NHL 2025-26 early season surprises and disappointments

The 2025-26 NHL season has delivered its share of jaw-dropping moments through the first month of play, leaving fans and analysts scrambling to reassess their preseason predictions. From unexpected contenders surging up the standings to highly-touted rosters stumbling out of the gate, October has served as a stark reminder that nothing is guaranteed in professional hockey. The early weeks have painted a fascinating picture of triumph and struggle, with several teams and players defying expectations in both directions.

As we transition into November, it’s time to take stock of which teams have exceeded expectations and which have left their fanbases searching for answers. The NHL’s unpredictable nature has been on full display, with basement-dwellers playing like contenders and championship hopefuls looking utterly lost. These early trends may not define entire seasons, but they provide valuable insight into which rosters have found the right formula and which are still searching for an identity.

NHL 2025-26 early season surprises and disappointments: teams exceeding expectations

The Winnipeg Jets’ solid foundation

The Winnipeg Jets have established themselves as one of the more consistent performers in the early going, posting a 7-3-0 record through their first ten games. While this may not represent the dominant start some other squads have managed, it demonstrates the type of steady, reliable hockey that wins divisions over the long haul. The Jets have shown improved depth scoring and defensive structure, building on lessons learned from previous playoff disappointments.

What makes Winnipeg’s start particularly impressive is the balanced contribution across all four lines. Rather than relying exclusively on their top guns, the Jets have received timely scoring from unexpected sources. Their special teams have been particularly effective, with the power play clicking at an impressive rate while the penalty kill has frustrated opposing top units. This well-rounded approach suggests sustainability rather than a flash-in-the-pan hot streak.

The defensive corps has stepped up significantly, limiting high-danger chances and making life easier for their goaltenders. Veterans have provided steady leadership while younger players have seized expanded opportunities. This defensive foundation allows the Jets to win games in multiple ways, whether through offensive explosions or tight-checking defensive battles.

Looking ahead, the Jets’ early success positions them well for a playoff push, though maintaining this level of play over 82 games remains the challenge. The team’s ability to grind out wins even when not at their best speaks volumes about their mental toughness and systematic approach. If they can stay healthy and maintain their defensive identity, Winnipeg should remain in the thick of the Central Division race.

Pittsburgh’s unexpected resurgence

Few experts predicted the Pittsburgh Penguins would be competitive in 2025-26, yet they’ve silenced critics with a scorching 7-2-2 start. The addition of Justin Brazeau has provided exactly the kind of net-front presence the Penguins desperately needed, particularly on Evgeni Malkin’s line. At 6-foot-5, Brazeau has transformed Pittsburgh’s second line into a matchup nightmare, using his imposing frame to create chaos in the offensive zone.

Brazeau’s six goals through the early weeks have energized a lineup many believed was too old to contend. His willingness to engage physically and battle for loose pucks has complemented Malkin’s playmaking brilliance perfectly. The chemistry between the two has developed far quicker than anyone anticipated, giving Pittsburgh a legitimate secondary scoring threat behind Sidney Crosby’s line.

Beyond Brazeau’s individual contributions, the Penguins have benefited from improved goaltending and a defensive structure that limits odd-man rushes. The team has clearly bought into a more responsible defensive system while still generating enough offense to win games. This balance has been the key to their surprising start and suggests this might not be a temporary hot streak.

The question now becomes whether Pittsburgh can maintain this pace as the season progresses and bodies begin to wear down. The core veterans are another year older, and the grueling NHL schedule has a way of exposing weaknesses. However, for now, the Penguins are proving that reports of their demise were greatly exaggerated, and they’re positioning themselves as a potential playoff team in a competitive Eastern Conference.

Chicago’s youth movement paying dividends

The Chicago Blackhawks entered the season with modest expectations, but the emergence of Frank Nazar has accelerated their rebuild ahead of schedule. The sophomore center has exploded with 11 points in 10 games, providing the secondary scoring the team desperately needed alongside Connor Bedard. Nazar’s confidence with the puck and ability to attack off the rush have given Chicago’s young core a dynamic element that was missing last season.

Nazar’s development represents exactly what the Blackhawks envisioned when they drafted him. His hockey IQ and playmaking ability have translated seamlessly to the NHL level, and he’s shown a maturity beyond his years in high-pressure situations. The chemistry he’s developed with his linemates has created a legitimate second scoring line that opponents must respect, taking pressure off Bedard’s shoulders.

The Blackhawks’ early success isn’t solely about individual performances—it’s about a collective growth mindset. Young players are learning to compete at the NHL level while veterans provide guidance and stability. The team is developing an identity built on speed and skill, which should serve them well as they continue building toward contention. For more insights on memorable moments from the early season, Chicago’s young guns have provided plenty of highlight-reel plays.

While the Blackhawks likely won’t maintain their current pace throughout the entire season, this early success provides invaluable experience and confidence. The organization can see tangible evidence that their rebuilding plan is working, and fans have reason to believe the dark days are finally ending. If Nazar continues developing and Bedard takes another leap forward, Chicago could find themselves competing for a playoff spot sooner than expected.

The New York Islanders’s surprising offensive explosion

Patrick Roy’s impact on the New York Islanders has been immediate and dramatic, particularly in transforming their offensive approach. The Islanders’ top line of Jonathan Drouin, Bo Horvat, and Emil Heineman has been pure magic through the opening weeks, combining for highlight-reel goals and sustained offensive pressure. Drouin’s creativity, Horvat’s finishing ability, and Heineman’s power forward game have created unexpected chemistry that’s terrorizing opposing defenses.

This trio represents everything Roy is trying to instill in his roster—aggressive offensive play with calculated risk-taking. Gone is the defensive-first mentality that characterized previous Islanders teams. Instead, New York is attacking with speed and confidence, generating scoring chances in bunches. The psychological impact of Roy’s offensive philosophy has liberated players who previously felt constrained by conservative systems.

The supporting cast has also elevated their games, feeding off the top line’s energy and production. Role players are contributing timely goals while the defense has been more active jumping into the rush. This more dynamic style has made the Islanders far more entertaining to watch while also producing tangible results in the standings.

Sustainability remains the primary concern, as this offensive surge may regress toward league averages as the season progresses. Opponents will adjust their game plans and defensive schemes to counter the Islanders’ attack. However, the confidence gained from this early success could prove invaluable, and Roy has clearly established a new identity that should keep New York competitive throughout the season.

NHL 2025-26 early season surprises and disappointments: struggling contenders

Nashville’s nightmare scenario unfolds

Perhaps no team has disappointed more dramatically than the Nashville Predators, whose offseason additions of Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault were supposed to catapult them into contention. Instead, the Predators have stumbled badly, with their expensive new acquisitions struggling to find chemistry and the entire roster looking disjointed. The team’s offensive output has been anemic, and defensive breakdowns have plagued them in critical moments.

According to reports on Nashville’s struggles, Stamkos has particularly disappointed after signing a four-year deal with an $8 million annual cap hit. The transition from Tampa Bay to Nashville has proven far more difficult than anticipated, with Stamkos looking a step slow and unable to generate the scoring chances he routinely created with the Lightning. His power-play production, once a given, has dried up at the worst possible time.

Marchessault has fared slightly better but still hasn’t approached the form that made him a Stanley Cup champion with Vegas. The chemistry expected to develop between Nashville’s new pieces simply hasn’t materialized, and coach Andrew Brunette appears to be running out of line combination options. The lack of cohesion extends beyond the forward group, as defensive miscues have put additional pressure on goaltending that hasn’t been sharp enough to bail out the skaters.

The Predators’ early-season failures raise serious questions about roster construction and whether these veteran pieces can still perform at an elite level. Nashville committed significant term and money to players on the wrong side of 30, gambling that their experience and skill would translate immediately. Instead, they’re learning the painful lesson that past performance doesn’t guarantee future success, and chemistry cannot be purchased—it must be developed. Time is running out for Nashville to salvage their season before falling too far behind in the competitive Central Division.

Tampa Bay’s power outage

The Tampa Bay Lightning’s struggles have centered largely on Brayden Point’s inexplicable goal drought, with the star center managing just two goals through ten games. Point has been the Lightning’s most consistent offensive threat in recent years, but his scoring touch has mysteriously vanished just when Tampa needs it most. The ripple effects of his slump have impacted the entire lineup, as the Lightning rank 22nd in goals with only 29 through their opening stretch.

Point’s struggles go beyond simple bad luck or hitting posts. His shot volume has decreased, his positioning in the offensive zone appears tentative, and his linemates are feeling the pressure to compensate. The Lightning’s offensive system has historically relied on Point’s ability to create dangerous chances through the middle of the ice, and without that threat, opposing defenses can focus more attention on other Tampa weapons.

The timing of Point’s slump couldn’t be worse, as the Lightning need every point they can secure while adapting to roster changes and aging veterans. Tampa’s championship window hasn’t completely closed, but it’s narrowing rapidly, and they can’t afford extended dry spells from core players. The coaching staff has tried various line combinations and power-play configurations, searching for anything that might reignite Point’s scoring instincts.

If Point can rediscover his finishing ability, the Lightning still possess enough talent to compete for a playoff position. However, every game that passes with Tampa struggling to score increases the pressure and makes the eventual turnaround more difficult. The Lightning need their star center to break through soon, or this disappointing start could define their entire season and potentially signal the end of their championship era.

Washington’s aging superstar showing mortality

Alex Ovechkin entered the 2025-26 season chasing immortality, needing just a handful of goals to surpass Wayne Gretzky’s all-time record. Instead, the Great Eight has looked eerily quiet through the early weeks, displaying fewer shots, less burst, and the faintest hint that Father Time has finally caught up to hockey’s greatest goal scorer. Ovechkin is currently on pace for career lows in both goals (16) and shots on goal (180), alarming statistics for someone whose career has been defined by relentless offensive production.

The physical decline appears genuine rather than a temporary slump. Ovechkin’s first step has slowed, limiting his ability to get to his signature spot on the left circle. Opposing defenders are closing gaps more effectively, and Ovechkin doesn’t have the speed to beat them to loose pucks anymore. Even when he does get shooting opportunities, the legendary release appears fractionally slower, giving goaltenders that extra split-second to react.

Washington’s entire offensive structure has been built around maximizing Ovechkin’s scoring for over a decade and a half. If he can’t produce at an elite level, the Capitals lack the depth scoring to compensate. The team invested heavily in supporting pieces designed to feed Ovechkin the puck, but those complementary players aren’t equipped to carry the offensive load themselves. This fundamental roster construction issue threatens Washington’s playoff hopes if the captain can’t find his form.

Perhaps this is simply another October slow burn from a player who’s had inconsistent starts before. Maybe Ovechkin will heat up and make this analysis look foolish by season’s end. However, the evidence suggests something more permanent might be happening—that even the greatest goal scorer in NHL history must eventually surrender to age and physics. How Ovechkin and the Capitals respond to this adversity will define not just their season but potentially the final chapter of a legendary career.

St. Louis sinking fast

Robert Thomas and the St. Louis Blues have endured a nightmarish start to the 2025-26 campaign, posting a dismal 3-6-1 record through their first ten games. While Thomas’s underlying metrics with his line haven’t been completely disastrous, his recent injury has compounded the Blues’ problems and left them searching desperately for offensive consistency. The team’s inability to generate sustained pressure and finish scoring chances has been a recurring theme, and Thomas’s absence only magnifies these weaknesses.

Beyond Thomas’s struggles and subsequent injury, the Blues have suffered from catastrophically poor goaltending. Jordan Binnington, once a playoff hero, is mired in one of his worst stretches in years. His save percentage and goals-against average have been well below league averages, turning winnable games into frustrating defeats. When your goaltender can’t provide timely saves, even solid defensive play becomes meaningless, and St. Louis has experienced this reality repeatedly.

The Blues’ defensive structure has also deteriorated, with odd-man rushes and high-danger chances becoming far too common. Young defensemen are making critical errors at inopportune moments, while veterans appear to have lost a step. This combination of porous defending and shaky goaltending has created a toxic environment where confidence evaporates with each passing loss.

St. Louis faces a critical juncture early in the season. They must find solutions quickly or risk falling so far behind that even a midseason surge won’t salvage a playoff berth. The Central Division is brutally competitive, and teams can’t afford extended losing streaks. The Blues need Thomas healthy, Binnington to rediscover his form, and the entire roster to commit to a more responsible defensive system. Without these changes, their season could spiral beyond recovery before Thanksgiving.

NHL 2025-26 early season surprises and disappointments: goaltending chaos

The netminding graveyard

October 2025 will be remembered as one of the most chaotic months for goaltending in recent NHL history. Multiple netminders who would have been celebrated as “Scary Good” last season have found themselves on the opposite end of the spectrum this year. Sam Montembeault in Montreal, Dustin Wolf in Calgary, Linus Ullmark in Ottawa, and Jordan Binnington in St. Louis have all posted numbers dramatically worse than their career averages, leaving their respective teams scrambling for answers.

Montembeault’s struggles have been particularly surprising given his solid 2024-25 campaign. His save percentage has plummeted, and his inability to make key saves has opened the door for rookie Jakub Dobes to potentially steal the starting job. The pressure of being a number-one goaltender clearly weighs differently than serving as a reliable backup, and Montembeault hasn’t delivered consistently. Montreal’s defensive structure hasn’t helped, but starting goalies must make the occasional spectacular save to give their team a chance, and Montembeault hasn’t delivered consistently.

Wolf’s regression in Calgary has been equally concerning, as the Flames invested significant trust in the young netminder. His positioning has appeared shaky, and he’s allowing soft goals at critical moments. For analysis of early-season trends and performance, examining underlying metrics reveals that some goalies are facing tougher shot quality than others, but the save percentage numbers remain damning regardless of context.

Ullmark’s move to Ottawa was supposed to provide stability and veteran presence, yet he’s posting his worst numbers since 2018-19. The change of scenery hasn’t agreed with him, and questions are emerging about whether his Vezina-caliber season in Boston was an outlier rather than his true talent level. Binnington’s issues in St. Louis compound the Blues’ other problems, creating a perfect storm of disappointment. Some of these goalies will undoubtedly recover and rise from their early-season graves, while others might find themselves losing starting jobs by Christmas. The goaltending position’s volatility has never been more apparent than in October 2025.