The 2016 Draft: What If Matthew Tkachuk Had Been Drafted by the Edmonton Oilers

The 2016 NHL Draft stands as one of the most pivotal moments in Edmonton Oilers history—and not for the reasons management would have hoped. With the fourth overall selection, the Oilers had an opportunity to select Matthew Tkachuk, a gritty, skilled winger who would go on to become one of the league’s premier power forwards. Instead, they chose Finnish prospect Jesse Puljujärvi, a decision that has sparked countless “what if” scenarios among fans and analysts alike. The ramifications of that choice have echoed through nearly a decade of playoff disappointments, roster construction challenges, and ultimately, a Stanley Cup Final loss to Tkachuk’s Florida Panthers in 2024.

The alternate history where Tkachuk wears the orange and blue isn’t just idle speculation—it’s a glimpse into how one draft decision can fundamentally alter a franchise’s trajectory. Former Oilers GM Craig MacTavish revealed that Tkachuk had an “unreal” interview with the organization and even visited his home before the draft. Tkachuk himself believed Edmonton would select him, telling his father Keith that the Oilers were “the team that I think is going to draft me.” Yet when the Columbus Blue Jackets surprisingly took Pierre-Luc Dubois third overall, Edmonton faced an unexpected decision that would haunt them for years to come.

The draft day decision that changed everything for the Edmonton Oilers and Matthew Tkachuk

The 2016 NHL Entry Draft unfolded in Buffalo with the Toronto Maple Leafs selecting Auston Matthews first overall, followed by the Winnipeg Jets taking Patrik Laine second. When Columbus shocked the hockey world by choosing Dubois at third, Jesse Puljujärvi—widely considered a top-three talent—suddenly became available to Edmonton. The 6’4” Finnish winger had dominated at the World Junior Championships and possessed the size-skill combination that seemed perfect for the modern NHL.

MacTavish later disclosed that the Oilers’ internal discussions centered on three players: Puljujärvi, Tkachuk, and defenseman Mikhail Sergachev. There was significant support within the organization for Tkachuk, with MacTavish admitting “there was plenty of support for Matt.” However, a combination of positional bias toward defensemen and the unexpected availability of Puljujärvi influenced the final decision. Even Kris Knoblauch, who would later become the Oilers’ head coach, texted media personality Bob Stauffer urging the team to select Tkachuk, calling him “an absolute pain…and he’s got a lot of skill.”

The Calgary Flames, meanwhile, couldn’t believe their fortune when Tkachuk remained on the board at sixth overall. They immediately selected the son of former NHL power forward Keith Tkachuk, acquiring a player who embodied everything their rivalry with Edmonton needed. Tkachuk brought skill, snarl, and an ability to elevate his game in crucial moments—qualities that would define his career and intensify the Battle of Alberta to heights not seen in decades.

Looking back at the 2016 draft class reveals just how consequential that fourth overall pick proved to be. Matthews became a perennial MVP candidate in Toronto. Laine exploded onto the scene with a 44-goal rookie campaign. Dubois developed into a solid two-way center. And while Puljujärvi struggled to find consistent footing in the NHL, Tkachuk immediately made an impact, recording 48 points in his rookie season and establishing himself as one of the league’s most effective agitators.

Matthew Tkachuk’s career trajectory compared to Jesse Puljujärvi’s struggles with Edmonton

Matthew Tkachuk’s NHL career has been nothing short of spectacular, validating every ounce of pre-draft hype. In his rookie season with Calgary, he posted 13 goals and 35 assists for 48 points in 76 games, earning Calder Trophy consideration. More importantly, he demonstrated the intangibles that separate good players from franchise cornerstones—leadership, competitiveness, and an ability to impact games beyond the scoresheet. His physical play, net-front presence, and willingness to antagonize opponents made him an instant fan favorite in Calgary and a villain everywhere else.

By his third NHL season, Tkachuk had established himself as an elite winger, recording 77 points in 80 games during the 2018-19 campaign. He continued ascending, eventually posting a career-high 104 points (42 goals, 62 assists) during the 2021-22 season with Calgary. That performance placed him among the NHL’s top scorers and demonstrated his ability to drive offensive production at an elite level. When Calgary traded him to Florida in a blockbuster deal before the 2022-23 season, Tkachuk immediately elevated the Panthers, recording 109 points in his first year with the franchise.

Puljujärvi’s development story couldn’t have been more different. After making Edmonton’s roster out of training camp in 2016, he appeared in 28 games as a teenager, scoring one goal and adding seven assists. The following season saw his ice time fluctuate wildly as the Oilers shuffled through coaching changes and roster adjustments. Despite flashes of the skill that made him a top-five pick, Puljujärvi couldn’t establish chemistry with Edmonton’s stars or carve out a consistent role in the lineup.

By 2019, the relationship between Puljujärvi and the Oilers had deteriorated to the point where the young Finn requested a trade and eventually returned to Finland to play for Kärpät in the SM-liiga. His absence lasted nearly two years, during which time he attempted to rediscover his confidence and offensive touch. When he finally returned to Edmonton for the 2020-21 season, he showed improvement, recording 25 points in 55 games and demonstrating better chemistry with McDavid. However, consistency remained elusive, and in 2023, the Oilers traded him to Carolina for minimal return—a quiet end to what once held such promise.

The contrast between the two players’ careers extends beyond raw statistics. Tkachuk has appeared in 82 playoff games through his career, recording 52 goals and 89 points in the postseason—clutch production that includes leading Florida to the 2024 Stanley Cup championship. Puljujärvi, conversely, managed just 114 points in 353 career NHL games and never found the playoff success that defines star players. In a cruel twist of fate, Puljujärvi signed with the Florida Panthers in March 2025, briefly playing alongside the very player who could have been his teammate in Edmonton.

How the Edmonton Oilers’ roster would have changed with Matthew Tkachuk alongside McDavid

Imagining Matthew Tkachuk in an Oilers uniform requires envisioning an entirely different offensive ecosystem. From 2016 onward, Edmonton’s primary concern has been finding the right complementary pieces for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. While they’ve cycled through numerous wingers—Milan Lucic, Zack Hyman, Evander Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—none combined Tkachuk’s unique blend of skill, physicality, and competitive fire. Tkachuk on McDavid’s wing would have created one of the most dangerous lines in hockey, combining the world’s best playmaker with a premier net-front presence.

Tkachuk’s playing style would have addressed several persistent Oilers weaknesses. His willingness to establish position in the crease and battle for loose pucks would have maximized McDavid’s playmaking genius. Instead of relying solely on speed and skill, Edmonton would have possessed a power forward capable of dominating the dirty areas where playoff games are won. Tkachuk’s 42-goal season in 2021-22 demonstrated his finishing ability, while his consistent 100-point campaigns proved he could produce at an elite level without sacrificing the physical edge that makes him special.

The Battle of Alberta would have taken on an entirely different character with Tkachuk wearing Oilers colors. Instead of becoming public enemy number one in Edmonton—particularly after his notorious incidents with Zack Kassian—Tkachuk would have been the player Oilers fans adored and opponents despised. The rivalry that defined Western Conference hockey from 2019-2022 would have lacked its central antagonist, fundamentally altering the narrative of one of hockey’s greatest modern rivalries.

From a roster construction perspective, having Tkachuk on an entry-level contract from 2016-2019 would have provided Edmonton crucial financial flexibility during their competitive window. While Puljujärvi bounced between the NHL and AHL, Tkachuk’s immediate impact would have strengthened the Oilers during their 2017 playoff run—when they advanced to the second round before losing to Anaheim. A player of Tkachuk’s caliber might have tilted that series in Edmonton’s favor, potentially altering the franchise’s trajectory for years.

The long-term implications extend beyond single seasons or playoff series. Tkachuk’s presence would have influenced every subsequent roster decision—from free agent signings to trade deadline acquisitions to draft strategies. Instead of perpetually searching for the gritty, skilled winger to complement their stars, the Oilers would have possessed that piece from the beginning. The organizational culture might have shifted as well, with Tkachuk’s leadership and intensity setting a different tone in the dressing room than what developed during their years of inconsistency.

The impact on the 2024 Stanley Cup Final if Matthew Tkachuk had been drafted by Edmonton

The 2024 Stanley Cup Final between the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers provided the cruelest possible reminder of the 2016 draft decision. There was Matthew Tkachuk, wearing the “A” on his Panthers jersey, dominating games with his physical presence, timely scoring, and leadership. Meanwhile, Edmonton’s roster still lacked that prototype power forward who could match Tkachuk’s impact in the gritty, contested battles that defined the series. The Panthers prevailed in seven games, with Tkachuk playing a central role in Florida’s championship run.

If Tkachuk had been an Oiler in 2024, the Cup Final matchup would never have occurred—at least not with the same teams. Florida’s acquisition of Tkachuk in 2022 transformed them from a good team into a championship contender. His 109 points in 2022-23 and continued excellence in 2023-24 provided the Panthers with the elite scoring they needed to complement Aleksander Barkov. Without Tkachuk, Florida’s trajectory toward championship contention would have been far less certain.

More importantly, Tkachuk’s presence on the Oilers throughout the preceding seasons might have resulted in Edmonton already possessing a Stanley Cup by 2024. The 2020 playoff loss to Chicago, the 2021 sweep by Winnipeg, the 2022 defeat by Colorado—each series featured moments where Tkachuk’s style of play could have made a difference. His ability to score crucial goals, draw penalties, and physically impose himself on opponents addresses the exact deficiencies that plagued Edmonton in their playoff failures.

In the actual 2024 Final, the Oilers struggled to generate consistent offense from their depth players and lacked the physical presence needed to match Florida’s intensity. Tkachuk, meanwhile, recorded crucial points throughout the playoff run and played a leadership role that helped Florida navigate adversity. Former Oilers coach Craig MacTavish’s revelation that the team seriously considered Tkachuk adds another layer of frustration for Edmonton fans watching him celebrate with the Cup.

The emotional impact of watching Tkachuk succeed while Puljujärvi faded from the NHL cannot be understated for Oilers fans. Every Tkachuk goal, every physical play, every interview where he discussed winning culture—all served as reminders of what might have been. The fact that Puljujärvi ended up signing with Florida and briefly playing alongside Tkachuk only amplified the irony. Two players connected by the 2016 draft, finally together in Florida, with only one having realized his potential.

Lessons from the 2016 draft and what the Edmonton Oilers should have done differently

The decision to select Puljujärvi over Tkachuk reveals several organizational blind spots that plagued the Oilers during their rebuilding years. First, the emphasis on “best player available” ignored the importance of competitive character and proven performance in high-pressure situations. Tkachuk had demonstrated his ability to elevate his game when stakes were highest, while Puljujärvi’s dominance came against junior competition. The psychological makeup that separates NHL stars from prospects who flame out deserved more weight in the evaluation process.

MacTavish’s admission that positional bias influenced their decision highlights another critical error. While defensemen were indeed valuable in 2016, reaching for need over talent rarely works in the NHL draft. The Oilers already possessed McDavid and Draisaitl—two generational offensive talents. Adding a third elite forward who complemented their skill sets made more sense than drafting for positional balance. Tkachuk’s game was specifically designed to maximize players like McDavid, making him a natural fit regardless of organizational depth charts.

The Oilers’ evaluation process also apparently underweighted Tkachuk’s pedigree and hockey lineage. As the son of Keith Tkachuk—a 500-goal scorer who embodied power forward excellence—Matthew possessed an understanding of what it takes to succeed at hockey’s highest level. His competitive instincts were shaped by growing up in an NHL household, providing intangible advantages that can’t be measured in combine tests or junior statistics. This type of hockey intelligence often separates good prospects from future stars.

Another lesson involves the importance of organizational conviction. Bob Stauffer’s revelation that Kris Knoblauch texted him urging the Oilers to draft Tkachuk suggests that some within hockey circles recognized his special qualities. The fact that this perspective didn’t prevail indicates decision-making processes that may have relied too heavily on consensus or draft rankings rather than trusting experienced hockey minds who identified Tkachuk’s unique value proposition.

Finally, the 2016 draft serves as a reminder that NHL success requires both talent identification and player development. While Puljujärvi certainly bears responsibility for his career trajectory, the Oilers’ unstable coaching situation and inconsistent roster construction didn’t provide an ideal environment for a young player to flourish. Would Puljujärvi have developed differently in Calgary’s more stable organization? Possibly. But Edmonton’s selection of Tkachuk would have rendered that question moot—his talent and character were substantial enough to thrive in any environment.

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The alternate history where Matthew Tkachuk becomes an Edmonton Oiler remains one of the most tantalizing “what ifs” in recent NHL history. A lineup featuring McDavid, Draisaitl, and Tkachuk would have formed one of the league’s most formidable trios, combining elite skill with physical dominance and competitive intensity. The Battle of Alberta would have unfolded differently, playoff disappointments might have become championship parades, and the 2024 Stanley Cup Final could have featured Tkachuk hoisting the Cup in Oilers colors rather than Panthers teal.

Yet dwelling on missed opportunities provides little solace for a franchise still searching for its first championship since 1990. The 2016 draft serves as both a cautionary tale and a learning experience—a reminder that draft decisions carry consequences that reverberate for years. As the Oilers continue building around their generational talents, they’ll inevitably face similar crossroads where the right choice could define a generation. For now, Matthew Tkachuk’s success with Florida stands as testament to what Edmonton let slip away, and Jesse Puljujärvi’s struggles serve as a reminder that not every top-five pick becomes a star. The difference between championship contention and perpetual frustration often comes down to a single decision on draft day.