Whether your fantasy hockey team lifted the trophy this season or crashed out early, the offseason is the perfect time to start plotting for 2026-27. ESPN’s Sean Allen has dropped his way-too-early top 250 rankings, with Connor McDavid holding down the No. 1 spot ahead of Nathan MacKinnon.[1] These projections draw from four-year statistical trends, age comparables, and ice-time benchmarks, offering a solid baseline before playoffs, free agency, and the draft shake things up.
The list highlights elite production across categories, blending proven stars with breakout youngsters. McDavid’s speed and playmaking keep him atop, while MacKinnon’s consistency makes him a close second. Rookies like Macklin Celebrini crack the top five already.[2]
Building the projection model
The rankings stem from a sophisticated model that weighs recent performance heavily. For skaters, it forecasts goals, assists, shots, hits, blocks, and power-play points over a full 82 games. Goalies get a mix of personal rates and team shot/save projections, ranked via value-over-replacement to capture true scarcity.
This approach accounts for age curves and comparables. A 25-year-old center logging top-line minutes gets benchmarked against past elites like Sidney Crosby in his prime. Trends from the last four seasons dominate, ensuring recency bias favors hot streaks without ignoring sustainability.
Playoff performances will influence final prep, but free agency could reshuffle lines. The NHL draft adds prospects like Celebrini, whose rookie comps boost his early rank. Allen notes this is a starting point, evolving with summer moves.[1]
Team context matters too. Edmonton’s firepower elevates McDavid and Evan Bouchard, while Colorado’s depth props up MacKinnon. Projections scale to full seasons, penalizing injury-prone players.
Changes loom large. A deep playoff run for Tampa Bay could solidify Nikita Kucherov at No. 4, but trades might vault surprises higher.
Top 10 players to target early
McDavid tops the board as Edmonton Oilers C1, his elite speed and point-per-game pace unmatched. Nathan MacKinnon follows as Colorado Avalanche C2, blending scoring with hits for multi-cat appeal.
Macklin Celebrini debuts at No. 3 for San Jose Sharks C3, his rookie projections mirroring past stars. Nikita Kucherov holds RW1 for Tampa Bay, power-play dominance key. Evan Bouchard sneaks into D1 at fifth for Oilers, quarterbacking the top unit.
Here’s the top 10:
- Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers, C1
- Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche, C2
- Macklin Celebrini, San Jose Sharks, C3
- Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning, RW1
- Evan Bouchard, Edmonton Oilers, D1
- Nick Suzuki, Montreal Canadiens, C4
- Matt Boldy, Minnesota Wild, LW1
- Wyatt Johnston, Dallas Stars, C5
- Martin Necas, Colorado Avalanche, RW2
- Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota Wild, LW2
Suzuki’s two-way reliability and Boldy’s shooting make them safe floors. Johnston’s Stars upside shines, while Necas thrives post-trade to Colorado.
These picks set draft tone. In dynasty formats, check our fantasy hockey dynasty rankings through 2030-31 for long-term holds.
Rising stars shaking up the order
Young guns dominate mid-ranks. Celebrini at three signals prospect impact, comped to explosive rookies past. Wyatt Johnston climbs to eight, his Stars role expanding.
Juraj Slafkovsky hits LW4 at 17th for Canadiens, power forward traits blooming. Dylan Holloway slots C6 at 15th with Blues, breakout potential high. Leo Carlsson enters at 29th, Ducks center with sniper tools.
Prospects like Matthew Schaefer (D5, Islanders) and Lane Hutson (D14, Canadiens) pepper the list. Schaefer’s two-way game echoes top young blueliners.
Ivan Demidov ranks RW18 at 83rd, Habs winger with KHL flash. Gavin McKenna (LW17, TBD) and Michael Misa (C27, Sharks) tease future steals.
For ESPN’s prior rankings context, see their 2025-26 top players guide. These risers reward patient drafters.
Defensemen and goalies in focus
Evan Bouchard at five leads D-men, Oilers power-play maestro. Cale Makar lurks at 12th (D2, Avalanche), elite all-around. Jake Sanderson (D3, Senators) and Zach Werenski (D4, Jackets) follow.
Matthew Schaefer and Moritz Seider round top defenses. Brandt Clarke (D7, Kings) and Jackson LaCombe (D8, Ducks) add youth.
Goalies start with Andrei Vasilevskiy G1 at 13th (Lightning), playoff pedigree huge. Connor Hellebuyck G2 (20th, Jets) and Jake Oettinger G3 (34th, Stars) provide stability. Mackenzie Blackwood cracks G4 at 37th (Avalanche tandem).
Value-over-replacement elevates netminders fairly. Ilya Sorokin G5 and Filip Gustavsson G8 offer upside. Scarcity makes them roster locks.
Streamers like Jakub Dobes (G11) emerge later. Prioritize Vasilevskiy in rounds 2-3.
Sleepers, bust risks, and draft strategy
Sleepers abound. Dylan Guenther RW4 (24th, Mammoth) shoots volume. Sam Reinhart RW5 (25th, Panthers) sustains scoring.
Dylan Holloway and Seth Jarvis (RW3, 14th) mix hits/points. Logan Cooley C21 (69th, Mammoth) rebounds.
Bust watches: Injury histories for Jack Hughes (30th) or Jack Eichel (43rd). Age for vets like Sidney Crosby (107th).
Draft multi-cat: McDavid/MacKinnon for points/hits/shots. Pair with Bouchard for PP edge. Stash prospects like Cole Hutson D16.
Monitor playoffs; a Cup run boosts values. Free agency could flip Necas higher.
As opening night nears in October, tweak based on news. These rankings give a head start toward contending.[1]
McDavid and MacKinnon remain the draft anchors, but rookies add excitement. Build around them, layer value, and fantasy glory awaits in 2026-27.
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Par Mike Jonderson
Mike Jonderson is a passionate hockey analyst and expert in advanced NHL statistics. A former college player and mathematics graduate, he combines his understanding of the game with technical expertise to develop innovative predictive models and contribute to the evolution of modern hockey analytics.