Who tops the rankings at No. 1?

Nathan MacKinnon of Canada tops the list with a three-year GAR average of 32.7 (O:26.1, D:6.7). His current season GAR of 39.0 leads the NHL, building on his 2023-24 MVP form. He showcased his skill with four goals in four games at the 4 Nations Face-Off alongside Sidney Crosby and Sam Reinhart.

Why does Canada dominate the top of the list?

Canada claims three of the top four spots and has exceptional depth throughout the top 50. Players like Nathan MacKinnon (No. 1), Cale Makar (No. 2), and Connor McDavid (No. 3) highlight their offensive and defensive prowess. Additional stars like Josh Morrissey, Logan Thompson, and Sidney Crosby further solidify their position as gold medal favorites.

Who are the top U.S. players in the rankings?

Connor Hellebuyck ranks No. 6 with 20.5 GAR, leading U.S. goalies despite a challenging season, bolstered by prior Vezina wins. Zach Werenski (No. 7, 20.2 GAR) and Jack Eichel (No. 11, 19.8 GAR) provide offensive firepower from defense and forward positions. The U.S. boasts balanced depth with players like Kyle Connor, Jake Guentzel, and Quinn Hughes.

What role do goalies play in these rankings?

Goalies comprise 10% of the GAR value weighting but can be great equalizers in tournaments. Connor Hellebuyck leads at No. 6, followed by Logan Thompson (No. 14) and Filip Gustavsson (No. 22). The metric properly credits goaltending, as seen in past Olympics where elite netminders swung outcomes.

Who are some notable snubs or bounce-back candidates?

Injury-impacted stars like Jack Hughes (No. 54), Victor Hedman (No. 60), and Matthew Tkachuk (No. 80) rank lower despite their talent. Rising prospects such as Macklin Celebrini (No. 10) and breakouts like Martin Necas highlight potential surprises. These rankings favor sustained excellence, but Olympic chemistry could elevate others.

2026 Olympics Hockey Rankings: Top 50 NHL Players by GAR Metric

Q: What is the GAR metric used in these rankings?

GAR, or Goals Above Replacement, measures a player's total impact above a replacement-level benchmark, prorated to an 82-game schedule and balanced by position (60% forwards, 30% defensemen, 10% goalies). It blends offense, defense, and goaltending value over the past three seasons, with recency weighting: 3x for 2025-26, 2x for 2024-25, and 1x for 2023-24. A 75% floor on the latest season protects against injuries or slumps, making it ideal for predicting Olympic performance.

The 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan and Cortina d’Ampezzo mark the return of NHL players to the Olympic stage for the first time since 2014. With 12 teams competing, the tournament promises elite international hockey fueled by the league’s biggest stars. To predict who might shine brightest, ESPN’s Neil Paine ranked the top 50 NHL participants using adjusted Goals Above Replacement (GAR), a metric blending offense, defense, and goaltending value over the past three seasons.[1][2]

GAR measures a player’s impact above a replacement-level benchmark, prorated to an 82-game schedule and balanced by position: 60% forwards, 30% defensemen, 10% goalies. Paine’s “established level” weights recent performance—3x for 2025-26, 2x for 2024-25, 1x for 2023-24—while safeguarding against slumps or injuries. Stats are current as of January 17, 2026. This approach highlights sustained excellence heading into the Games.

Canada dominates the list, claiming three of the top four spots and depth throughout. The U.S. counters with strong goaltending and blue-line talent. Other nations like Czechia, Finland, Sweden, and Germany boast key contributors. As rosters solidify,[3] these rankings offer a data-driven preview of potential medal contenders.

How the GAR metric powers these rankings

GAR evolves from stats like Goals Versus Threshold and Point Shares, capturing total value across zones. It adjusts for position scarcity, mirroring NHL salaries. Forwards drive most value, but elite defensemen like Cale Makar thrive here.

The three-year established level favors peaks with recency bias. Weights ensure 2025-26 dominates, but prior seasons prevent overpenalizing injuries. A 75% floor on the latest season protects risers or sidelined stars, like Matthew Tkachuk.

This method blends peak form, consistency, and durability—ideal for Olympics’ short, intense format. Unlike raw points, GAR credits defensive play and goaltending properly.

Paine tested it against NHL salaries and Elo ratings for validation. It spotlights players like Nathan MacKinnon, whose tear post-holiday break (2.1 points per game) cements his lead.

For full rosters, check the NHL’s complete men’s hockey lists for Milano Cortina 2026.[3]

Canada’s stranglehold on the top spots

Nathan MacKinnon tops the list at No. 1 for Canada (Colorado), with a three-year GAR average of 32.7 (O:26.1, D:6.7). His 39.0 GAR this season leads the NHL, echoing his 2023-24 MVP form. Paired with Sidney Crosby and Sam Reinhart at the 4 Nations Face-Off, he scored four goals in four games.

Cale Makar ranks second (27.7 GAR), projecting career-high adjusted points for the third straight year. He logs 25 minutes nightly for a stingy Avalanche defense. No defenseman matches his consistency.

Connor McDavid sits third (26.9 GAR), rebounding from a “down” 2024-25 with injury absences. Still, he hit 100 adjusted points for the ninth season running. Canada holds the top three, signaling unmatched depth.

Josh Morrissey (No. 13, 19.1 GAR) anchors the blue line with elite two-way play, blocking shots and killing penalties. Logan Thompson (No. 14, 19.0 GAR) leads NHL goalies in Goals Saved Above Average (+16.6). Sidney Crosby (No. 16, 18.5 GAR) adds veteran savvy.

This talent pool positions Canada as gold favorites. As explored in our X factors analysis for Milan Cortina teams, their chemistry from recent tournaments could prove decisive.[4]

USA’s balanced attack and defensive edge

Connor Hellebuyck (No. 6, 20.5 GAR) headlines U.S. goalies despite a tough 2025-26 (.887 SV%). His Vezina-winning prior seasons elevate him. Jets’ struggles aside, his résumé shines.

Zach Werenski (No. 7, 20.2 GAR) exploded last year, leading 4 Nations points from defense. He’s nearing Makar-level offense. Jack Eichel (No. 11, 19.8 GAR) paces for career highs despite injury time.

Kyle Connor (No. 12, 19.3 GAR) sustains elite scoring amid Winnipeg’s drop-off. Matt Boldy (No. 26, 16.2 GAR) surges this year. Jake Guentzel (No. 19, 17.7 GAR) brings playoff pedigree.

Quinn Hughes (No. 23, 17.1 GAR) and Jake Sanderson (No. 32, 14.5 GAR) bolster the blue line. Goalies like Jake Oettinger (No. 43, 13.4 GAR) add depth. Injuries ding stars like Jack Hughes (No. 54) and Brady Tkachuk (No. 69).

The U.S. eyes gold, per our coverage of their NHL stars’ ambitions.[5]

International standouts beyond North America

Leon Draisaitl (No. 4, Germany, 25.5 GAR) delivers metronomic output: 41-53 adjusted goals yearly since 2018-19. He’ll lead Germany’s attack post-2018 silver.

David Pastrnak (No. 5, Czechia, 20.7 GAR) is the top non-banned winger (Russia excluded). Three-year elite points pace him ahead. Martin Necas (No. 8, 20.1 GAR) breaks out with Colorado’s big three.

Mikko Rantanen (No. 9, Finland, 19.9 GAR) adapts post-trade, linking with Granlund and Hintz. William Nylander (No. 17, Sweden, 18.2 GAR) sustains high production.

Sebastian Aho (No. 24, Finland, 17.1 GAR) and Tomas Hertl (No. 48, Czechia, 12.8 GAR) add scoring punch. Germany’s Tim Stutzle (No. 35, 14.3 GAR) and Moritz Seider (No. 50, 12.5 GAR) provide balance.

These players elevate underdogs. Sweden’s Filip Gustavsson (No. 22, 17.6 GAR) headlines netminders internationally.

Goalies: The great equalizers

Hellebuyck leads at No. 6, buoyed by prior dominance. Logan Thompson (No. 14) tops 2025-26 with elite save rates. Filip Gustavsson (No. 22) surges for Sweden.

Logan Thompson edges Jordan Binnington, whose poor season drops him to No. 145 (-0.3 GAR). Jeremy Swayman (No. 45, 13.1 GAR) and Jake Oettinger rebound.

Jesper Wallstedt (No. 40, 13.6 GAR) benefits from the safeguard despite limited prior play. Philipp Grubauer (No. 44, 13.2 GAR) anchors Germany.

Darcy Kuemper (No. 47, 12.8 GAR) rounds out Canada’s trio. Goalies comprise 10% of value but can swing tournaments, as in past Olympics.

Notable snubs and bounce-back candidates

Established stars lag due to injuries: Jack Hughes (No. 54, 12.1 GAR), Victor Hedman (No. 60, 11.4 GAR), Matthew Tkachuk (No. 80, 8.9 GAR). Gabriel Landeskog (No. 103, 5.6 GAR) returns post-hiatus.

Our top 50 NHL players ranking dives deeper into these metrics.[2]

Rising talents like Macklin Celebrini (No. 10, 19.8 GAR) electrify Canada at 19. Necas and Boldy represent breakouts.

These rankings predict impact, but Olympics reward chemistry and momentum. Canada and USA lead, but upsets loom.

As Milan Cortina approaches, expect MacKinnon, Makar, and McDavid to dazzle. GAR favors proven producers, but heart defines Olympic glory. Watch how these rankings hold up when pucks drop in February.[1]

Ranking the top 50 players in the Olympic hockey tournament