In a recent lottery simulation run on Tankathon.com, the Toronto Maple Leafs struck gold by securing the first overall pick, selecting dynamic left winger Gavin McKenna from Penn State. Tankathon Mock Draft The St. Louis Blues followed closely with the second pick, grabbing Ivar Stenberg of Frolunda in Sweden. This mock draft highlights how lottery luck could reshape struggling franchises as the real 2026 NHL draft lottery approaches on May 5. Reddit
The simulation reflects the current NHL standings, where teams like the Leafs and Blues have positioned themselves for high odds through challenging seasons. As detailed by Tony Ferrari at The Hockey News, Toronto and St. Louis capitalized on their fortune in this Tankathon run. With the regular season winding down, such scenarios fuel excitement for potential franchise-altering selections.
Lottery results and full top-16 mock draft
The Tankathon simulator produced an intriguing order, blending poor regular-season finishes with lottery bounces. Here’s the top 16 picks from this simulation:
- Toronto Maple Leafs - Gavin McKenna, LW, Penn State (NCAA)
- St. Louis Blues - Ivar Stenberg, LW, Frolunda (Swe.)
- Vancouver Canucks - Caleb Malhotra, C, Brantford (OHL)
- Chicago Blackhawks - Carson Carels, D, Prince George (WHL)
- New York Rangers - Keaton Verhoeff, D, Univ. of North Dakota (NCAA)
- Calgary Flames - Tynan Lawrence, C, Boston University (NCAA)
- Seattle Kraken - Chase Reid, D, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
- Winnipeg Jets - Daxon Rudolph, D, Prince Albert (WHL)
- Florida Panthers - Alberts Smits, D, Jukurit (Fin.)
- San Jose Sharks - Malte Gustafsson, D, HV71 (Swe.)
- Nashville Predators - Ethan Belchetz, RW, Windsor (OHL)
- New Jersey Devils - Viggo Bjorck, C, Djurgarden (Swe.)
- New York Islanders - Oscar Hemming, RW, Boston College (NCAA)
- Columbus Blue Jackets - Adam Novotny, RW, Peterborough (OHL)
- St. Louis Blues (via Detroit) - Ryan Lin, D, Vancouver (WHL)
- Washington Capitals - Oliver Suvanto, C, Tappara (Fin.)
This order underscores defensive depth in the class, with six blueliners in the top 10. Teams like Chicago and the Rangers address back-end needs, while forwards dominate the top two spots.
The simulation’s chaos mirrors real lottery dynamics, where a 25.5% chance can vault a team like Vancouver into the top three. Daily Faceoff For the Canucks, who are navigating front-office changes, landing third here offers hope amid their rebuild—especially as they target a GM hire ahead of the lottery, as covered in Vancouver’s GM search ahead of draft lottery.
Toronto’s simulated win aligns with their deliberate positioning this season. Our analysis of the Maple Leafs’ 2026 draft lottery odds and top prospects highlights how their tanking strategy could pay off with elite talent.
Blues fans would celebrate doubly with picks at two and 15. Such outcomes emphasize the lottery’s role in accelerating rebuilds, much like past windfalls for Chicago with Bedard.
Spotlight on Gavin McKenna: The consensus top prospect
Gavin McKenna tops rankings as the premier North American skater for 2026, earning high marks from NHL Central Scouting by a “considerable margin.” NHL.com The Penn State freshman has exceeded expectations in his NCAA debut, blending elite skill and physicality. His commitment to college over junior hockey marked a bold move, leveraging NIL opportunities and drawing massive attention. Elite Prospects ESPN
McKenna’s game features explosive skating, playmaking vision, and a lethal shot—traits that fit Toronto’s need for a top-line winger. Despite early-season hurdles and off-ice legal issues that were later dropped, his stock remains sky-high. Scouts praise his all-around growth, positioning him as a safe No. 1 pick.
For the Leafs, McKenna represents a reset button. Pairing him with existing core pieces could jumpstart contention, echoing how Edmonton built around McDavid.
Recent highlights from Penn State showcase his dominance, with highlight reels flooding YouTube. YouTube As the draft nears, his trajectory points to franchise-changer status.
Comparisons to past college stars like Adam Fantilli underline McKenna’s potential impact. Toronto’s sim win feels poetic given their lottery history.
Ivar Stenberg: A Swedish powerhouse for St. Louis
Ivar Stenberg ranks neck-and-neck with McKenna as the draft’s top talent, excelling in Sweden’s SHL with Frolunda. ClutchPoints The left winger’s complete game—no weaknesses on ice—makes him a dream pick. His size, skill, and compete level draw Jack Hughes parallels.
St. Louis, rebuilding post-uprising, gains a cornerstone here. Stenberg’s international pedigree, including U18 success, signals NHL readiness.
The Blues’ extra pick at 15 adds depth, but Stenberg anchors the haul. His SHL production against men sets him apart from peers.
Analysts project him thriving in high-event divisions, boosting St. Louis’ attack alongside young guns.
Mid-round gems and team fits
Vancouver snags Caleb Malhotra, a two-way OHL center ideal for their pivot needs. Chicago bolsters defense with WHL standout Carson Carels.
Rangers and Flames target NCAA blueliners Verhoeff and Lawrence, addressing pro-ready rearguards. Swedish and Finnish defenders like Smits and Gustafsson highlight Europe’s strength.
Later picks like Reid and Rudolph offer size and mobility for Kraken and Jets. This class’s blue-line bounty could stabilize contenders.
Trades, like Blues’ via Detroit, add intrigue—mirroring real deadline moves.
What this simulation means for the 2026 draft landscape
This Tankathon run, available at Tankathon’s 2026 NHL mock draft simulator, captures the draft’s unpredictability. With lottery odds tightening, teams are maneuvering fiercely. For Leafs and Blues, it’s a blueprint for hope.
The real lottery will decide fates, but McKenna and Stenberg lead a loaded class. As standings finalize, expect more sims to stir debate.
Fans should watch closely— a single bounce could echo for decades, much like Chicago’s recent hauls. The 2026 draft promises to redefine contenders.
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Par Mike Jonderson
Mike Jonderson is a passionate hockey analyst and expert in advanced NHL statistics. A former college player and mathematics graduate, he combines his understanding of the game with technical expertise to develop innovative predictive models and contribute to the evolution of modern hockey analytics.