The NHL season paused on February 6 for the 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy, sending around 143 players to represent their countries in a best-on-best tournament. Gold medalists return triumphant, while others carry the weight of close calls or injuries sustained on the international stage. Non-participants, including Russian stars like Nikita Kucherov and Kirill Kaprizov, enjoyed a much-needed rest.
As action resumes on Wednesday, the focus shifts to the Stanley Cup playoff race. Playoff probabilities from The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn, Stathletes, and Money Puck paint a clear picture of locks, bubble teams, and lottery hopefuls. Health, Olympic fatigue, and key returns will shape the final sprint. Here’s the breakdown by division, including the current playoff bracket.
Current playoff bracket
| Matchup | Details |
|---|---|
| A1 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. WC2 Boston Bruins | - |
| A2 Montreal Canadiens vs. A3 Detroit Red Wings | - |
| M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC1 Buffalo Sabres | - |
| M2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. M3 New York Islanders | - |
| C1 Colorado Avalanche vs. WC2 Anaheim Ducks | - |
| C2 Minnesota Wild vs. C3 Dallas Stars | - |
| P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Utah Mammoth | - |
| P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Seattle Kraken | - |
Atlantic division
The locks
Tampa Bay Lightning sit atop the Atlantic with a 37-14-4 record and 78 points, boasting 99% playoff odds. They’ve won 14 of their last 16 games, powered by Nikita Kucherov (91 points in 51 games) and Andrei Vasilevskiy (.920 save percentage). The Olympic break allowed their Russian stars vital rest amid a IOC ban on their country.
Health concerns loom large, however. Brayden Point and Anthony Cirelli missed the games due to injuries, while Victor Hedman got hurt in warmups for Sweden. Coach Jon Cooper and Brandon Hagel must shake off the sting of a final loss. Jake Guentzel’s gold medal antics drew laughs, but focus returns to the ice.
The Lightning’s separation gives breathing room, but every game counts now. Vasilevskiy’s dominance anchors their push. Expect them to maintain momentum through the trade deadline.
Work to do
Montreal Canadiens (32-17-8, 72 points, 86.5% odds) have surged since 2026 began, with the eighth-best points percentage (.667) and strong offense (3.83 goals per game). Goaltending has stabilized post-January, ranking eighth in 5-on-5 save percentage. Jakub Dobes won six of seven starts recently.
Juraj Slafkovsky shone for Slovakia, scoring 11 Olympic goals lifetime, mirroring his NHL form (14 goals, 32 points in 33 games). His dominance is crucial for a postseason spot. The Habs need consistent netminding to hold position.
Detroit Red Wings match Montreal’s points (33-19-6, 72.7% odds), overcoming secondary scoring woes. Thirteen players scored since January, led by James van Riemsdyk’s 14 points. They’ve posted a .618 points percentage lately.
Dylan Larkin returns as U.S. gold hero, Lucas Raymond led Sweden offensively (nine points in five games), and Moritz Seider logged heavy minutes for Germany. Fatigue could hit, but their depth aids the chase.
Buffalo Sabres (32-19-6, 70 points, 70.1% odds) hated the break after winning 21 of 28 since December, ranking top-three offensively and fourth defensively. Tage Thompson’s semifinal scare resolved positively.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (7-2-1 stretch) returns from injury, alongside Alex Lyon. Goaltending health defines their wild-card bid. Streaks have burned them before, but metrics suggest resilience.
Boston Bruins (32-20-5, 69 points, 52.9% odds) surprise via David Pastrnak (71 points), Morgan Geekie (32 goals), and Charlie McAvoy (39 points). Jeremy Swayman (.903 save, gold medal) rebounds from a center-ice goal.
Ottawa Senators (28-22-7, 63 points, 49.9% odds) eye buys at deadline, hinging on Linus Ullmark’s return. Brady Tkachuk’s U.S. gold and “hatred” comments stir rivalry talk in Canada’s capital.
Long shots
Florida Panthers (29-25-3, 61 points, 18.8% odds), two-time champs, trail by eight. Dmitry Kulikov and Tomas Nosek near returns, but Aleksander Barkov and Seth Jones lag. Ten Olympians, including injured Brad Marchand, face fatigue after heavy recent hockey.
Toronto Maple Leafs (27-21-9, 63 points, 12% odds) struggle defensively since January (.583 points percentage). Joseph Woll’s starts help, Chris Tanev nears return. Auston Matthews drew brotherly defense post-gold: “Auston led us to a championship,” said Quinn Hughes.
Metropolitan division
The locks
Carolina Hurricanes (36-15-6, 78 points, 99.9% odds) boast deep offense (3.39 goals per game), nine double-digit goal scorers led by Seth Jarvis (25). Sebastian Aho (six points, four goals) earned Finland bronze; Jaccob Slavin anchored U.S. gold.
Work to do
Pittsburgh Penguins (29-15-12, 70 points, 81.2% odds) thrive with Evgeni Malkin (1.07 points per game). Sidney Crosby’s Olympic injury scares eased—he was “pretty close” to playing gold medal.
New York Islanders (32-21-5, 69 points, 52.3% odds) ride Ilya Sorokin’s hot streak (.928 save in 18 games). Matthew Schaefer’s absence hurt Canada.
Columbus Blue Jackets (29-20-7, 65 points, 52% odds) won 10 of 11 under Rick Bowness, elite defensively. Zach Werenski’s Olympic heroics (golden goal assist) fuel Norris push.
Washington Capitals (29-23-7, 65 points, 38.5% odds) gain from Pierre-Luc Dubois’ return. Tom Wilson’s big-game prowess shone internationally.
Long shots and lottery
Philadelphia Flyers (25-20-11, 61 points, 10.9% odds) navigate Matvei Michkov coaching drama amid eight-point gap. Dan Vladar proved vital.
New Jersey Devils (28-27-2, 58 points, 3% odds) falter post-streak; Jack Hughes’ golden goal overshadows club woes. Jacob Markstrom excelled for Sweden.
New York Rangers (22-29-6, 50 points, 0% odds) retool via Artemi Panarin trade. Grinders like J.T. Miller validated U.S. selection.
Central division
The locks
Colorado Avalanche (37-9-9, 83 points, 99.9% odds) lead offensively and defensively. Nathan MacKinnon’s Olympic maintenance raises flags—he trails no one in points (93).
Dallas Stars (34-14-9, 77 points, 99.9% odds) dip lately (3.06 goals per game), but elite. Mikko Rantanen’s lower-body injury shelves him initially.
Minnesota Wild (34-14-10, 78 points, 99.9% odds) closed on Colorado post-Quinn Hughes trade. Matt Boldy’s puck-juggling goal highlighted U.S. gold.
Work to do
Utah Mammoth (30-23-4, 64 points, 86% odds) excel since January (2.41 GAA). Logan Cooley nears return; Clayton Keller, JJ Peterka medal.
Nashville Predators (26-24-7, 59 points, 20.3% odds) tease contention. Juuse Saros (.940 Olympic save) could spark.
Long shots and lottery
Winnipeg Jets (22-26-8, 52 points, 8.2% odds) lean on Connor Hellebuyck’s gold heroics despite .900 save. Josh Morrissey’s early injury hurts.
Chicago Blackhawks (22-26-9, 52 points, 0.3% odds) fade; Connor Bedard heats up pre-break.
St. Louis Blues (20-28-9, 49 points, 0.1% odds) lost season prompts trades. Jordan Binnington solidified big-game rep despite club struggles.
Pacific division
The locks
Vegas Golden Knights (27-16-14, 68 points, 97% odds) amp offense via Mark Stone, Jack Eichel. Mitch Marner’s OT winner silences critics. Goaltending mixed.
Work to do
Edmonton Oilers (28-22-8, 64 points, 80.1% odds) confound despite Connor McDavid’s dominance (60 points since December). Media questions his “big wins”; Tristan Jarry resets.
Anaheim Ducks (30-23-3, 63 points, 75.6% odds) rebounded from streak with Beckett Sennecke (44 rookie points). Leo Carlsson’s absence hurt Sweden; Lukas Dostal nearly upset Canada.
Los Angeles Kings (23-19-14, 60 points, 66.2% odds) add Artemi Panarin but lose Kevin Fiala to broken leg—season over, cap relief incoming.
Long shots
Seattle Kraken (27-20-9, 63 points, 41.2% odds) improve goal differential lately. Kaapo Kakko’s Olympic burst (three goals) inspires.
San Jose Sharks (27-24-4, 58 points, 23.4% odds) ride Macklin Celebrini (81 points); his Olympic play with McDavid boosts MVP case.
Lottery-bound
Calgary Flames (23-27-6, 52 points, 1.1% odds) eye trades like Nazem Kadri. Minimal Olympic involvement aids rest.
Vancouver Canucks (18-33-6, 42 points, 0% odds) tank post-Quinn Hughes trade. Elias Pettersson underwhelmed for Sweden.
The post-Olympic stretch intensifies with trade deadline looming and every point pivotal. Injuries like Rantanen’s and Crosby’s test depth, while rested stars like Kucherov push forward. Medal momentum could propel bubble teams, but fatigue risks lurk—watch goaltending and health closely for playoff twists. The sprint to April promises drama across all races.
Frequently Asked Questions
Par Mike Jonderson
Mike Jonderson is a passionate hockey analyst and expert in advanced NHL statistics. A former college player and mathematics graduate, he combines his understanding of the game with technical expertise to develop innovative predictive models and contribute to the evolution of modern hockey analytics.