The Maple Leafs Without Mitch Marner: Impact on 2025-26 Performance

The absence of Mitch Marner looms large over the Toronto Maple Leafs as the 2025-26 season approaches the American Thanksgiving benchmark—a critical point where roughly 75 percent of teams in playoff positions ultimately secure postseason berths. Through their first 21 games, the Maple Leafs sit at a pedestrian 9-9-3 record, good for seventh place in the Atlantic Division and well below the organization’s perennial expectations of contending for a Stanley Cup. While general manager Brad Treliving made the calculated decision to let Marner walk in free agency, the early returns suggest the team has neither adequately replaced his production nor adjusted their style of play to compensate for the loss of one of the NHL’s premier two-way wingers.

Sportsnet insider Elliotte Friedman captured the sentiment perfectly in his 32 Thoughts column, writing, “I’m not interested in re-litigating the past, but it’s impossible to look at their current struggles without recognizing the connection to his departure. Marner was everywhere: gobbling up points, getting it to Auston Matthews, entering zones, power play, penalty-kill, defending leads and a huge part of the off-ice social construct.” This comprehensive void has left the Maple Leafs searching for answers across multiple facets of their game.

The Toronto Maple Leafs missing Mitch Marner impact on offensive production

The offensive drop-off without Marner has been stark and quantifiable. During his final season in Toronto, Marner generated 2.78 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five while the team scored 3.15 actual goals per 60 minutes with him on the ice. These weren’t empty-calorie stats—they represented genuine play-driving ability that created sustainable offense. The Maple Leafs routinely out-chanced and outshot opponents when Marner skated, with their scoring chance share dropping 9.5 percent and high-danger chance share falling 10.2 percent when he hit the bench.

The power play has particularly suffered without Marner’s vision and creativity. His ability to quarterback the top unit from the half-wall, identify passing lanes that others couldn’t see, and make quick decisions under pressure turned Toronto’s man-advantage into one of the league’s most dangerous weapons. Through 20 games this season, the power play conversion rate has dipped noticeably, with players forced into unfamiliar roles and the rhythmic passing sequences that defined previous seasons replaced by more individualistic, less effective attempts.

Even-strength offense tells an equally concerning story. Marner’s departure created a cascading effect throughout the lineup, forcing middle-six players into top-six minutes they aren’t equipped to handle. The additions of Scott Laughton, Nicolas Roy, and Dakota Joshua—brought in to add grit and defensive responsibility—have combined for modest production but cannot replicate Marner’s 100-point pace. Matias Maccelli has been the brightest spot among newcomers and projects for a respectable 40-50 point season, yet that represents less than half of what Marner consistently delivered.

The underlying numbers reveal the true extent of the problem. The team’s xG% (expected goals share) was nearly five percent worse last season when Marner wasn’t on the ice, indicating his presence single-handedly tilted territorial advantage in Toronto’s favor. That swing has become the new normal rather than the exception, with the Maple Leafs now routinely finding themselves on the defensive side of the shot clock.

How the Maple Leafs are struggling without Marner’s play-driving ability

What made Marner truly special wasn’t just his point production—it was his unique ability to process the game at elite speed while not necessarily being the fastest skater in traditional terms. His top skating speed ranked in the 97th percentile last season, but more importantly, his cognitive processing allowed him to play fast without the puck and make decisions that kept offensive possessions alive. This “play fast” mentality has vanished from Toronto’s game, replaced by a more methodical, predictable approach that defenses easily neutralize.

The Maple Leafs have lost their identity as a transition threat. Marner’s knack for controlled zone entries—either carrying the puck himself or making the perfect pass to a teammate at full speed—kept opposing defenses on their heels. This season, too many offensive sequences begin with dump-ins and board battles rather than clean possession entries, forcing the team to expend more energy fighting for pucks instead of creating dangerous scoring opportunities. The result is a more tired, less effective group particularly evident in third periods.

Team speed has become an alarming issue that compounds the play-driving problem. According to NHL Edge data, the Maple Leafs ranked fifth in speed bursts between 18-20 mph in 2021-22 and fourth in 2022-23. This season, they’ve plummeted to 16th in their best category—speed bursts of 22 mph or more. While the league average features four players per team recording at least two 20-plus mph bursts per game, Toronto has just one: Bobby McMann at 2.7, ranking 38th league-wide.

This lack of acceleration has turned the Maple Leafs into a “slower” team in a league that’s trending faster. Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic noted the polarization: as Toronto’s speed bursts above 18 mph per game have decreased since 2021-22, the rest of the league has seen an increase. The team ranks 26th in speed bursts per game overall, creating a fundamental mismatch against opponents who can consistently outrace them to loose pucks and beat them up the ice on counterattacks. This problem is particularly acute in the Atlantic Division, where teams like Florida, Tampa Bay, and Boston have prioritized speed and skill.

The ripple effect on Auston Matthews’ performance

The connection between Marner’s departure and Auston Matthews’ early-season struggles cannot be ignored. The two superstars logged over 766 minutes together at five-on-five last season, posting a dominant 54.7 xG% and a +13 goal differential (44-31). In the mere 186 minutes Matthews played away from Marner, his xG% plummeted to 45.76 percent, with his scoring chance and high-danger chance shares dropping underwater.

Matthews’ individual decline has become more pronounced without Marner’s play-driving support. Justin Bourne of Sportsnet highlighted concerning trends in Matthews’ game, including reduced offensive zone time, decreased hardest shot speed, and lower top skating velocity. While some of this represents natural career trajectory for a player who has logged heavy minutes for years, Marner’s presence masked these declines by consistently putting Matthews in advantageous situations.

The captain’s lower body injury suffered on November 11 against the Boston Bruins represented the cruelest blow in an already difficult adjustment period. Watching the team struggle through a five-game losing streak without him underscored how much the organization had leaned on its twin pillars. With one pillar gone and the other sidelined, the structural weaknesses became impossible to ignore. The team managed to snap the skid with a 3-2 overtime win against St. Louis, but the victory felt more like a temporary reprieve than a true turning point.

The chemistry Matthews developed with Marner over nine seasons cannot be replicated quickly or easily. New linemate Matthew Knies shows promise as a quality NHL player but lacks Marner’s elite vision and playmaking ability. This forces Matthews to create more offense independently, leading to lower-percentage shots and increased physical punishment from defenders who can focus their attention exclusively on him. The result is predictable: fewer high-danger chances, more perimeter play, and the statistical decline that’s sparked uncomfortable questions about Matthews’ long-term trajectory.

Team speed and style of play concerns in 2025 season

The Maple Leafs’ shift toward a slower, more grinding style predates Marner’s departure but has accelerated without his speed and skill to counterbalance it. General manager Brad Treliving’s acquisitions since the trade deadline—Scott Laughton, Nicolas Roy, Dakota Joshua—reflect a clear philosophical lean toward size and defensive responsibility over pure offensive talent. While these players have their merits, the cumulative effect has been a roster that wins fewer puck races and generates less transition offense.

Head coach Craig Berube’s system emphasizes structure and defensive-zone coverage, which theoretically should make the team harder to play against. However, without Marner’s elite transitional ability to turn defense into offense quickly, the Maple Leafs often find themselves pinned in their own end for extended shifts. The inability to break out cleanly leads to more icings, more defensive-zone faceoffs, and ultimately more goals against—a vicious cycle that has contributed to the team’s sub-.500 start.

The eye test confirms what the data reveals. Where previous Maple Leafs teams attacked with pace and creativity, the current iteration appears methodical and predictable. Opponents have learned to stack the defensive blue line, forcing Toronto to dump and chase rather than carrying possession into the offensive zone. Without Marner’s escapability and passing acumen to beat those defensive stands, the team too often surrenders possession and spends energy defending rather than attacking.

This stylistic disconnect becomes particularly evident on special teams. The penalty kill misses Marner’s active stick and ability to pressure puck carriers while also being a short-handed threat. The power play, as previously noted, lacks the rhythmic passing and creativity that made it one of the league’s best. Even in late-game situations, the absence of a player who could be trusted in all situations—protecting a lead or pressing for a tying goal—has forced Berube to rely on less versatile options.

What the Maple Leafs must do to replace Marner’s production

The harsh reality is that replacing a 100-point player through external acquisition is nearly impossible in today’s NHL. The free agency pool dried up quickly after Florida Panthers stars re-signed, and the trade market for elite talent requires assets Toronto no longer possesses—particularly after trading away first-round picks unless they finish in the bottom five. This limitation forces Treliving to explore internal development and creative lineup solutions rather than blockbuster moves.

Several young players must accelerate their development to fill the void. Nicholas Robertson needs to translate his AHL success into consistent NHL production. Matthew Knies must continue evolving his two-way game while adding more offensive creativity. Pontus Holmberg and Fraser Minten represent wild cards who could provide depth scoring if given expanded opportunities. The organization’s scouting and player development staff face intense pressure to identify and nurture talent capable of contributing at a higher level.

The coaching staff must also adapt their systems to mask the team’s speed deficiencies. This might mean implementing more stretch passes to create odd-man rushes, utilizing a more aggressive forecheck to pin opponents deep rather than relying on neutral-zone speed, or restructuring zone entry strategies to emphasize quick puck movement rather than individual skill. Berube’s championship pedigree in St. Louis proves he can adjust his approach, but the current roster’s limitations present his biggest challenge since arriving in Toronto.

Treliving faces a franchise-defining decision over the next two months. If the team cannot climb back into playoff position by early January, he must honestly assess whether a retool makes more sense than a futile playoff push. A bottom-five finish would guarantee a top-five pick in a reportedly loaded draft class, providing a foundation piece for 2026-27 and beyond. Alternatively, aggressive midseason trades could signal a win-now mentality that seems increasingly unrealistic given the current product on ice.

The Maple Leafs cannot continue adding players like Laughton and Roy while expecting different offensive results. The organization must target skill and speed in any future acquisitions, even if it means sacrificing some defensive stability. This might mean exploring European free agents, taking chances on reclamation projects from other organizations, or making the difficult decision to trade from their defensive depth for forward help. The status quo will only perpetuate mediocrity.

Conclusion

The Toronto Maple Leafs missing Mitch Marner impact on the 2025 season extends far beyond the simple subtraction of points from the lineup. His departure exposed underlying issues with team speed, play-driving ability, and roster construction that were previously masked by elite talent. While Matthews’ injury compounded these problems, the team’s struggles predated his absence and reflect a fundamental inability to replace Marner’s multifaceted contributions.

Success this season requires unlikely developmental leaps from young players, significant tactical adjustments from the coaching staff, and potentially difficult long-term decisions from management about the organization’s direction. The Maple Leafs cannot become a faster team overnight, but they can play smarter, emphasize possession over dump-and-chase, and create systems that maximize their remaining strengths rather than highlighting their weaknesses.

American Thanksgiving arrives as a crucial inflection point. Historically, teams outside playoff positions at this juncture face long odds of recovery. The next 20 games will define not only this season but potentially the next several years of Maple Leafs hockey. Whether they push forward with the current core or pivot toward a comprehensive retool, one truth remains undeniable: Mitch Marner’s shadow will continue looming over this franchise until they find a way to forge a new identity without him.