioning. The 33-year-old journeyman has not only kept Colorado afloat—he’s given them one of the league’s best goaltending performances and put Blackwood’s job security in serious question.

Shane Pinto leads the entire NHL with seven goals through six games for Ottawa, with all eight of his points (seven goals, one assist) coming at even strength. He’s tied for the league lead in high-danger goals with four, showcasing an ability to finish from prime scoring areas that’s propelled the Senators’ offense. Even before Brady Tkachuk’s thumb injury, Pinto was shouldering heavy workloads, ranking among forward leaders in total skating distance at 17.74 miles per game (92nd percentile).

The versatility in Pinto’s shot selection has made him difficult to defend, as evidenced by his league-leading 11 midrange shots on goal. His ability to score from multiple zones while maintaining elite skating metrics suggests this breakout has sustainable elements beyond simply getting hot. For a Senators team that surprisingly regressed defensively after last season’s playoff appearance, Pinto’s offensive explosion has kept them competitive early.

What the advanced metrics reveal about NHL early-season surprise starts analysis 2025-26

The Chicago Blackhawks’ 4-2-2 start has generated positive vibes around a franchise desperately seeking reasons for optimism. Connor Bedard appears ready for a significant developmental leap, while Frank Nazar has inserted himself into the Calder Trophy conversation. However, the underlying numbers suggest these good feelings may be premature. Chicago’s 45.55 percent expected goals share ranks 27th in the NHL, while their 12 percent team shooting percentage at five-on-five appears completely unsustainable.

Only the New York Islanders have a higher five-on-five shooting percentage, which typically indicates significant regression looming ahead. The Blackhawks have utilized an 11-forward, seven-defenseman lineup with surprising effectiveness, with coach Jeff Blashill deploying the extra defensemen situationally while giving increased ice time to promising young forwards. However, when the shooting percentages inevitably normalize, Chicago’s lack of sustainable possession metrics will likely expose them as lottery contenders rather than playoff hopefuls.

The New York Islanders’ 4-3-0 record has been powered by Matthew Schaefer’s immediate impact as the first overall pick in the 2025 draft. However, their 43.65 percent expected goals share at five-on-five combined with the NHL’s highest shooting percentage at that game state represents a classic recipe for regression. When teams consistently lose the possession battle but maintain winning records through finishing rate alone, those results rarely persist across an 82-game schedule.

More concerning for the Islanders has been Ilya Sorokin’s slow start, with a .873 save percentage and 0.61 goals saved above expected through seven games. While his workload remains heavy, Sorokin has struggled not against elite competition like Colorado and Vegas but against middling opponents including Ottawa, Winnipeg, and San Jose—all bottom-half teams in expected goal generation. His eventual rebound to form will be crucial if the Islanders hope to remain competitive, but the combination of poor underlying metrics and subpar goaltending suggests tougher times ahead.

The Winnipeg Jets have been one of the league’s most pleasant surprises, with their penalty kill serving as the foundation for early success. After struggling badly to start last season before a strong second half, the Jets have killed 32 of 34 penalties while matching opposing power plays with two shorthanded goals. Assistant coach Dean Chynoweth’s meticulous preparation has paid dividends, as head coach Scott Arniel noted: “There’s only so many looks that come from a power play… we have an idea of what their next plays are.”

Beyond the tactical preparation, the execution has been crisp and the goaltending spectacular. Strong special teams can often compensate for mediocre five-on-five play, allowing teams to exceed their underlying metrics through situational excellence. If Winnipeg maintains this penalty-killing dominance while their even-strength game improves, they could emerge as legitimate Central Division threats rather than a team enjoying a temporary hot streak.

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The early-season landscape reveals a fascinating mixture of legitimate contenders, teams riding unsustainable percentages, and talented rosters struggling to find rhythm. As the sample size grows and regression claims its victims, the teams with strong underlying metrics like Utah, Detroit, and Montreal appear positioned to sustain their success. Meanwhile, clubs like Pittsburgh and Chicago riding high shooting percentages face inevitable correction.

For fans and analysts alike, the coming weeks will separate the pretenders from contenders as the league settles into more predictable patterns. The surprise starts—both positive and negative—have already reshaped division races and playoff projections, making this 2025-26 campaign one of the most unpredictable opening months in recent memory.