Bedard Carlsson Robertson Set To Redefine RFA Market In 2026

Connor Bedard posted career highs of 30 goals, 45 assists and 75 points in only 69 games on his expiring three-year entry-level deal carrying a $950,000 cap hit.

Bedard and Carlsson Face Identical Bridge-or-Long-Term Choices

Bedard’s 75 points in 69 games outpaced Leo Carlsson’s 67 points in 70 games, yet both 20-year-olds carry identical $950,000 entry-level cap hits into restricted free agency. Chicago and Anaheim must therefore weigh whether a three- or four-year bridge or a six- or seven-year extension better secures their most important player.

Carlsson recorded 29 goals and 38 assists, establishing new personal bests while anchoring the Ducks’ top line. A long-term deal at eight figures per season would mirror the trajectory already projected for Bedard and lock Anaheim into a cornerstone for the next decade and a half.

The Blackhawks view Bedard as non-negotiable; any bridge contract merely delays an inevitable eight-figure annual salary. Anaheim faces the same math with Carlsson, whose ceiling as the franchise’s most talented player makes retention mandatory.

Both organizations will therefore absorb the higher AAV rather than risk an offer sheet or arbitration, because losing either player would reset their rebuild timelines by multiple seasons.

Robertson’s Durability and Arbitration Leverage Shift the Negotiation

Jason Robertson, already 26, delivered 45 goals and 96 points in 82 games after two consecutive 80-point seasons, proving his 2022-23 peak of 109 points was no fluke. His four-year, $7.75-million cap hit expires this summer, and he carries arbitration rights the younger RFAs lack.

Dallas has never missed a Robertson game in four straight seasons, giving GM Jim Nill maximum motivation to retain the club’s leading scorer. An offer sheet from another club would force an immediate match because the Stars cannot replace 96 points of production overnight.

Robertson’s situation contrasts sharply with Bedard and Carlsson: he needs no bridge deal and can command term immediately, yet the Stars must still create cap space alongside fellow RFA Mavrik Bourque’s 20 goals and 41 points in his sophomore campaign.

League-Wide Cap Ripple Effects Begin This July

Pavel Dorofeyev’s 37 regular-season goals and 10 playoff tallies already illustrate how one RFA signing can tilt a contender’s window; the same logic applies at higher dollars to the top three names. Every team below the cap ceiling must now model eight-figure commitments for Bedard and Carlsson while Dallas simultaneously protects Robertson.

Columbus, Philadelphia and Los Angeles will watch these negotiations closely, knowing their own RFAs Adam Fantilli, Trevor Zegras and Brandt Clarke will seek comparable raises relative to production. The precedent set this summer will compress bridge-deal windows and accelerate long-term extensions across the league.