The Toronto Maple Leafs hit the jackpot at the 2026 NHL draft lottery on May 5, winning the No. 1 overall pick despite entering with just an 8.5% chance.[1][2] This windfall comes at a perfect time for new general manager John Chayka and senior executive advisor Mats Sundin, who were hired just days earlier on May 3.[3] Consensus top prospect Gavin McKenna, the elite playmaking left winger from Penn State, projects as their likely selection.[4]
But why stop at one franchise-altering pick? An opinion piece in The Hockey News suggests the Leafs should swing big, trading for a second top-five selection to pair McKenna with a top defenseman and kickstart a new era.[5]
Remembering Brian Burke’s draft masterstroke
In 1999, Vancouver Canucks GM Brian Burke wasn’t content with the third overall pick. He orchestrated trades to secure both the No. 2 and No. 3 selections, drafting Henrik and Daniel Sedin.
Those twin brothers transformed Vancouver into a perennial contender, combining for over 1,800 points and leading the team to the 2011 Stanley Cup Final.
Burke’s gamble paid dividends for over a decade, proving that doubling down at the draft can reshape a franchise.
Chayka, known for his analytics-driven approach from his Coyotes days, could channel that old-school boldness.[6]
The Sedins’ success underscores the value of elite talent acquired through aggressive wheeling and dealing.
Leafs fans still dream of similar homegrown stars anchoring the lineup.
The 2026 draft’s top prizes
The full lottery order sets the stage: Toronto at No. 1, San Jose Sharks at No. 2, Vancouver Canucks at No. 3, Chicago Blackhawks at No. 4, and New York Rangers at No. 5.[7] See the complete first-round order here.
McKenna tops most rankings with his vision, scoring touch, and WHL dominance before NCAA success.[8] He could supercharge Auston Matthews’ quest for another Rocket Richard Trophy.
Behind him, defensemen shine. Keaton Verhoeff (North Dakota, NCHC) ranks high with his size (6’4”, 212 lbs) and two-way game.[9]
Other blue-liners like WHL star Carson Carels or Latvia’s Alberts Smits offer offensive upside.
- Top defensemen targets:
- Keaton Verhoeff: NCAA standout, elite skating and shot.
- Chase Reid: Right-shot D with puck-moving skills.
- Potential internationals for depth.
This class addresses Toronto’s need for back-end help after Chris Tanev’s injury-plagued season.
Viable trade partners for picks No. 2 or 4
The Sharks hold No. 2 and crave veterans to complement their rebuild. Mike Grier might listen if offered proven scoring like William Nylander, a perennial 40-goal threat.
Chicago at No. 4 pairs intrigue with Connor Bedard. Nylander as his right winger could tempt, netting the Leafs a top D prospect.
Vancouver clings to No. 3, but their history with Burke-era moves adds nostalgia.
TSN’s Jeff O’Neill floated the idea: “Wheel and deal. Try to get the No. 2 pick from San Jose, get a defenseman, get another prospect.”[5] Watch the full Overdrive clip.
Such deals would require sweeteners like second-rounders.
Blockbuster trades reshape contenders overnight.
The steep price tag involved
Acquiring another top-five pick demands sacrifice. Trading Nylander would sting offensively, even if McKenna offsets some production.
Toronto’s core—Matthews, Marner, Rielly—stays intact, but depth pieces or prospects sweeten offers.
Chayka must convince stars like Matthews that a balanced roster with young D trumps star power alone.
Long-term entry-level contracts make draftees cost-controlled for 15 years.
Fans might balk at moving a Swede who’s thrived in Toronto.
Yet, history shows bold GMs win Cups.
Building a balanced powerhouse
Leafs defense lagged offensively this year, lacking puck-movers beyond Morgan Rielly.
A top D pick rejuvenates the corps, pairing with Jake McCabe or new blood.
McKenna boosts the top six, feeding Matthews amid his scoring dip.
Better balance means deeper playoff runs, Matthews’ priority.
Explore McKenna’s scouting report for his fit.
This duo could define the next decade.
The front office duo of Chayka and Sundin has resources to execute.[10]
Why this move makes sense now
Chayka’s fresh mandate post-lottery win offers momentum.[10] With the draft looming, acting fast maximizes value.
Nylander could thrive elsewhere, like San Jose’s rise.
Toronto gains youth, cap flexibility, and contention window extension.
A better-balanced team excites Matthews and fans.
If not now, when? The lottery gift demands ambition.
Frequently Asked Questions
Par Mike Jonderson
Mike Jonderson is a passionate hockey analyst and expert in advanced NHL statistics. A former college player and mathematics graduate, he combines his understanding of the game with technical expertise to develop innovative predictive models and contribute to the evolution of modern hockey analytics.