Tony Ferrari's 2026 NHL Draft Rankings Signal Shift to College Standouts

Tony Ferrari’s final rankings crown Gavin McKenna as the No. 1 prospect, placing the 5-foot-11, 170-pound Penn State forward ahead of Ivar Stenberg by the narrowest of margins.

McKenna’s NCAA Dominance Reshapes Top Spot

Gavin McKenna posted 34 goals and 51 points in 34 NCAA games for Penn State. Ivar Stenberg recorded comparable production in Sweden’s top league yet fell to second. The 13-pound weight edge for Stenberg at 183 pounds failed to offset McKenna’s North American schedule strength.

Ferrari lists 85 prospects total with detailed analysis on the first 32. McKenna’s placement reverses earlier midseason projections that favored Stenberg. Teams now weigh NCAA speed against Swedish two-way reliability when evaluating the top pick.

Alberts Smits sits fourth at 6-foot-3 and 209 pounds after strong Jukurit play. Malte Gustafsson follows at 6-foot-4 and 203 pounds from HV71. Both Swedish defensemen trail the top forwards by design in Ferrari’s model.

The gap between McKenna and Stenberg measures less than one ranking point in Ferrari’s internal scoring. Five-foot-9 Viggo Bjorck holds third despite smaller stature and 180 pounds. Size advantages appear secondary to skill projection in this class.

Defensemen Cluster Behind Early Forwards

Keaton Verhoeff lands at No. 7 after North Dakota posted 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds. Chase Reid follows at eighth from the OHL at 6-foot-2 and 190 pounds. Xavier Villeneuve ranks tenth at 5-foot-11 and 164 pounds from the QMJHL.

Ferrari slots six defensemen inside the top 10. This distribution contrasts prior drafts where forwards claimed seven of the first 10 spots. The concentration forces teams to decide between immediate forward impact and long-term blue-line stability.

Ryan Lin at No. 17 measures 5-foot-11 and 180 pounds from the WHL. Juho Piiparinen sits 25th at 6-foot-2 and 204 pounds from Tappara. William Hakansson closes the top 32 at 6-foot-4 and 217 pounds from Lulea.

Numerical separation between consecutive defensemen averages 0.8 ranking points. Forward clusters show tighter 0.3-point gaps. Ferrari’s model rewards skating and playmaking metrics over pure physical tools in this cycle.

Forward Depth Extends Past Traditional Cutoff

Ethan Belchetz ranks 15th at 6-foot-5 and 230 pounds from the OHL. Oscar Hemming follows at 18th measuring 6-foot-4 and 204 pounds from Boston College. Gleb Pugachyov lands 29th at 6-foot-3 and 224 pounds from Russia.

Ferrari includes 53 forwards among the top 85 prospects. The forward-heavy list extends meaningful selections into the second round for teams seeking scoring depth. Secondary metrics such as shot volume and zone entries separate the next tier from honorable mentions.

McKenna’s edge stems from 17 more points than Stenberg across comparable ice time. The Penn State schedule included 12 games against top-10 NCAA opponents. Stenberg faced fewer high-event games in Sweden’s professional circuit.

Implications for 2026 Draft Strategy

Teams holding top-five picks now face a binary choice between McKenna’s proven production and Stenberg’s projectable two-way game. Ferrari’s list projects McKenna as the safer floor while Stenberg retains higher ceiling upside.

The new No. 1 ranking compresses the first round. Prospects ranked 6 through 12 sit within 4 ranking points. Draft capital spent on later defensemen may yield comparable value to early forward selections under this ordering.

McKenna, Stenberg and Bjorck occupy the first three spots as left wingers or centers. Ferrari’s model prioritizes skill position versatility over positional need. Organizations drafting for immediate NHL contribution will target the top 15 cluster heavily.

McKenna’s 34 goals and 51 points in 34 NCAA games set a benchmark teams will chase when the 2026 draft opens in June.