The 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs have begun with great anticipation, as the Florida Panthers—the two-time defending champions and three-time Eastern Conference winners—failed to qualify. This leaves the door wide open for new contenders in what could be one of the most unpredictable postseasons in recent memory. To pinpoint the players most likely to shine over the next two months, we rely on Goals Above Replacement (GAR), an all-in-one metric that measures a player’s total value across offense, defense, and goaltending compared to a replacement-level counterpart. League-wide weights are applied—60 percent for forwards, 30 percent for defensemen, and 10 percent for goalies—to reflect positional realities.
Our rankings use an “Established Level,” a weighted three-year average (3: 2025-26, 2: 2024-25, 1: 2023-24, divided by 6), with a floor at 75 percent of the current season’s GAR to honor breakout stars. Stats are current as of April 16. All players hail from playoff teams, blending recent dominance with sustained excellence.[1]

The top forwards: Speed, skill, and scoring prowess
Nathan MacKinnon tops the list at No. 1 for the Colorado Avalanche, with a three-year GAR average of 29.2 (O: 23.0, D: 6.3). Fresh off his best season ever at 32.0 GAR, the Hart Trophy favorite combines elite speed and sniping—53 adjusted goals in 2025-26—to drive Colorado’s Cup aspirations. The Avalanche are betting favorites, and MacKinnon’s playoff pedigree (a point per game or better each trip) positions him for another deep run, potentially against Dallas or Minnesota next.[2]
Nikita Kucherov (No. 2, Tampa Bay Lightning) follows closely at 28.7 GAR, leading the league in assists for the third straight year despite a high shooting percentage. His 79 points in 41 games post-January highlight unmatched passing vision. Tampa faces Montreal first, where Kucherov’s edge against a middling Habs defense could propel them far, especially with softer early matchups.
Connor McDavid (No. 3, Edmonton Oilers) boasts 26.2 GAR, winning the scoring title with 134 points while contributing to 49 percent of Edmonton’s goals. Healthy all season, his speed and vision remain unparalleled, even as Edmonton ranks low in goal prevention. McDavid’s postseason dominance—33 goals, 128 points in 75 games over four years—makes him indispensable.
Leon Draisaitl (No. 6, Oilers) adds 23.7 GAR, his quick-release shot drawing defensive focus despite injury woes. Alongside McDavid and Evan Bouchard, he powered 61.7 of Edmonton’s 88.2 offensive GAR. Health is key against Vegas or Utah. David Pastrnak (No. 7, Boston Bruins) at 20.1 GAR led Bruins scorers despite missing games, his century-point season vital against surging Buffalo.
Jason Robertson (No. 9, Dallas Stars) rebounded to 19.5 GAR with career-high shot volume, anchoring Dallas’ two-way success. Others like Martin Necas (No. 10, Avalanche), now thriving post-trade, and Nick Suzuki (No. 14, Canadiens) round out a forward group blending primes and breakouts.
Standout defensemen: Puck-movers and shutdown artists
Cale Makar (No. 4, Avalanche) holds 25.3 GAR, the dynamic offensive force unlikely to repeat as Norris winner but still elite. His skating and production shine, though possession dipped slightly. Playoff success is crucial for Colorado’s title bid versus the Kings.
Evan Bouchard (No. 5, Oilers) exploded to 24.0 GAR, nearly matching historic marks with 90 adjusted points and boosting possession +7.8 percent. His power-play mastery and postseason output (72 points in 59 games) fuel Edmonton’s hopes.
Quinn Hughes (No. 11, Minnesota Wild) sits at 18.8 GAR post-trade, logging huge minutes and controlling shots. Minnesota’s historic talent meets Dallas first—Hughes aims to end their Round 1 curse. Rasmus Dahlin (No. 17, Buffalo Sabres) led at 17.6 GAR, ending Buffalo’s 14-year drought.
Lower-ranked blue-liners like Darren Raddysh (No. 30, Lightning, 15.5 GAR) and Jake Sanderson (No. 39, Senators, 14.2 GAR) provide depth, with Raddysh’s breakout underscoring Tampa’s resilience sans Hedman.
Goalies and goaltending edges
Andrei Vasilevskiy (No. 8, Lightning) commands 19.9 GAR, anchoring Tampa’s No. 3 goals-against and No. 8 save percentage. A two-time Cup winner with nearly 300 starts in five years, he faces Montreal’s offense head-on.
Jeremy Swayman (No. 31, Bruins, 15.4 GAR) and Filip Gustavsson (No. 32, Wild, 15.4 GAR) offer upset potential—Swayman versus Buffalo, Gustavsson backing Minnesota’s attack. Scott Wedgewood (No. 34, Avalanche, 14.8 GAR) surprised with 19.8 this year.
These netminders balance rosters, with Vasilevskiy the playoff backbone. As detailed in our 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs preview, goaltending often decides tight series.
Rising stars, veterans, and dark horses from 20-50
The 20-50 range mixes youth and experience. Artemi Panarin (No. 21, Kings, 17 GAR) and Mikko Rantanen (No. 22, Stars, 16.7 GAR) bring scoring punch. Wyatt Johnston (No. 23, Stars, 16.3 GAR) exemplifies Dallas’ youth.
Lane Hutson (No. 26, Canadiens, 16.1 GAR) dazzles as a phenom D-man. Sidney Crosby (No. 28, Penguins, 15.8 GAR) defies age. Seth Jarvis (No. 29, Hurricanes, 15.6 GAR) aids Carolina’s shot-share dominance.
Deeper cuts like Zach Hyman (No. 49, Oilers, 12.8 GAR) and Mattias Ekholm (No. 50, 12.7 GAR) provide grit. For lapsed fans catching up, check our guide to key storylines and must-watch players.
These rankings highlight firepower across conferences, with Colorado and Tampa early favorites.[3]
Colorado’s MacKinnon-Makar-Necas core eyes a repeat of their 2022 triumph, while Tampa’s Kucherov-Vasilevskiy duo chases more glory. Edmonton’s trio could overcome flaws, and surprises like Buffalo’s Dahlin or Montreal’s Suzuki-Caufield-Hutson loom large. Watch how Established Levels translate to playoff chaos—the Cup will reward those who elevate now.
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Par Mike Jonderson
Mike Jonderson is a passionate hockey analyst and expert in advanced NHL statistics. A former college player and mathematics graduate, he combines his understanding of the game with technical expertise to develop innovative predictive models and contribute to the evolution of modern hockey analytics.