St. Louis Blues at Toronto Maple Leafs Gameday Preview: Key Matchups, Projected Lines, and What to Watch on November 19

St. Louis Blues at Toronto Maple Leafs Gameday Preview: Projected forward lines and defensive pairs

Sheldon Keefe skated the same 12 forwards on Monday morning that finished Saturday’s 5-3 win in Buffalo, hinting he will keep the “search for balance” experiment intact. The most notable tweak is Matthew Knies sliding to the second line with John Tavares and William Nylander, a trio that logged 11:08 together at 5-on-5 and produced the game-winning goal via a Knies forecheck that forced a Rasmus Dahlin turnover.

Maple Leafs projected lines:

• Bertuzzi – Matthews – Marner
• Knies – Tavares – Nylander
• Domi – Kampf – Jarnkrok
• Gregor – Holmberg – Reaves

Morgan Rielly and T.J. Brodie remain the top defensive pair, but the minutes have flattened out; Rielly’s 23:33 per night is his lowest average since 2017-18, a nod to the improved depth created by the free-agent arrival of John Klingberg (currently paired with Jake McCabe). The third pair of Mark Giordano and Timothy Liljegren has posted a 56% expected-goals share through 120 minutes, the best mark among Toronto tandems.

Craig Berube, meanwhile, is expected to reunite the “STL Line” that drove the 2022 surge. Brayden Schenn, Jordan Kyrou and Pavel Buchnevich combined for 17 points during last year’s 6-2-1 stretch versus Canadian clubs, and Berube admitted Monday he wants “that north-south speed” against Toronto’s activated defense.

Blues projected lines:

• Saad – Thomas – Tarasenko
• Buchnevich – Schenn – Kyrou
• Neighbours – O’Reilly – Barbashev
• Toropchenko – Acciari – Walker

On the blue line, Colton Parayko and Justin Faulk continue to draw the toughest matchups, but the revelation has been 21-year-old Scott Perunovich, whose 58% corsi since returning from injury has stabilized the second pair alongside Nick Leddy. Perunovich’s ability to exit the zone with control will be critical against a Toronto forecheck that enters the night third in offensive-zone possession time (1:17 per power play).

St. Louis Blues at Toronto Maple Leafs Gameday Preview: Goaltending matchup and special-teams edge

Ilya Samsonov was first off the ice at morning skate and is expected to make his 14th start. His .912 save percentage at 5-on-5 ranks 10th among starters, but the Leafs have leaked 3.48 goals against per game over their last eight, in part because the penalty kill has sunk to 28th (72%). Samsonov’s rebound control—specifically on low-slot one-timers—will be tested by a Blues power play that has climbed to 7-for-19 since November 1.

Jordan Binnington gets the call for St. Louis after Joel Hofer back-stopped Sunday’s 3-2 OT win in Montreal. Binnington’s season numbers remain pedestrian (.898 SV%, 3.04 GAA), yet his career mark versus Toronto is sparkling: 4-1-0 with a .935 SV% and one shutout. Berube praised his starter’s “tracking battle” after a 38-save victory over Florida last week, the first time all season Binnington faced 35-plus shots and still posted a goals-saved-above-expected north of 1.0.

Special teams could decide the night. The Leafs own the league’s second-ranked power play (29.4%) thanks to a bumper overload that funnels pucks through Marner to Matthews’ one-touch lane. St. Louis, however, has allowed only one power-play goal in its last 28 shorthanded situations, a stretch that coincides with Schenn’s return to the top unit and Acciari’s shot-blocking revival (18 blocks in the last six games). If the Blues can stay out of the box—Toronto has drawn an NHL-high 4.8 penalties per 60 minutes—they neutralize the Leafs’ biggest weapon.

St. Louis Blues at Toronto Maple Leafs Gameday Preview: Historical context and betting angles

Tuesday marks the 100th regular-season meeting between the franchises, with Toronto holding a 50-36-13 edge. The last clash, a 5-1 Leafs win on March 7, saw Matthews pot his 50th of the year and ignite a 26-goal finish that carried him to the Rocket Richard. Memories of that night still linger inside the Blues room; Parayko told reporters Monday, “We owe them one,” while Berube circled the matchup on the calendar during training camp as a measuring-stick game.

From a betting perspective, the total has gone under in five of St. Louis’ last seven road contests (average 5.4 goals), while Toronto has seen the over hit in eight of its last 10 (6.1 average). The clash in styles—Toronto’s pace versus St. Louis’ collapsing shell—makes the first-period result intriguing: the Leafs are 9-2 when leading after 20 minutes, whereas the Blues are 1-7-1 when trailing first. An early goal could tilt the entire script.

For deeper insight into how Atlantic Division rivals have fared against stingy Central opponents, check out this breakdown of Toronto’s early-season scoring chances and the Blues’ evolving penalty-kill structure under Berube.

St. Louis Blues at Toronto Maple Leafs Gameday Preview: Injury report and what to watch

Maple Leafs injuries:

• Joseph Woll (ankle) – week-to-week
• Ryan Reaves (lower body) – expected to play through discomfort

Blues injuries:

• Marco Scandella (lower body) – IR, skated Sunday but not ready
• Torey Krug (shoulder) – LTIR, earliest return December

The hidden storyline may be faceoffs. Toronto ranks 30th on draws (46.3%) while St. Louis sits 6th (52.1%). Berube has already instructed Thomas to double-shift in defensive-zone situations, a tactic that paid dividends against Colorado last week when the Blues erased a two-goal third-period lead by starting with possession 12 of 14 times. Watch for Tavares—who wins 56% at home—to take every big draw opposite Thomas, a micro-matchup that could swing 90 seconds of zone time each period.

Puck drop is 7:30 p.m. ET on TSN4 and Bally Sports Midwest. Expect a playoff atmosphere: the Leafs can move within two points of Boston for the Atlantic lead, while the Blues can leapfrog Vegas for the final West wildcard with a regulation win. Whichever team imposes its identity first—Toronto’s star power or St. Louis’ structured resistance—will skate away with two precious points before the schedule turns heavier later this month.