NHL Bubble Watch 2025-26: Playoff Projections for All 32 Teams

The 2025-26 NHL season has delivered unprecedented parity, with 26 teams at or above .500 points percentage entering late December games. This marks the most competitive playoff race since the shootout era began in 2005-06, surpassing even the 2015-16 season’s record. ESPN’s latest bubble watch, powered by Stathletes and Money Puck probabilities, breaks down the locks, bubble teams, and lottery hopefuls across all divisions.

Current playoff bracket matchups highlight the chaos: In the East, Carolina faces Florida, New York Islanders take on Philadelphia, Detroit meets Washington, and Montreal battles Tampa Bay. Out West, Colorado plays San Jose, Dallas faces Minnesota, Edmonton draws Los Angeles, and Vegas confronts Anaheim. With 29 teams within four points of a spot, every game counts.

Atlantic division

Tampa Bay Lightning sit as locks with a 22-13-3 record and 99.4% playoff odds from Stathletes. Despite injuries to Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh, Erik Cernak, and Nick Paul, they’ve posted the East’s second-best points percentage at .618. Brayden Point’s production has dipped, but Nikita Kucherov dominates with 49 points in 34 games, leading the team by 10 over Jake Guentzel. An NHL coach called them the East’s team to beat at full strength, praising their bottom-six improvements.

Florida Panthers hold a wild-card spot at 21-15-3 but need work, with 71.9% odds. December’s 9-4-1 run showed offensive fire at 3.43 goals per game, fueled by Matthew Tkachuk’s impending return. Aleksander Barkov is likely lost for the season post-knee surgery, but Brad Marchand has shouldered the load with 22 goals and 44 points, including 14 on the power play. Stathletes projects 95.7 points to close strong.

Ottawa Senators (18-15-5) boast solid scoring at 3.21 goals per game but rank 23rd in goals against, hampered by a league-worst .872 save percentage. Linus Ullmark’s on leave, and Leevi Merilainen struggles at .862. Jake Sanderson anchors the blue line with 27 points and top WAR metrics in 25:08 average ice time. For deeper analysis on bubble teams like Ottawa, check our nhl bubble watch playoff projections for all 32 teams at the quarter-season mark.

Montreal Canadiens lead the division at 21-12-6 with 60% odds. Nick Suzuki (42 points) and Cole Caufield (18 goals) shine, alongside Lane Hutson and Ivan Demidov building Calder cases. The Noah Dobson trade pays off, and Jakub Dobes stabilizes goaltending over Sam Montembeault. Suzuki’s line with Juraj Slafkovsky boasts a 60.5% goals-for share.

Buffalo Sabres (20-14-4) surged to 59% odds, thanks to Alex Lyon’s December dominance (.921 save percentage) and a healthy Josh Norris. Tage Thompson’s 18 goals bolster U.S. Olympic hopes. Boston Bruins (20-18-2) lag at 33% odds but regained identity under Marco Sturm, led by David Pastrnak, Morgan Geekie (25 goals), and Jeremy Swayman.

Detroit Red Wings top the Atlantic at 23-14-3 (49 points) yet face just 12.8% Stathletes odds due to tight standings. Moritz Seider drives with 30 points from the blue line. Toronto Maple Leafs (18-15-6) tumble to 3.1% odds amid Auston Matthews’ decline and Mitch Marner’s absence.

Metropolitan division

Carolina Hurricanes lock in at 24-12-3 (99.3% odds), deepest offensively despite injuries to Seth Jarvis, Jaccob Slavin, and Pyotr Kochetkov. Brandon Bussi heroes in net with 13-1-1 and .911 save percentage. Washington Capitals (20-14-5) hold 91% odds, but power play woes linger; Tom Wilson leads with 19 goals.

Philadelphia Flyers (20-11-7) thrive at 61.6% odds despite fewest first goals scored, thanks to Rick Tocchet’s grit. Trevor Zegras heats up with 37 points. New York Islanders (22-14-4) get a boost from rookie Matthew Schaefer, with Bo Horvat’s 20 goals in 34 games stunning at 0.59 per game.

New Jersey Devils (20-17-2) hover at 47.9% post-Jack Hughes’ return (21 points in 20 games). Pittsburgh Penguins (17-12-9) falter without Evgeni Malkin, but Sidney Crosby pushes with 39 points. For insights on teams like the Devils on the edge, see our nhl teams at risk of missing the playoffs 2025-26: Early forecasts and key factors.

New York Rangers (19-17-5) and Columbus Blue Jackets (17-15-6) are long shots at 8.7% and 7.6% odds, respectively. Adam Fox and Zach Werenski carry offensively, but depth issues persist.

Central division

Colorado Avalanche dominate at 29-2-7 (65 points, 99.9% odds), eyeing records with 4.00 goals for and 2.18 against. Nathan MacKinnon’s 66 points pace a juggernaut. Minnesota Wild (24-10-6) transformed by Quinn Hughes trade, averaging 4.13 goals post-acquisition; Jesper Wallstedt stars at .931.

Dallas Stars (25-7-7) secure 98.9% odds behind Jake Oettinger and Casey DeSmith’s elite goaltending. Utah Mammoth (18-19-3) surprise at 75% Stathletes odds, led by Dylan Guenther’s 17 goals and 10 go-aheads.

Winnipeg Jets (15-18-4) and Nashville Predators (17-17-4) cling at 25% and 17.9% odds. Connor Hellebuyck returns post-surgery, Josh Morrissey steadies; Steven Stamkos heats up with 11 December goals. St. Louis Blues (15-17-8) scrape by at 11.7%, worst offense at 2.50 GPG. Chicago Blackhawks (14-18-7) fade to 0.1% without Connor Bedard.

Pacific division

Vegas Golden Knights (17-9-11) lock 99% odds despite injuries, strong at 5-on-5. Jack Eichel tallies 41 points in 31 games. Edmonton Oilers (20-14-6) bolster goaltending via trades, Connor McDavid erupts with 33 points in 14 games.

Los Angeles Kings (16-13-9) defend stoutly (2.55 GAA) at 80.2% odds, Darcy Kuemper shines. Anaheim Ducks (21-16-2) cool offensively to 73.2% odds, Lukas Dostal key early.

Calgary Flames (17-18-4) and Seattle Kraken (16-14-7) long-shot at single digits, goaltending strong but scoring weak. Nazem Kadri and Philipp Grubauer lead. San Jose Sharks (19-17-3) entertain at 5.1%, Macklin Celebrini dazzles with 60 points. Vancouver Canucks (16-20-3) rebuild at 1.8%.

For full standings and projections, visit ESPN’s NHL bubble watch.

As the season hits its midpoint, goaltending, injuries, and depth will decide bubble fates. Locks like Colorado and Carolina gear for deep runs, while parity promises twists. Expect trades to reshape the bracket by April—watch the wild cards closely. The Athletic’s projections echo this tight race, projecting point totals that could flip standings overnight.