San Jose Sharks 2026 playoff odds

The San Jose Sharks sit just outside the playoff picture in the Western Conference with 70 points through 65 games, trailing the Seattle Kraken by a single point for the second wild card spot. According to Stathletes projections, they have a 64.7% chance of making the 2026 playoffs, a marked improvement from their absence since the 2018-19 season. With 17 games remaining, the Pacific Division’s chaos offers a real opportunity for the Sharks to climb.

Their points pace of 88.3 suggests potential for 88-90 points, but projections peg them at 87.9, still enough to challenge in a bunched-up race. The key will be capitalizing on a soft remaining schedule while winning critical divisional games.

Pacific division standings shakeup

Anaheim leads the Pacific with 77 points in 67 games, but Vegas (76 in 67) and Edmonton (75 in 68) are right behind, creating constant flux at the top. Seattle holds WC2 with 71 in 66, tied on points with Los Angeles (71 in 67), while the Sharks lurk at 70 in 65.

This tightness means every game impacts positioning. The Sharks’ recent form has them battling LA directly for that wild card, but a strong finish could push them higher.

Stathletes sees Vegas and Anaheim both at 96 points, Edmonton at 91.6, leaving room for San Jose to snag a divisional spot if they hit stride. For context, check the full expanded standings for regulation wins and paces.

The division’s volatility favors teams like the Sharks with momentum. Los Angeles has fewer regulation wins (18 vs. Sharks’ 20), which could tiebreak against them in a close finish.

Advantage in the remaining schedule

San Jose faces just one current playoff team outside their division: Buffalo on Thursday. Beyond that, their 17 games include non-playoff opponents, giving them a strength-of-schedule edge over rivals with tougher slates.

They trail division leaders by 5-7 points, but this setup allows catch-up potential. Only 13 more games after key divisional tilts, mostly against lottery-bound teams.

This mirrors past surges, like underdogs exploiting weak schedules late. The Sharks’ extra games played (fewer than most) mean more points in play.

For deeper projections, our NHL bubble watch outlines similar paths for bubble teams.

Critical four-point swing games

Tuesday’s clash at Edmonton (9 p.m. ET, ESPN+) is pivotal, with another on April 8. The Sharks hold a 1-0-1 edge so far, making these “four-point swings” huge.

They also have two left against Anaheim, direct shots at the leader. Beating playoff-bound foes like Buffalo adds separation.

These games decide wild card or better. A sweep of Edmonton could vault San Jose past Seattle and LA.

Historical data shows divisional wins propel teams; the Sharks’ record vs. top foes (1-2 vs. Colorado/Dallas) tests resilience.

• Vs. Edmonton: Two games left, current 1-0-1
• Vs. Anaheim: Two games, chance to dent leader
• Vs. Buffalo: Thursday, only other playoff foe

Stathletes projections and playoff path

Stathletes forecasts Sharks at 87.9 points, fourth in division behind Vegas/ Anaheim (96 each) and Edmonton (91.6). Yet 64.7% odds reflect the wild card wildness.

A second wild card means facing Colorado or Dallas first round, where San Jose is 1-2 lifetime this year. Sneaking higher avoids Central giants.

Other models vary; MoneyPuck gives 51.4%, but Stathletes aligns with ESPN’s view. Our analysis of Sharks playoff chances highlights betting value in their surge.

Regulation wins (20) and pace support this. Tragic number at 33 means room for error.

Players and factors driving the push

Young talent like Macklin Celebrini has fueled the rise, per recent insights. Goaltending stability and defense improvements bolster chances.

Power play and five-on-five play must sustain; recent wins show capability. Veterans provide edge in close games.

Injuries could derail, but depth from trades helps. Celebrini’s second-year leap, as covered here, keys offense.

Fan support at SAP Center amplifies home wins. Momentum from Monday’s results positions them well.

The Sharks’ postseason drought ends with consistency. A hot streak turns 64.7% into reality, potentially reshaping their 2026 narrative. Watch Tuesday’s Oilers game—it could swing the wild card decisively. With the regular season wrapping April 16, every shift counts toward that long-awaited return.