New Jersey Devils projected lineup vs Tampa Bay Lightning: who’s in, who’s out, and what it means for Tuesday night

The Devils hit Benchmark International Arena on Tuesday carrying a 13-4-1 record and the league’s best points percentage, but they’ll do it with a roster that still looks more like a MASH unit than a Metropolitan juggernaut. Jack Hughes (finger), Brett Pesce (hand) and five other regulars remain on the shelf, yet reinforcements are finally trickling in. Dougie Hamilton, Connor Brown and Evgenii Dadonov all traveled to Tampa after Monday’s full-team practice, and head coach Sheldon Keefe says two of the three could draw in against a Lightning club desperate to climb back to .500.

Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is 9-7-2 and stuck in 29th place on the power play (15.3 %). Victor Hedman practiced Monday and is questionable, while Nick Paul (upper body) will sit for at least one more game. The Bolts need a statement win before Thursday’s visit from Edmonton; the Devils want to finish a five-game road swing 4-1-0 and keep pace with Carolina atop the division. Below is the most up-to-date look at how both sides could line up, the tactical ripple effects, and a couple of under-the-radar match-ups that could decide the night.

New Jersey Devils projected lineup vs Tampa Bay Lightning: forward combinations

If Hamilton and Brown are cleared at game-time (Keefe called them “probable”), expect this top-nine:

1. Arseny Gritsyuk – Nico Hischier – Jesper Bratt
2. Timo Meier – Dawson Mercer – Connor Brown
3. Ondrej Palat – Juho Lammikko – Stefan Noesen
4. Shane Lachance – Luke Glendening – Paul Cotter

Scratched: Nathan Legare, Colton White
Injured: Jack Hughes, Evgenii Dadonov (fractured hand), Zack MacEwen, Marc McLaughlin, Cody Glass

The biggest surprise is Gritsyuk skating on the top line. The 23-year-old Russian has only eight NHL games under his belt, but Keefe likes his straight-line speed and net-front tenacity—traits that free up Bratt to roam the half-wall and Hischier to overload the strong side. Brown’s return slides Meier back to left wing on the second line, where his shot volume (4.2 per 60 at 5-on-5) should re-ignite Mercer, who cooled off after a white-hot October. Palat’s reunion with Lammikko and Noesen keeps the checking line intact that stifled Ovechkin’s unit in Washington on Saturday.

Should Dadonov sneak into the lineup later in the trip, Keefe hinted he could bump Lachance and give the fourth line a dual-threat look on the cycle. Until then, New Jersey will rely on Glendening’s 58.1 % face-off rate to start in the DZ against Point or Cirelli.

New Jersey Devils projected lineup vs Tampa Bay Lightning: defensive pairs

With Hamilton on the cusp, the blue line is suddenly three deep on the right side. Keefe ran these duels Monday:

• Jonas Siegenthaler – Simon Nemec
• Brenden Dillon – Luke Hughes
• Dennis Cholowski – Dougie Hamilton

Scratched: Ethan Edwards (emergency recall), Colton White
Injured: Brett Pesce, Johnathan Kovacevic

The trickle-down effect is massive. Nemec has shouldered top-pair minutes for a month and leads all rookie defenders in expected-goals share (54.1 %). Sliding him beside Siegenthaler—the league’s most underrated gap-closer—lets Keefe keep Nemec away from Kucherov’s line at even strength. Hamilton’s return also trims Luke Hughes’ exposure; the 20-year-old has dazzled offensively but owns a team-worst 3.8 giveaways per 60. Pairing him with Dillon, the Devils’ heaviest defender (225 lbs), gives Hughes a safety valve when he activates off the rush.

If Hamilton can’t go, Edwards draws in. The University of Michigan product is a defense-first skater who logged 19 AHL games without a minus rating; his recall is insurance against a Tampa forecheck that has generated the fifth-most high-slot shots since November 1.

New Jersey Devils projected lineup vs Tampa Bay Lightning: goaltending rotation

Jacob Markstrom was first off the ice at Tuesday’s morning skate and is expected to make his fourth start in five games. The Swede is 8-2-0 with a .925 save percentage in November, including a 42-stop masterpiece in the 3-2 shootout win over Washington. Jake Allen backs up after a 28-save relief effort in Chicago last week; Keefe reiterated the plan is “Marky’s net” until the schedule tightens next week.

Tampa Bay Lightning projected lineup vs New Jersey Devils

Coach Jon Cooper shook up his forward groups after Sunday’s 6-2 clunker versus Vancouver. The most likely alignment:

1. Jake Guentzel – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
2. Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – Zemgus Girgensons
3. Gage Goncalves – Dominic James – Oliver Bjorkstrand
4. Curtis Douglas – Yanni Gourde – Jack Finley

Scratched: Scott Sabourin, Declan Carlile
Injured: Nick Paul, Ryan McDonagh, Pontus Holmberg, Victor Hedman (questionable), Max Crozier (questionable)

The headline is Hedman. If the big Swede suits up, expect J.J. Moser to drop to the third pair and Darren Raddysh to sit. Without Hedman, Tampa’s breakout suffers: the Lightning own a 46 % controlled-exit rate when he’s off the ice, third-worst in the NHL. That invites the Devils’ aggressive F1-F2 pinch, a tactic we broke down in last week’s Islanders vs Devils preview.

Key match-ups and tactical nuggets

1. Nemec vs Kucherov – New Jersey’s rookie already logged 7:12 head-to-head against 86 last season and held him to one shot. Expect Keefe to hard-match that pair at 5-on-5.
2. Devils’ fourth line forecheck – Lachance-Glendening-Cotter averages 11 seconds per shift in the OZ, the quickest among NJ forwards. Their job: force Tampa’s young third pair (Lilleberg-Cernak) into quick reversals.
3. Lightning power-play tweak – Cooper moved Kucherov to the left dot and Point to the bumper vs Vancouver, hunting a one-timer channel. The Devils’ PK ranks 3rd (87.8 %); Hamilton’s return gives them another 6-foot-6 shot blocker to seal the royal-road pass.
4. Markstrom’s rebound control – Tampa generates 31 % of its offense off second chances, highest in the East. Markstrom’s 5.3 rebound attempts against per 60 is the sixth-lowest among starters, a quiet reason New Jersey has allowed only eight 5-on-5 goals in the last six games.

Fantasy / betting quick hits

• Jesper Bratt has five multi-point efforts in his last eight vs Tampa; he’s +220 to record 2+ points on FanDuel.
• Under 6.0 goals cashed in eight of the last ten meetings; both teams are top-10 in limiting inner-slot shots since November 1.
• Simon Nemec o1.5 shots on goal is priced at -105. He’s averaged 2.3 with Hamilton out and should keep that volume if paired with Siegenthaler.

What it means for the standings and beyond

A regulation win vaults the Devils to 29 points and keeps them neck-and-neck with Carolina, whom they face Saturday in Newark. More importantly, it would cap a 4-1-0 road trip accomplished without Hughes, Pesce or Hamilton for the bulk of it—proof that the club’s defensive buy-in is real, not circumstantial. For Tampa, two points pulls them within striking distance of Detroit for the final wild-card spot and buys time for Paul, Hedman and McDonagh to heal. Lose, and the Bolts fall to 9-8-2 with Edmonton and Toronto on deck, a hole that could look ugly by U.S. Thanksgiving.

The Devils have already shown they can win “in all different sorts of ways,” as Connor Brown told reporters Monday. If their walking wounded keep trending up, Tuesday night might be the first glimpse of what this roster looks like when the band gets back together—right in time for a measuring-stick matchup against the team that ended their season 18 months ago.