Columbus Blue Jackets season outlook 2025-26: roster reset, new voices and a playoff push

The Columbus Blue Jackets enter the 2025-26 campaign carrying the weight of four consecutive seasons outside the playoff picture, yet the mood around Nationwide Arena feels unmistakably different this October. A top-three lottery finish in June delivered franchise defenseman Ivan Mirov at No. 3 overall, president of hockey operations John Davidson finally found his coaching anchor in veteran bench boss Todd McLellan, and the front office cleared north of $9 million in cap space by moving pending UFAs. Add a healthy Zach Werenski, a slimmed-down Elvis Merzļikins and a handful of prospects who forced their way onto the roster in September, and suddenly the conversation has shifted from “rebuild” to “relevant.” Below is a position-by-position look at how realistic a postseason return has become, what still keeps the hockey-ops staff awake at night, and the milestones that will decide whether the Union Blue is playing past mid-April for the first time since the 2019-20 bubble year.

Columbus Blue Jackets season outlook 2025-26: projected forward lines and scoring depth

McLellan has made one thing crystal clear during camp: the organization will no longer gift top-nine minutes to veterans on reputation alone. That edict produced the most competitive intrasquad scrimmages Columbus has seen in years and left the coaching staff with legitimate options on every line.

1. Top line – Johnny Gaudreau – Boone Jenner – Kirill Marchenko
   Gaudreau’s 74-point bounce-back in 2024-25 quieted doubters who wondered if the 5-foot-9 winger could still drive play without Sean Monahan-type support. Jenner, freshly re-signed for three years, remains the emotional rudder and the club’s best net-front presence. The wild card is Marchenko, whose 32-goal sophomore season was lost to a December shoulder injury. If the 24-year-old Russian can stay healthy, this trio has the blend of playmaking, heaviness and finishing to threaten a 75-goal combined pace.

2. Second line – Adam Fantilli – Sean Kuraly – Yegor Chinakhov
   Fantilli’s Calder-finalist freshman year (.87 points per game) convinced management that the 19-year-old is ready for true top-six duty. Kuraly’s defensive reliability frees Fantilli to roam, while Chinakhov’s one-timer gives the unit a shooting element opponents must respect. The key question is face-offs: Fantilli won only 43% last season, so Kuraly will take most draws on his strong side.

3. Third line – Kent Johnson – Cole Sillinger – Emil Bemström
   This is where McLellan’s meritocracy shows up most. Johnson, the 2022 fifth-overall pick, spent half of last year in Cleveland refining away-from-puck habits. He returned 12 pounds heavier and wins battles he used to avoid. Sillinger’s wrist shot is NHL-ready, but the 21-year-old must stay above 50% on dot work to keep the trust of a coach who values possession. Bemström, finally waiver-exempt no longer, adds sneaky penalty-kill value and 15-goal upside.

4. Fourth line – Dmitri Voronkov – Justin Danforth – Mathieu Olivier
   Voronkov’s 6-foot-4 frame and willingness to crash lanes give Columbus a different look late in games. Danforth’s league-minimum deal remains one of the best bargains in hockey for a player who draws penalties at a team-high rate. Olivier is the designated heavyweight, but McLellan has told him he must “skate first, hit second” to stay in the lineup.

Key depth: Alexander Nylander, Trey Fix-Wolansky and 2024 second-round pick Luca Pinelli push from the press box. If any of the skill kids slump, McLellan won’t hesitate to insert fresh legs, a stark change from the previous regime’s loyalty-based rotations.

Columbus Blue Jackets season outlook 2025-26: blue-line overhaul anchored by Werenski-Mirov

No position group underwent a louder facelift. Out went the band-aid acquisitions of Erik Gudbranson and Andrew Peeke; in came a commitment to puck-moving and activation that should help a club that finished 29th in shots on goal from the point.

• Top pair – Zach Werenski – Ivan Mirov
  Werenski’s knee is finally pain-free after the meniscus cleanup that cost him 51 games in 2023-24. He looked like his old self at the Worlds, quarterbacking Team USA to silver. Mirov, the 18-year-old Moscow product, signed his ELC within 24 hours of being drafted and proceeded to log 22 minutes a night in the KHL playoffs. His edge work and four-way mobility evoke a young Ivan Provorov, but the North American rink size will be an adjustment. McLellan plans to start Mirov on the third pair for 10 games before evaluating a bump alongside Werenski.

• Second pair – Damon Severson – David Jirček
  Severson’s first season in Ohio was uneven—he produced 41 points but was on the ice for 12 more goals against than expected. Jirček, the 2022 sixth-overall selection, used a dominant AHL playoffs (9 points in 11 games) to force his way up. At 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds, he adds snarl and a heavy slap shot that should juice the second power-play unit.

• Third pair – Jake Bean – Erik Černák (trade acquisition)
  Bean’s camp was stellar; he led all defenders in controlled exits and looked quicker after an off-season spent with skating consultant Barb Underhill. Tampa Bay’s cap crunch allowed Columbus to pry Černák away for a conditional third and Bemström’s rights. The Slovak brings exactly the playoff-style heaviness Columbus has lacked, and his 56% defensive-zone win rate will free Bean to jump into the rush.

Goaltending impact: Because the defense is designed to activate, expect more “high-low” passes that can lead to odd-man breaks the other way. That puts additional strain on the goaltender to read lateral plays, something Elvis Merzļikins focused on all summer with new goalie coach Thomas Speer.

Columbus Blue Jackets season outlook 2025-26: goaltending battle and analytics forecast

For the first time in five years, Columbus enters October without a predetermined No. 1. Merzļikins shed 17 pounds, switched to a shorter paddle and posted a .932 save percentage in the preseason. Daniil Tarasov, 25, countered with a shutout against Buffalo and a league-best 1.81 goals-against average among goalies with three or more starts. The analytics department projects a near 50-50 split unless one goalie runs hot.

Projected numbers (per Evolving-Hockey model):

• Merzļikins: 38 GP, 2.91 GAA, .908 SV%, 3.2 GSAx
• Tarasov: 40 GP, 2.78 GAA, .912 SV%, 4.7 GSAx

The biggest variable is health. Merzļikins has not played 50 games since 2021-22, while Tarasov’s groin strain last March lingers in the medical staff’s memory. If both stay upright, Columbus could jump from 30th in team save percentage (.885) to league average (.905), translating to roughly 22 extra goals saved—equal to eight standings points, the exact margin that kept them out of the wild card a year ago.

Columbus Blue Jackets season outlook 2025-26: special teams, systems tweaks and Todd McLellan’s imprint

McLellan’s Oilers and Kings clubs finished top-10 in power-play efficiency seven times in the last decade, and he’s already installed a 1-3-1 look that maximizes Werenski’s one-timer from the left half wall. The preseason produced 10 goals on 36 chances (27.8%), albeit against watered-down lineups. Still, the structure is sound: Gaudreau acts as the bumper, Fantilli the low-slot trigger man, and Marchenko the back-door finisher.

On the kill, Columbus finished 31st last season (73.2%). McLellan brought over assistant Trent Yawney, who helped the Kings rank top-five in shorthanded shot suppression. The new scheme pressures entries at the red line, then collapses into a “wedge” that forces shots from 45-degree angles. Early returns: opponents managed only three high-danger shots in 24 preseason minutes.

Quote to note:
“We’re not asking players to be perfect, we’re asking them to be predictable to each other,” McLellan said after a 5-1 preseason win over Pittsburgh. “When you know where your teammate is, you can play faster, and that’s how you survive in this league.”

Columbus Blue Jackets season outlook 2025-26: prospects ready to pop and pipeline depth

The organization’s prospect pool graduated three impact players last year (Fantilli, Jirček, Voronkov), yet the cupboard is far from bare. Keep an eye on:

1. Jordan Dumais, RW – The 2022 third-round pick led the QMJHL in scoring two seasons ago and tallied 59 points in 67 AHL games as a 20-year-old. His 5-foot-9 frame scares some scouts, but his elusiveness is reminiscent of Cam Atkinson. Expect a mid-season call-up if injuries strike the right wing.

2. Stanislav Svozil, LD – A hip injury stalled his North American debut, but he was the youngest alternate captain in AHL history last year. Svozil’s gap control is NHL-ready; he just needs to add 10 pounds before McLellan trusts him against top competition.

3. Cole Clayton, RD – The 2023 fourth-rounder is a right-shot with a 95-mph slap shot. He’ll start in Cleveland, but power-play time there could fast-track him the way it did Jirček.

For a deeper dive into how Columbus rebuilt its farm system after the Panarin/Saad sell-off, see our season review of the Cleveland Monsters’ breakout year on NHL Insight.

Columbus Blue Jackets season outlook 2025-26: biggest risks that could derail a playoff push

Even the rosiest projections come with caveats. Three stand out:

1. Injury volatility – Werenski, Marchenko and Merzļikins have each missed 30-plus games in the past two seasons. The East Metropolitan gauntlet (Carolina, the Rangers, New Jersey) offers little margin for another star absence.

2. Face-off fragility – Columbus finished dead last at 45.3% last year. McLellan brought in consultant Manny Malhotra, but only Jenner (52.1%) and Kuraly (51.4%) won more than half their draws. If Fantilli and Sillinger don’t improve, the Jackets will spend too much time chasing possession.

3. Schedule quirk – The club plays 16 sets of back-to-backs, tied for most in the NHL, and 14 are in the final 10 weeks when points are at a premium. Tarasov’s ability to steal games on the second night will decide whether Columbus is a buyer or seller at the March 14 trade deadline.

Columbus Blue Jackets season outlook 2025-26: record prediction and what success looks like

The Athletic’s projection model slots Columbus 88 points—four shy of the final wild-card spot—while MoneyPuck is slightly more bullish at 91. Both algorithms bake in positive regression from goaltending and the arrival of Mirov, yet remain skeptical about the Jackets’ ability to win 50-50 games inside a division that sent five teams to the postseason last spring.

Reasonable best-case: 43-32-7 (93 points)

• Werenski plays 80 games, Mirov wins Calder, Merzļikins/Tarasov split duties at .910 SV%, and special teams jump to 20% PP / 80% PK. That puts Columbus in a dogfight with the Islanders and Capitals for the eighth seed.

Floor-case: 35-40-7 (77 points)

• Another Werenski injury, Fantilli sophomore slump, and the goaltending platoon regresses to league-worst .885. The front office then pivots, trading pending UFAs like Jenner at the deadline and re-entering the lottery.

X-factor: The March schedule includes seven games against Detroit, Ottawa and Buffalo—direct competitors for the wild card. If the Jackets are within three points of a spot by March 1, ownership has green-lit GM Don Waddell to add a middle-six rental, reversing the franchise’s traditional sell-off narrative.

Columbus Blue Jackets season outlook 2025-26: final takeaways for fans

Nationwide Arena hasn’t hosted a playoff game since the cannon-smoke celebration of the 2020 qualifying round, and the fan base understandably suffers from skepticism fatigue. Still, the confluence of an elite defensive prospect, a proven NHL coach, improved health metrics and a cap structure that finally bends toward flexibility gives this iteration of the Union Blue a credible path to the tournament. Expect bumps—especially in October as Mirov acclimates and the face-off woes sort themselves out—but by February the Jackets should be in every headline scrap. If the goaltending merely becomes average, Columbus will be playing meaningful hockey in April, and that alone would mark the most successful season in half a decade.