Which NHL teams are considered locks for the playoffs after the Olympics?

Teams like Tampa Bay Lightning (99% odds), Carolina Hurricanes (99.9%), Colorado Avalanche (99.9%), Dallas Stars (99.9%), Minnesota Wild (99.9%), and Vegas Golden Knights (97%) are locks. These teams lead their divisions with strong records, elite offense, defense, and goaltending. Their depth and momentum position them well for the postseason regardless of Olympic fatigue.

How did the Olympics impact teams like Tampa Bay Lightning?

Tampa benefited from rested Russian stars like Nikita Kucherov and Andrei Vasilevskiy who skipped the Olympics. This rest proved valuable as the team boasts a 37-14-4 record and 14-1-1 in last 16 games. However, injuries to players like Brayden Point, Victor Hedman, and others returning from Olympics add uncertainty.

What are the tightest wild-card races post-Olympics?

Wild-card battles are tight with Buffalo Sabres (70.1% odds), Anaheim Ducks (75.6%), Utah Mammoth (86%), and Boston Bruins (52.9%) in contention. These teams have strong recent form but face challenges from streaks, injuries, and fatigue. The bracket shows WC1 Buffalo vs. Carolina and WC2 Anaheim/Boston vs. top seeds.

Which players shone at the Olympics and return to NHL action?

Stars like Dylan Larkin (U.S. gold), Sebastian Aho (Finland bronze), Jaccob Slavin (U.S. gold), and Jack Hughes (golden goal) performed well. Rested players like Kucherov (91 points) and Malkin give edges. Injuries like Nathan MacKinnon's maintenance and Sidney Crosby's scare loom large for returns.

When does the NHL trade deadline occur and why does it matter?

The trade deadline is March 6, critical for bubble teams like Ottawa, Florida, and Nashville to bolster rosters. Contenders may acquire depth amid injuries from Olympics. It could shake up wild-card races as teams like Toronto and Philadelphia seek boosts.

What sources inform these playoff projections?

Projections draw from Dom Luszczyszyn at The Athletic, Stathletes, Money Puck, NHL stats, Natural Stat Trick, and Evolving Hockey. Standings from NHL.com provide the bracket base. Preseason and quarter-season bubble watches offer deeper context.

Post-Olympics NHL Bubble Watch 2026: Playoff Odds, Standings & Projections After Olympic Break

The NHL season paused on February 6 to let players chase Olympic glory in Italy. Now, with the games wrapped up, teams return to action on Wednesday amid shifting playoff races. Gold medalists, bronze winners, and those who rested during the break face a crucial stretch run, with injuries and fatigue adding intrigue.[1]

Around 143 NHLers suited up for the men’s tournament, but Russian stars like Nikita Kucherov, Kirill Kaprizov, and Artemi Panarin—recently traded to Los Angeles—got valuable rest. Playoff probabilities from Dom Luszczyszyn at The Athletic, Stathletes, and Money Puck guide this bubble watch, alongside stats from NHL, Natural Stat Trick, and Evolving Hockey. For a deeper preseason dive, check our earlier NHL bubble watch playoff projections.

Current playoff bracket

The bracket reflects the latest standings as play resumes:

A1 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. WC2 Boston Bruins
A2 Montreal Canadiens vs. A3 Detroit Red Wings
M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC1 Buffalo Sabres
M2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. M3 New York Islanders
C1 Colorado Avalanche vs. WC2 Anaheim Ducks
C2 Minnesota Wild vs. C3 Dallas Stars
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Utah Mammoth
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Seattle Kraken

This setup highlights tight wild-card battles and division contenders. Full standings are available on NHL.com.[2]

Atlantic division

The lock: Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa enters the break with a 37-14-4 record and 78 points, boasting 99% playoff odds. They’re 14-1-1 in their last 16, powered by rested Russians Kucherov (91 points) and Andrei Vasilevskiy (.920 save percentage).

Health looms large post-Olympics. Brayden Point and Anthony Cirelli skipped Canada due to injuries, Victor Hedman got hurt in warmups, and coach Jon Cooper plus Brandon Hagel deal with a final loss. Jake Guentzel’s gold medal antics aside, Tampa’s surge positions them well.

Their separation in the division gives breathing room. Kucher’s 31-point lead over Guentzel underscores the offensive edge. Vasilevskiy’s 27 wins anchor the net.

Russian rest proved golden—no Olympic wear for key pieces. Expect Tampa to maintain momentum if injuries heal fast.

Work to do

Montreal Canadiens (32-17-8, 72 points, 86.5% odds) own the eighth-best points pace since 2026 at .667, with strong offense (3.83 goals/game). Goaltending has improved eighth in 5-on-5 saves lately, though Jakub Dobes sits at .886 recently.

Juraj Slafkovsky dazzled for Slovakia again, mirroring his 32 points in 33 Canadiens games. Continued dominance from him could secure a spot. For prior insights, see our quarter-season bubble watch.

Detroit Red Wings (33-19-6, 72 points, 72.7%) fixed secondary scoring woes, with 13 goal-scorers since January and James van Riemsdyk’s 14 points. .618 points percentage nears top-10.

Dylan Larkin returns golden from U.S. triumph, Lucas Raymond led Sweden offensively, Moritz Seider logged heavy minutes for Germany. Fatigue might hit, but momentum builds.

Buffalo Sabres (32-19-6, 70 points, 70.1%) won 21 of 28 pre-break, third-best offense, fourth-best defense. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (7-2-1 stretch) returns from injury.

Tage Thompson’s semifinal scare passed; Alex Lyon matters too. Streaks worry, but this feels sustainable.

Boston Bruins and beyond

Boston (32-20-5, 69 points, 52.9%) relies on David Pastrnak (71 points), Morgan Geekie (32 goals), Pavel Zacha, Elias Lindholm, and Charlie McAvoy (39 points, 24:10/game). Jeremy Swayman’s Olympic center-ice goal stings, but gold helps.

Ottawa Senators (28-22-7, 63 points, 49.9%) eye trades; Linus Ullmark’s return stabilizes middling goaltending. Brady Tkachuk’s U.S. gold talk of Canada “hatred” irks in Ottawa.

Florida Panthers (29-25-3, 61 points, 18.8%), champs falter eight out. Aleksander Barkov, Seth Jones near return; 10 Olympians, six medalists like injured Brad Marchand return weary.

Toronto Maple Leafs (27-21-9, 63 points, 12%) struggle post-January; Chris Tanev could aid. Auston Matthews defended by Hughes brothers post-gold: “Auston led us to a championship.”

Metropolitan division

The lock: Carolina Hurricanes

Carolina (36-15-6, 78 points, 99.9%) boasts deep offense (3.39 goals/game), nine double-digit goal-scorers led by Seth Jarvis (25). Sebastian Aho’s four Olympic goals earned Finland bronze.

Jaccob Slavin rocked for U.S. gold. No superstars traded away, depth shines under Rod Brind’Amour.

Pittsburgh Penguins and contenders

Pittsburgh (29-15-12, 70 points, 81.2%) thrives with Evgeni Malkin (1.07 points/game). Sidney Crosby’s semifinal injury scares, but he’s “pretty close.”

New York Islanders (32-21-5, 69 points, 52.3%) ride Ilya Sorokin’s .928 save stretch. Matthew Schaefer’s absence hurt Canada.

Columbus Blue Jackets (29-20-7, 65 points, 52%) surged 10-1-0 under Rick Bowness. Zach Werenski eyes Norris after Olympic assist on golden goal.

Washington Capitals (29-23-7, 65 points, 38.5%) boost from Pierre-Luc Dubois. Tom Wilson impressed defensively for Canada.

Long shots and lottery

Philadelphia Flyers (25-20-11, 61 points, 10.9%) navigate Matvei Michkov drama. Dan Vladar shone more than Olympics.

New Jersey Devils (28-27-2, 58 points, 3%) stumbled despite Jack Hughes’ golden goal heroics. Jacob Markstrom solid for Sweden.

New York Rangers (22-29-6, 50 points, 0%) retool post-Panarin trade. Vincent Trocheck, J.T. Miller proved grinders for U.S. gold.

Central division

The locks: Colorado, Dallas, Minnesota

Colorado Avalanche (37-9-9, 83 points, 99.9%) leads offense/defense. Nathan MacKinnon’s Olympic maintenance over?

Dallas Stars (34-14-9, 77 points, 99.9%) scoring dipped lately; Mikko Rantanen out first two games post-injury.

Minnesota Wild (34-14-10, 78 points, 99.9%) closed on Avs post-Quinn Hughes trade. Matt Boldy’s puck-juggling goal iconic.

Utah Mammoth and Nashville

Utah (30-23-4, 64 points, 86%) elite since January (2.41 GAA). Logan Cooley nears return; Clayton Keller, JJ Peterka medal.

Nashville Predators (26-24-7, 59 points, 20.3%) teeter; Juuse Saros’ Olympic .940 boosts confidence.

Others

Winnipeg Jets (22-26-8, 52 points, 8.2%) needs Connor Hellebuyck magic. Josh Morrissey injured early for Canada.

Chicago Blackhawks (22-26-9, 52 points, 0.3%) fade; Connor Bedard heats up.

St. Louis Blues (20-28-9, 49 points, 0.1%) lost; Jordan Binnington big-game proven despite season.

Pacific division

The lock: Vegas Golden Knights

Vegas (27-16-14, 68 points, 97%) offense surges via Mark Stone, Jack Eichel. Goaltending shaky sans Carter Hart.

Mitch Marner’s OT winner silences critics; Eichel, Noah Hanifin golden.

Edmonton Oilers and fighters

Edmonton (28-22-8, 64 points, 80.1%) baffles despite Connor McDavid’s dominance. Tristan Jarry needs reset.

Anaheim Ducks (30-23-3, 63 points, 75.6%) rebounded from skid; Beckett Sennecke rookie star. Leo Carlsson missed Sweden.

Los Angeles Kings (23-19-14, 60 points, 66.2%) add Panarin, lose Kevin Fiala to broken leg.

Seattle, San Jose, bottom

Seattle Kraken (27-20-9, 63 points, 41.2%) plus-12 goal diff post-January. Kaapo Kakko Olympic hot.

San Jose Sharks (27-24-4, 58 points, 23.4%) Macklin Celebrini MVP case (81 points).

Calgary Flames (23-27-6, 52 points, 1.1%) trade bait like Nazem Kadri.

Vancouver Canucks (18-33-6, 42 points, 0%) tank post-Hughes trade; Elias Pettersson quiet.

The Olympic break shakes up races—rested teams like Tampa push ahead, injured stars test depth. Wild cards in Buffalo, Anaheim, Utah hang tight, while trade deadline looms March 6. Locks like Colorado eye Cups; bubble teams must seize every point for postseason drama. For ongoing projections, stay tuned to ESPN’s full breakdown.[1]

Post-Olympics NHL bubble watch