Previewing the 2026 NCAA men's hockey Frozen Four

As college hockey teams return from holiday break in early 2026, the race for the NCAA tournament heats up. The Big Ten and NCHC dominate the top of the USCHO poll, with Michigan at No. 1, Michigan State at No. 2 and Wisconsin at No. 3. North Dakota, Minnesota Duluth, Western Michigan and Denver occupy spots 4 through 7, showcasing the strength of these conferences. Quinnipiac, Penn State and Connecticut round out the top 10.

A key change this season is the shift from PairWise rankings to the NCAA Power Index (NPI), aimed at smoothing out statistical quirks from big wins or bad losses. While the impact won’t drastically alter selections, it refines the process for tournament seeding. Analysts Sean Ritchlin and Andrew Raycroft highlight top storylines, surprises and Frozen Four predictions as teams eye Las Vegas on April 9 and 11.

Compelling storylines shaping the season

The arrival of Gavin McKenna at Penn State stands out as the biggest shift. As the projected No. 1 NHL draft pick, McKenna left major juniors for college, challenging the traditional CHL path for elite Canadian prospects. “It represents a seismic shift in how elite prospects may view their development paths,” Ritchlin noted. College hockey’s focus on strength, structure and maturity has long produced NHL stars, but McKenna’s choice elevates it as a viable alternative.

Broader changes in eligibility rules and NIL money are reshaping rosters. The Big Ten leads with four of the top eight NPI teams, building powerhouse lineups. Raycroft emphasized this evolution: “It has been fascinating to see which programs have come together and built the best teams through the first half.” These factors create unpredictability, with traditional pipelines disrupted.

Conference play intensifies the drama, as Big Ten and NCHC teams battle for positioning. Michigan’s defensive identity pairs with high scoring, while North Dakota’s offense hums under new coach Dane Jackson. The NPI’s debut adds another layer, potentially deciding at-large bids.

Historical context underscores the stakes. NCHC has churned out national champions yearly, and Big Ten depth promises multiple Frozen Four bids. McKenna’s impact at Penn State could propel the Nittany Lions into the top 10 mix.

Fans watch how NIL influences commitments, possibly accelerating a new era. Programs adapting quickest, like those in the Big Ten, hold the edge.

Dartmouth emerges as the season’s pleasant surprise

Dartmouth tops the surprise list, sitting No. 6 in NPI despite recent losses. Coach Reid Cashman infused energy and edge, building on last year’s 18-13-2 record. They started with 12 straight wins, reaching No. 1 before dropping four in a row to Princeton and Quinnipiac. “Cashman has done an amazing job,” Raycroft said.

Cashman’s system emphasizes pace, structure and confidence. Recent stumbles against disciplined foes highlight areas for growth, but the Big Green’s leap is undeniable. They round out the top 10 with Dartmouth, Maine and Boston College lurking.

This surge mirrors past breakouts, like their Hanover revival. Cashman turned a middling program into a contender, blending veterans and youth effectively.

Offensively balanced and defensively sound, Dartmouth pressures opponents consistently. Their NPI ranking reflects efficiency, even amid losses.

As conference play ramps up, expect Dartmouth to rebound. A deep postseason run remains feasible if they regain momentum.

Teams primed for a second-half surge

North Dakota leads surge candidates under first-year coach Dane Jackson. Averaging 3.77 goals per game, they’re 16-4-0 and top the NCHC. “With pace, depth and scoring balance driving results, look for the Fighting Hawks to take another step,” Ritchlin predicted. Freshman goalie Jan Spunar is 10-0, fueling the resurgence.

Denver, with back-to-back Frozen Four trips, eyes elevation under David Carle. Ranked ninth in NPI, juniors Eric Pohlkamp and Boston Buckberger anchor the defense. Their tough schedule prepares them for playoffs. Carle’s tournament wizardry shines in one-and-done formats.

North Dakota’s NCHC dominance positions them for national attention. Returning players like Will Zellers from World Juniors bolster depth.

Denver’s experience counts in crunch time. Coach Carle’s World Juniors success translates to college.

Both teams exemplify Western power, with NCHC’s track record of champions.

Western Michigan, defending champs, also lurks with goalie Hampton Slukynsky leading.

Early frontrunners in the Hobey Baker race

The Hobey Baker race is wide open, unlike recent years with early favorites. Boston University’s Cole Hutson leads defensemen in scoring with 7 goals and 13 assists, building on last year’s flash. Ritchlin calls him the likely favorite.

Arizona State’s Cruz Lucious tops national scoring at 12 goals and 20 assists. Michigan State’s Trey Augustine boasts a .938 save percentage. Minnesota’s Max Plante and others like Eric Pohlkamp join the mix.

Michigan’s Michael Hage and Will Horcoff shine, as does BU’s Hutson. “A lot of players have a chance this year,” Ritchlin said. Voters will decide who separates.

Raycroft notes no clear finalists yet, praising Lucious, Hutson and Augustine. Arizona State’s Bennett Schimek adds intrigue.

Historical winners like Macklin Celebrini highlight the award’s prestige. Second-half performances will sway voters.

Expect surges from these standouts as tournaments near.

Picks to reach the Frozen Four in Las Vegas

Ritchlin goes heavy West: Michigan, North Dakota, Denver and Michigan State. Michigan’s defense and Jack Ivankovic provide backbone. North Dakota surges with Zellers back. Denver thrives in tournaments, and Michigan State fuels off last year’s early exit.

Raycroft agrees on Western strength: North Dakota with Spunar and Jackson; Wisconsin’s turnaround under Mike Hastings (8-2 Big Ten); Western Michigan’s title defense; Michigan State’s talented lineup led by Augustine.

• Michigan: Identity found, consistent goaltending.
• North Dakota: Offensive firepower, NCHC pedigree.
• Denver: Postseason prowess.
• Michigan State: Deep roster, motivation.

Wisconsin’s resurgence and Western Michigan’s experience add threats. UConn has outsider potential.

These picks reflect chalk but align with NPI leaders. Big Ten and NCHC dominance likely fills Vegas slots.

The Frozen Four promises rivalries, with West heavy but East challengers like Quinnipiac lurking. NPI will clarify seeds, but momentum favors these squads. Fans should watch McKenna, Hutson and top teams closely—the path to April glory crystallizes now. What it means: A Big Ten-NCHC showdown could crown the champion.