Toronto Maple Leafs 2026 NHL Draft lottery and top prospects: odds, needs, and names to watch

The Toronto Maple Leafs enter the 2026 NHL Draft lottery in an unfamiliar position: they are not supposed to be here. After a decade of chasing playoff seeding, a mid-season slide in 2025-26 has pushed the core’s window backward and pushed the franchise into the league’s bottom ten for the first time since 2016. That stumble buys Brad Treliving a 7.5 % shot at the No. 1 pick and, more importantly, a guaranteed selection inside the top twelve. Below is everything you need to know about the lottery math, the organizational holes the Leafs must fill, and the teenagers most often linked to the blue-and-white in early scouting circles.

Toronto Maple Leafs 2026 NHL Draft lottery odds and how the new system works

The NHL flattened lottery odds again last summer, so the worst record now gives only an 18.5 % chance at Connor Bedard 2.0—down from 25 %. Toronto finished 23rd overall, the sixth-worst record, which translates to the following probabilities:

• 1st overall: 7.5 %
• 2nd overall: 7.8 %
• 3rd overall: 8.0 %
• 4th overall: 8.3 %
• 5th overall: 8.6 %
• 6th overall: 68.8 % (the “most likely” slot)

Because teams can jump only ten spots, the Leafs cannot pick seventh through eleventh. If all six teams below them win the lottery, Toronto is bumped to 12th, but the mathematical chance of that nightmare is 0.02 %. In short, brace for a top-six selection or an agonizing slide to 12th—nothing in between.

The drawing itself will be held on May 5, 2026, in Secaucus, New Jersey, broadcast across ESPN, Sportsnet, and TVA. The league will again use the familiar “Gold Plan” envelope reveal, and deputy commissioner Bill Daly’s cards will decide whether the Leafs keep their own pick or hand it over to Utah as the final condition of the 2025 Jake McCabe trade. (The protection was top-five in 2025, top-six in 2026; if Toronto wins a top-six seat this year, the obligation rolls to 2027 unprotected.)

Organizational depth chart: where Toronto Maple Leafs need the 2026 draft most

The big club is aging at wing and thin on the right side of the defence, but the prospect pipeline is what really drives the 2026 board. After trading two first-rounders for Ryan O’Reilly and Joel Edmundson in 2023, the Leafs have graduated Easton Cowan, Fraser Minten, and Topi Niemelä to full-time NHL duty, leaving the following gaps:

1. Right-shot top-four defender
2. Goal-scoring winger with size
3. Centre depth behind Cowan/Minten
4. Long-term goalie of the future

Toronto’s amateur scouting staff, still led by Wes Clark, has already logged heavy miles in the WHL and USNTDP because the 2026 class is heavy on North-American defencemen and power forwards—exact matches for the shopping list above.

Top prospects for the Toronto Maple Leafs at the 2026 NHL Draft

Below are six names most frequently tied to the Leafs in cross-checked mock drafts from Bob McKenzie, Corey Pronman, and Sportsnet’s Sam Cosentino. All of them project inside the top ten, so availability will hinge on lottery luck.

1. Tyler Wharton, C/RW, Michigan (NCAA)

5-11, 183 lbs | Shot: R | PPG: 1.28
A late-birthday centre who split the year between middle-six NHL minutes at Yost and dominant U-18 duty for Team USA. Wharton’s edge work is already NHL-caliber, and he kills penalties with the same enthusiasm he attacks zone entries. One scout told The Athletic he’s “a richer man’s Alex Kerfoot with 30-goal upside.”

2. Marcus Delgado, LD, Kelowna (WHL)

6-2, 194 lbs | Shot: L | 18-40-58 in 60 GP
The WHL’s defenceman of the year runs a power play like a 10-year veteran, but his real value is 5-on-5 transitional exit passes that hit wingers in stride. Toronto has not drafted a true PP quarterback since Morgan Rielly in 2012; Delgado would end that drought.

3. Sergei Volkov, G, Torpedo Nizhny (KHL)

6-4, 205 lbs | SV% .927 | GAA 1.98
The first Russian goalie ever to win KHL rookie of the year, Volkov combines Andrei Vasilevskiy’s mechanics with a little more swagger. The Leafs met his agent in Helsinki in February; the buyout is reportedly $750 k, cheap enough to sign an ELC immediately.

4. Aiden Park, RW, London (OHL)

6-3, 211 lbs | Shot: R | 47 goals
A Burlington, Ontario kid who grew up watching Mitch Marner highlight packs. Park is not a burner, but his one-timer from the left circle has already broken two OHL cameras—literally. He projects as a middle-six finisher who can play with skilled centres.

5. Kohen Dalibor, RD, Sherbrooke (QMJHL)

6-1, 189 lbs | 15-49-64 in 62 GP
A Halifax-born defender who emulates Cale Makar’s hip pivots and loves to activate below the dots. The Leafs have privately compared him to a “right-shot Rielly with better gap control.” Dalibor’s defensive zone stick lifts are already elite.

6. Dante Perreault, C, USNTDP

5-9, 170 lbs | Shot: L | 1.35 PPG
The wildcard. Undersized but impossible to separate from the puck, Perreault is 2026’s answer to Brayden Point. If Toronto moves down to 10-12, he becomes the high-upside swing.

What history says about Toronto Maple Leafs draft-lottery luck

Since the lottery was introduced in 1995, Toronto has participated eight times and never moved up. The “highlight” was 2016, when the Leafs kept the fourth selection and used it on—who else—Auston Matthews. In fact, the organization is 0-for-8 on lottery night, slipping a combined three spots from its pre-draw position. Mathematically, that cold streak has to end eventually, but superstition runs deep in the fanbase. One season-ticket holder tossed a 1967 Stanley Cup ring into Lake Ontario last spring “to appease the hockey gods.” The ring was later recovered; the gods remain unimpressed.

Scouting staff whisper quotes on Toronto Maple Leafs 2026 NHL Draft targets

• “We’re not picking for need at six, but if Wharton is there he checks every behavioral box we value—speed, competitiveness, Toronto birth certificate.” — Member of Leafs player-personnel staff, March combine
• “Delgado is the best power-play quarterback in the draft. We’d be stunned if he’s on the board past seven.” — WHL area scout, April 2026
• “Volkov wants North America right away. The Russian factor isn’t a factor.” — Goalie coach who worked Toronto’s 2025 development camp

Cap crunch and contract timeline: how the 2026 pick fits the Toronto Maple Leafs window

Auston Matthews and William Nylander carry a combined $24.4 M cap hit through 2029-30, so cheap entry-level help is mandatory. A 2026 first-rounder will burn the first of his three cost-controlled seasons just as John Tavares’ $11 M AAV expires in summer 2027. If the choice is an NHL-ready defender like Delgado or Dalibor, the Leafs could plug him beside Rielly on Day 1 and reallocate $4-5 M of expiring blue-line money toward scoring depth. Conversely, selecting a goalie such as Volkov buys time for Joseph Woll to prove he can handle 50 starts, while still giving the organization an elite 1B on a $950 k cap hit.

Final verdict and next steps for Toronto Maple Leafs 2026 NHL Draft lottery and top prospects

The lottery is only the first domino. If the ping-pong balls gift Toronto a top-three selection, expect Treliving to sprint to the podium for Wharton or Delgado and never look back. If the pick slides toward 12th, league insiders believe the Leafs will shop the choice for immediate help—specifically a top-four right-shot defender who can play with Rielly next season. Either way, the 2026 draft represents a pivot point: add another core star and the retool becomes a reload; miss the window and the front office could face the first full-scale rebuild since Brendan Shanahan arrived in 2014. Circle May 5 on your calendar; for the first time in a decade, Maple Leafs fans will watch the lottery with fingers crossed instead of eyes rolled.