Maple Leafs Should Trade Down From No. 1 in 2026 Draft

Ray Ferraro questioned why the Maple Leafs would not trade down two or three spots from the No. 1 pick if McKenna and Stenberg are not head and shoulders above the defensemen.

Draft consensus remains unsettled

Ferraro noted that conversations with six different people produced six different views on the top prospect and on whether Toronto should keep the pick. Consensus rankings place Gavin McKenna first and Ivar Stenberg second, yet three or four defensemen sit within a narrow talent band immediately behind them. The gap between the top two forwards and the next tier of blue-liners is measured in fractions of a point on scouting charts rather than in full tiers.

Toronto’s front office therefore faces a binary choice on draft night. Selecting McKenna or Stenberg commits the organization to a forward whose projected ceiling matches several available defensemen. Moving down two or three spots preserves the ability to land one of those defensemen while adding a mid-first-round pick or a prospect already in the system.

The Leafs’ current roster construction reinforces the arithmetic. The team finished the 2025-26 season outside the top-eight in the Eastern Conference and holds no realistic path to a Stanley Cup roster through one draft selection. Adding a single high-end forward does not close the gap to contending clubs that already possess established top-pair defensemen.

Asset acquisition outweighs positional need

Ferraro framed the decision explicitly: if the two forwards are not head and shoulders above the defensemen, Toronto should explore moving down and acquiring another asset. A partner willing to jump two or three spots would surrender a first-round pick in 2027 or a young NHL-ready player. That extra asset compounds faster than the marginal difference between the projected No. 1 and No. 4 selections.

Historical precedent shows teams that traded down from the top spot in similar draft classes gained multiple future assets while still landing impact players. The 2026 class depth supports the same outcome. Three or four defensemen project as top-pair contributors; any of them can anchor Toronto’s blue line for a decade.

The Leafs’ stated offseason goals of adding a scoring winger and a top-pair defenseman collide with the reality that neither McKenna nor Stenberg solves both problems simultaneously. Trading down supplies the second asset required to address the actual roster holes.

Organizational timeline favors flexibility

Toronto’s management group, led by general manager John Chayka, begins its tenure with the No. 1 selection. Retaining the pick locks the franchise into one path; trading down keeps multiple paths open. Ferraro emphasized that the Leafs are not close to contending, making asset accumulation the higher-priority objective.

A move down two spots still allows Toronto to select the highest-rated defenseman or the third-ranked forward, depending on how the board falls. The added pick or prospect accelerates the rebuild timeline by one to two seasons compared with standing pat.

Unless the Leafs identify a clear No. 1 before June 2026, trading down two spots will deliver at least one additional first-round asset by the 2027 draft.