Windsor Spitfires first 22 games of the 2025-26 OHL season analysis: record, trends and what comes next

Windsor Spitfires first 22 games of the 2025-26 OHL season analysis

The Windsor Spitfires hit the 22-game mark of the 2025-26 OHL campaign sitting at 14-6-2, good for 30 points and second place in the ultra-competitive West Division. After a slow 2-3-0 October that had some fans wondering if the rebuild was stalling, the Spits ripped off a 12-3-2 run since Hallowe’en, out-scoring opponents 89-63 and climbing within three points of London for the conference lead. Head coach Marc Savard called the stretch “the best 60-minute hockey we’ve played since 2017” after Sunday’s 5-2 win in Saginaw, and the underlying numbers back him up.

What changed? A forward group that returned only two 20-goal men suddenly owns the league’s third-best offence, while rookie goalie Xavier Medina (.914 SV%) has stabilised a crease that bled 4.03 goals per game a year ago. Below, we break down every layer of the Windsor Spitfires first 22 games of the 2025-26 OHL season analysis—special teams, line matching, prospect stock and the schedule ahead—so you can see exactly why the Memorial Cup hosts look like a legitimate threat instead of a mere feel-good story.

Record and standings snapshot through 22 games

• Record: 14-6-2 (Home: 8-2-1, Road: 6-4-1)
• Points %: .682 (3rd in Western Conference)
• Goals for: 89 (4.05 per game, 3rd OHL)
• Goals against: 63 (2.86 per game, 6th OHL)
• Power play: 25/103 – 24.3 % (2nd OHL)
• Penalty kill: 82/99 – 82.8 % (5th OHL)

The Spitfires have already banked six regulation wins against current playoff teams, including a season-defining 6-4 triumph in London on Nov 9 that ended the Knights’ 15-game home winning streak. They are 7-1-1 in one-goal games, a massive flip from 2024-25 when they dropped 14 of 19.

Offensive explosion: who’s driving the bus?

1. Dylan Seguin – 22 yrs, C – 15-18-33, +12
   The over-age captain has doubled his goal pace from last year, scoring six times on the power play and winning 56 % of draws. Savard uses him in a “match-up plus” role: start in the D-zone, finish in the O-zone.

2. Rookie revelation: Lukas Vaclavik – 16 yrs, LW – 9-15-24, +9
   The Czech import was a camp surprise; now he’s riding shotgun with Seguin on the top line. His 15 assists lead all OHL freshmen and earned him a nod to the Czechia U-18 team for the Five Nations in February.

3. Secondary scoring

   • C Jaxon Nelson (17) – 8-13-21
   • RW Carter Hicks (19) – 10-9-19
   • D Alex Grudenko (18) – 4-12-16 (QB of PP unit)

Windsor’s forward depth was questioned after trading 50-goal man Ryan Abraham last January. Instead, the Spitfires rolled four lines nightly and averaged 35.4 shots per game, second only to the Erie Otters. As Savard told the Windsor Star after the Nov 14 win over Kitchener: “We don’t need one guy to get 50. We need twelve guys to get 20—and we’re on track.”

Goaltending and defence: from question mark to exclamation point

Last season the club finished 19th in goals against and used seven different goalies. The turnaround starts with Medina, the 6-foot-3 Mexican netminder plucked in the 2024 CHL Import Draft. His .914 save percentage doesn’t jump off the page, but his 5.18 goals-saved above average (GSAA) ranks fourth among OHL starters, per InStat Hockey.

In front of him, the top pair of defencemen Simon Roussel (18) and import Arttu Karki (19) have combined for 28 points and eat 23 minutes a night against top competition. Roussel’s breakout prompted The Hockey News to slot him at No. 42 in their mid-season NHL draft rankings, projecting a third-round ceiling.

Key defensive stats through 22 games:

• Shots against per game: 28.1 (4th fewest)
• Slot passes allowed: 9.4 per game (down from 13.1 in ’24-25)
• Penalty minutes: 8.9 per game (7th fewest)

Special teams: power play clicks, penalty kill clamps

Windsor’s man advantage runs through the half-wall, where Grudenko and Seguin play catch before feeding Vaclavik for one-timers or Roussel for back-door tap-ins. The 24.3 % success rate is a five-point jump over last season and has already produced six game-winning goals.

On the kill, assistant coach Bob Jones switched from a passive box to an aggressive 1-3 press. The result: 10 shorthanded goals, tops in the OHL, including a pair by centre Tyler Deline that turned the tide in back-to-back November wins over Flint and Sarnia. Jones credits video sessions with the NHL Insights staff for borrowing pressure concepts used by the Carolina Hurricanes—proof that junior clubs can steal pro tactics when executed by smart, quick teenagers.

Schedule strength and what the metrics say

According to CHL Stats, Windsor’s first 22 opponents own a combined .585 points percentage, the toughest slate in the West. Yet the Spitfires boast a 52.8 expected-goals share at 5-on-5, fourth in the league, suggesting their record is no mirage.

November’s gauntlet—three-in-three against London, Kitchener and Saginaw—was supposed to test their depth. Instead they took seven of eight points, outshooting the trio 113-82. The PDO (shooting % + save %) sits at 1.004, essentially neutral, so there’s no looming regression red flag either.

Prospect spotlight and NHL draft stock

• Simon Roussel – Ranked 42nd by THN, 6-2, 192 lbs, right-shot D with NHL feet and a heavy point shot.
• Lukas Vaclavik – Early re-entry for 2026 draft, already drawing comparisons to David Pastrnak for his curl-and-drag release.
• Xavier Medina – First Mexican goalie ever on NHL Central Scouting lists; mid-season grade: “C” (fourth-round potential).

Scouts flock to Windsor because the Spitfires play an up-tempo, pro-style structure. One Eastern Conference executive told McKeen’s Hockey: “They work in straight lines, reload hard, and their D activate at the right times. It’s an easy translatable game.”

Key moments that shaped the first quarter

1. Oct 26 – 4-3 OT win vs London: Seguin hat-trick, Medina 41 saves. Confidence booster after 2-3 start.
2. Nov 9 – 6-4 win in London: Ended Knights’ 15-game home streak; Vaclavik’s between-the-legs goal went viral on Sportsnet.
3. Nov 14 – 3-2 SO win vs Kitchener: Deline’s shorthanded snipe with 4:03 left; first four-game win streak since 2022.
4. Nov 21 – 5-2 win in Saginaw: Complete 60-minute road game; power play 3-for-4, penalty kill 5-for-5.

Each victory layered belief onto a young roster. “You could feel the rink shake after we beat London in overtime,” Roussel said. “That’s when we knew we weren’t just spoilers—we’re contenders.”

Injury report and lineup stability

The Spitfires have lost only 11 man-games to injury, the lowest total in the OHL. Hicks missed two weekends with a lower-body tweak, and fourth-line grinder Liam Greentree sat one game for suspension, but otherwise the lineup has been remarkably stable. That continuity explains why Savard could keep defence pairs and forward trios intact long enough to build chemistry—rare in a league where 16-year-olds often oscillate between roles.

What the Windsor Spitfires first 22 games of the 2025-26 OHL season analysis tells us about the future

Windsor’s front office entered the year preaching patience: sell some veteran pieces, let the kids marinate, maybe host a Memorial Cup game or two. Instead, the club is on a 104-point pace and owns three of the CHL’s top 50 scorers. The Memorial Cup tournament—played at the WFCU Centre in late May—no longer feels like a ceremonial cameo; it feels like home-ice advantage waiting to be seized.

The trade deadline is Jan 10. GM Bill Bowler insists he won’t mortgage the future, but a middle-tier rental (think over-age scorer or veteran PK defender) could be the final brick in a wall that’s already built higher than anyone expected. London and Saginaw still own deeper prospect pools, yet neither can match Windsor’s current balance of elite special teams, veteran goaltending and a coach who has the roster believing 2017-style glory is only four months away.

If the Spitfires keep rolling at even 80 % of their November clip, the conversation shifts from “Can they make the playoffs?” to “Can they make history?” The next 22 games—featuring 14 home dates and only three back-to-backs—will tell us whether the first quarter was a flash of youthful exuberance or the opening act of a Memorial Cup run that Windsor hockey fans will talk about for decades.