The Edmonton Oilers sit third in the Pacific Division with 72 points and 16 games remaining in the regular season, holding a playoff spot but facing pressure from teams like Vegas and San Jose.[1][2] After back-to-back Stanley Cup Final losses to the Florida Panthers, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and the crew are hungry to go all the way this spring. Stathletes projections paint an optimistic yet challenging picture for their postseason path.
With fewer than 20 games left before the April 16 cutoff, every matchup counts. The Oilers’ upcoming tilt against the St. Louis Blues offers little drama, as the Blues are out of contention. Attention turns to division foes and potential first-round dance partners.
Oilers’ current standing and Pacific Division battle
Edmonton holds P3 in the Pacific with 72 points from 24 regulation wins, pacing for 89.5 points overall. They trail Anaheim (75 points, P1) and Vegas (74 points, P2), while San Jose lurks as WC2 with 68 points but 19 games left.[1]
The Ducks lead comfortably at 99% playoff odds, but Vegas sits at 95.9% and Edmonton at 93.6%. San Jose’s 61.7% chance adds intrigue, especially with their WC2 spot opposite Colorado.
Losers like Seattle (67 points, 15% odds) and LA (67 points, 19%) are nipping at heels but fading. Edmonton’s schedule includes winnable games against non-contenders, crucial for locking P3.
Post-trade deadline shifts have tightened the West. Our recent analysis of playoff standings after the deadline highlighted how deadline deals boosted Pacific frontrunners like Anaheim.
Maintaining third means avoiding slips against Central powerhouses. A recent 7-2 loss to Dallas underscores vulnerabilities, but a 4-3 win over Colorado shows resilience.
Likely first-round opponents
If the season ended now, Edmonton draws Vegas in the Pacific’s No. 2 vs. 3 matchup. Stathletes pegs this at 36.8% likelihood, the fifth-most probable Round 1 series.[1]
Anaheim looms at 17.4%, as P1 vs. WC1 Utah. Utah enters at 16.4%, holding WC1 with 74 points and 92.2% odds.
- Vegas Golden Knights (36.8%): Oilers are 2-0 with two games left, giving matchup edge.
- Anaheim Ducks (17.4%): Split 1-1, one game remaining; Ducks’ pace (94.6) pressures Edmonton.
- Utah Mammoth (16.4%): 1-0 for Oilers, two tilts ahead; wild-card volatility key.
These projections factor remaining schedules and strength of opponents. Edmonton’s experience against these foes could tilt early rounds.
Division familiarity breeds intensity. Vegas’ recent 6-2 win over Pittsburgh signals form, while Anaheim’s 4-6 Thursday loss to Toronto exposed cracks.
Head-to-head edges and trouble spots
Edmonton boasts positives against top projections. Their 2-0 mark vs. Vegas includes strong showings, with two chances to extend dominance.
Against Anaheim, a 1-1 split leaves room to claim superiority in the finale. Utah’s 1-0 deficit favors Oilers, but wild cards can surge.
Troubles brew elsewhere. Zero wins in three against Dallas (C2, 92 points) and Minnesota (C3, 88 points) spell danger for later rounds.[1]
A 9-1 November blowout by Colorado haunts, but Tuesday’s 4-3 triumph—and April 13 rematch—hints at preview potential. Playoff pedigree from recent deep runs aids McDavid and Draisaitl.
Our preview of a potential Stars-Oilers conference finals clash notes how regular-season losses don’t define postseason, but wins build momentum.
Depth beyond stars remains key. Recent Blues win (3-1 over Carolina) shows grit.
Broader Western Conference odds
Stathletes ranks Oilers second among Western teams for conference finals (37.3%), Cup Final (18.6%), and Cup win (9.2%). Colorado leads across boards.[1]
Current matchups: C1 Colorado vs. WC2 San Jose, C2 Dallas vs. C3 Minnesota, P1 Anaheim vs. WC1 Utah, P2 Vegas vs. P3 Edmonton.
MoneyPuck aligns with high playoff odds around 75-80% for Oilers, emphasizing seeding.[3] Full ESPN playoff watch details here.
Central depth challenges path. Dallas’ seven goals Thursday vs. Edmonton exposed defensive gaps.
Veteran savvy positions them well. Draisaitl’s consistency and McDavid’s speed thrive in playoffs.
Key remaining games and schedule outlook
Friday’s Blues game (8 p.m. ET, ESPN+/Hulu) tests focus against spoilers. Sunday at Nashville follows.
Critical: Remaining vs. Vegas (two), Anaheim (one), Utah (two). April 13 at Colorado looms large.
With 16 games, points pace must hold. Thursday’s Dallas drubbing (7-2) stings, but rebounds like Colorado win inspire.
Non-division foes like St. Louis offer breathing room. Travel and fatigue factor, per past analyses.
Every team under 20 games eyes positioning. Oilers’ 93.6% odds demand execution.
The final stretch decides narrative. Strong finishes echo championship-caliber teams.
Edmonton’s blend of star power, experience, and favorable head-to-heads positions them for a deep run, though Central giants like Colorado (43% conf finals) and Dallas pose hurdles. Securing P3 avoids wild-card chaos, setting up winnable first round. With McDavid and Draisaitl leading, 9.2% Cup odds undervalue their potential—finishing the story remains within reach if they navigate the Pacific gauntlet. Fans eye Friday as momentum builder toward April glory.
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Par Mike Jonderson
Mike Jonderson is a passionate hockey analyst and expert in advanced NHL statistics. A former college player and mathematics graduate, he combines his understanding of the game with technical expertise to develop innovative predictive models and contribute to the evolution of modern hockey analytics.