Ten years after the 2016 NHL draft in Buffalo, ESPN experts Rachel Kryshak and Greg Wyshynski revisited the first round with perfect hindsight. The original draft saw Toronto select Auston Matthews first overall, followed by Patrik Laine to Winnipeg and Pierre-Luc Dubois to Columbus. Hindsight reveals a deep class where late picks like Tage Thompson and Jesper Bratt emerged as stars, while high selections like Olli Juolevi faded.
Both experts agree Matthews remains the top prize, but debates heat up quickly afterward. Kryshak, a data consultant with NHL experience, and Wyshynski, ESPN’s senior NHL writer, reshuffle based on a decade of performance.[1][2] Their picks highlight how goal-scoring prowess, defensive impact and two-way play reshaped perceptions.
Consensus at the top: Auston Matthews holds firm
Auston Matthews tops both redrafts for Toronto. Kryshak calls him the most talented Leaf ever, on track to own franchise records and a Hart Trophy winner as captain. She praises his community role and No. 34 legacy.
Wyshynski echoes this despite recent dips. Matthews has 428 goals in 689 games, far ahead of peers. “He’s Auston Freakin’ Matthews,” Wyshynski writes, noting generational scoring even amid 2025-26 injuries.
The Maple Leafs’ original pick stands unchallenged. Matthews’ dominance underscores why Toronto won the lottery that year. No other 2016 draftee matches his output.
Debate emerges at No. 2. Winnipeg’s Patrik Laine, with 422 points in 537 games, slides due to injuries and off-ice issues.
Defensemen dominate early: Fox, McAvoy and more
Winnipeg takes Matthew Tkachuk per Kryshak, valuing his “nightmare” style and game-tilting ability alongside Kyle Connor and Connor Hellebuyck. Wyshynski prefers Adam Fox, a Norris winner and elite puck-mover.
Columbus selects Charlie McAvoy (Kryshak) or Tkachuk (Wyshynski). McAvoy’s playoff reliability in a tough division shines, while Fox’s offensive edge draws praise despite Rangers’ struggles.
Edmonton’s Jesse Puljujarvi bust prompts Fox (Kryshak) or McAvoy (Wyshynski). Imagine Fox with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl—Kryshak dreams of extra Cup runs.
Vancouver’s Olli Juolevi flop leads both to Tage Thompson. The late-bloomer, 26th originally, scores 214 goals in 526 games as Buffalo’s top center.
These shifts prioritize blue-line anchors. Finding elite defensemen proves rarer than forwards.
| Pick | Original | RK Pick | GW Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Patrik Laine | Matthew Tkachuk | Adam Fox |
| 3 | Pierre-Luc Dubois | Charlie McAvoy | Matthew Tkachuk |
| 4 | Jesse Puljujarvi | Adam Fox | Charlie McAvoy |
| 5 | Olli Juolevi | Tage Thompson | Tage Thompson |
Mid-round values: Goal scorers and playmakers rise
Calgary, who took Tkachuk originally, eyes Clayton Keller (Kryshak) or Jesper Bratt (Wyshynski). Keller’s dual-threat production and Bratt’s 515 points in 630 games highlight offensive gems.
Arizona’s Keller pick moves to Alex DeBrincat (Kryshak) or back to Keller (Wyshynski), with 292 goals second to Matthews. Buffalo grabs Bratt or DeBrincat for dynamic skill.
Montreal keeps Mikhail Sergachev, a top-pairing force traded too soon. Kryshak laments the Jonathan Drouin deal that aided Tampa’s Cups.
Colorado’s Tyson Jost yields Brandon Hagel (Kryshak) or Jakob Chychrun (Wyshynski). Hagel’s tenacity pairs with Nathan MacKinnon perfectly.
- DeBrincat: Elite scorer, needs setup.
- Bratt: Top talent, dual-threat.
- Sergachev: Two-way impact, Cup winner.
These selections reward sustained production over hype.
Lower first round: Depth players and goalies emerge
Ottawa takes Chychrun (Kryshak) or Hagel (Wyshynski). New Jersey agrees on Pierre-Luc Dubois as a matchup center.
Carolina loves Jordan Kyrou for possession dominance. Boston eyes Filip Gustavsson (Kryshak) or Laine (Wyshynski).
Minnesota adds Filip Hronek, bolstering the right side. Arizona’s second pick goes to Laine (Kryshak) or Gustavsson (Wyshynski).
Nashville eyes Samuel Girard or Ryan Lindgren. Winnipeg follows with Ross Colton.
Goalies like Gustavsson and Joseph Woll address needs, while bottom-six grinders like Colton fit contenders.
The draft’s depth surprises. Late steals like Thompson (up 21 spots) redefine value.
Goaltending and bottom-six fits close the round
Florida’s Henrik Borgstrom prompts Luke Kunin (Kryshak) or Trent Frederic (Wyshynski). Anaheim swaps Max Jones for Taylor Raddysh or Kunin.
Dallas develops Dante Fabbro better. St. Louis grabs Brandon Duhaime over trading Thompson away.
Tampa eyes Frederic or Raddysh. Washington fixes Jesse Puljujarvi, per Wyshynski’s optimism.
Boston takes Puljujarvi (Kryshak) or Logan Stanley. Anaheim ends with Connor Ingram.
- Gustavsson: Reliable tandem starter.
- Colton: Cup-proven versatility.
- Duhaime: Blues-style bottom-six.
Teams prioritize fit over flash late.
This redraft, detailed in ESPN’s full breakdown, shows a class rich in defensemen and surprises.[1]
Matthews’ throne is secure, but the 2016 class delivered foundational pieces across positions. As teams eye the original draft order, hindsight lessons endure: bet on two-way impact and development paths.[3] Future drafts will test if this depth repeats.
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Par Mike Jonderson
Mike Jonderson is a passionate hockey analyst and expert in advanced NHL statistics. A former college player and mathematics graduate, he combines his understanding of the game with technical expertise to develop innovative predictive models and contribute to the evolution of modern hockey analytics.