Tampa Bay Lightning early-season struggles 2025 5-on-5 play

The Tampa Bay Lightning entered the 2025-26 season with legitimate expectations of another deep playoff run. Instead, they’ve stumbled out of the gates with a 1-3-2 record through their first six games, finding themselves at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. While slow starts can happen to any team, what’s particularly concerning for Tampa Bay is the nature of their struggles—specifically their inability to generate consistent offense and maintain defensive structure during 5-on-5 play.

This isn’t a team that’s just experiencing bad luck or a few bounces going the wrong way. The Lightning’s issues run deeper, exposing vulnerabilities in even-strength situations that contrast sharply with their special teams performance. While their power play remains respectable at 25% and their penalty kill sits at an impressive 90.48%, the foundation of their game—the bread-and-butter 5-on-5 hockey—has crumbled in ways that should alarm management and fans alike.

How Tampa Bay Lightning early season struggles 2025 5-on-5 play became the team’s Achilles heel

The contrast between last season and this year couldn’t be starker. During the 2024-25 campaign, the Lightning led the NHL in goals per game at 3.56, powered by an offensive machine that could punish opponents at even strength and on the power play. Fast forward to October 2025, and Tampa Bay ranks 27th out of 32 teams in goals scored per game. The power play hasn’t fallen off a cliff—it’s still tied for 10th in the league—which means the scoring drought is directly tied to their even-strength play.

The numbers paint a grim picture of a team that’s been thoroughly outplayed when both teams have five skaters on the ice. According to advanced metrics, the Lightning have allowed 188 unblocked shots on goal through six games, the third-highest total in the NHL. This means they’re not just struggling to score; they’re getting peppered in their own zone, unable to establish puck possession or create sustained offensive zone time.

The expected goals metrics tell a similar story. When examining 5-on-5 situations specifically, Tampa Bay is losing the territorial battle night after night. They’re getting outchanced, outshot, and outplayed in the most common game state. This represents a significant regression from last season when the team showed marked improvement in even-strength play.

What makes this particularly frustrating is that the pieces should be there. The Lightning added Jake Guentzel in the offseason, a proven scorer who was brought in specifically to bolster the 5-on-5 attack. Through four games, Guentzel has five points, but he hasn’t been able to single-handedly reverse the tide. The system-wide issues are too pervasive for any one player to overcome.

Defensive breakdowns expose Tampa Bay Lightning early season struggles 2025 5-on-5 play

Defense has become an unexpected liability for a team that prided itself on being difficult to play against. The Lightning have surrendered 21 goals through six games, giving them a goal differential of -5. Only the Columbus Blue Jackets and Ottawa Senators have allowed more goals in the Eastern Conference. For a team that allowed just 216 goals over 82 games last season (fourth-best in the NHL), this defensive collapse has been shocking.

The issue isn’t just the quantity of goals allowed—it’s the quality of chances being generated against them. Tampa Bay’s defensive structure appears disjointed during 5-on-5 play, with forwards and defensemen frequently out of position. This has led to odd-man rushes, dangerous looks from the slot, and far too many high-danger scoring chances against.

Perhaps most telling is how the team has squandered leads. Last season, the Lightning lost only eight games when leading after the first period. Six games into this season, they’ve already blown three such leads. Their most recent win against Boston on October 13 saw them take a 3-0 advantage only to barely hang on for a 4-3 victory. When your best isn’t good enough to put away an opponent, you know something is fundamentally broken.

The defensive issues extend beyond the structure. Turnovers in the neutral zone have been frequent, often leading directly to odd-man rushes going the other way. The breakouts from the defensive zone lack crispness, and opposing teams have figured out how to pressure Tampa Bay’s defensemen into making mistakes. These are coachable issues, but they require buy-in from every player—and right now, that doesn’t seem to be happening consistently.

Veteran defenseman Victor Hedman, who typically controls the pace of play with his elite skating and positioning, has looked a step slow at times. While he’s not alone in struggling, his performance often sets the tone for the entire defensive corps. When Hedman isn’t dominating at both ends of the ice, the Lightning become a much more vulnerable team.

Goaltending concerns compound Tampa Bay Lightning early season struggles 2025 5-on-5 play issues

Andrei Vasilevskiy has been the Lightning’s backbone for years, a former Vezina Trophy winner and two-time Stanley Cup champion who can steal games when necessary. But through the first six games of 2025-26, he’s been merely average—and for a team struggling this badly at 5-on-5, average goaltending isn’t enough.

Vasilevskiy’s numbers are concerning: an .886 save percentage and a 3.50 goals-against average. While raw statistics don’t tell the complete story, his goals saved above expected sits at -0.6, ranking 25th among NHL goalies who have played at least four games. This suggests he’s not bailing out his team when they break down defensively—something he’s made a career of doing.

There’s context that matters here. Vasilevskiy missed time during training camp as a precautionary measure, and any goalie who misses that crucial preparation time will feel it early in the season. The preseason is when netminders sharpen their tracking, work on their positioning, and get their timing down. Without that runway, even elite goalies can struggle out of the gate.

The advanced metrics show Vasilevskiy has actually been slightly better during 5-on-5 play (0.7 goals saved above expected) compared to special teams situations, where he’s been below average on both the power play (-0.3) and penalty kill (-0.2). This is counterintuitive given how Tampa Bay’s special teams are performing well while their even-strength play struggles. It suggests that when the team is playing structured hockey with clear assignments, Vasilevskiy can still be effective. But during the chaos of 5-on-5 play, where defensive breakdowns are frequent, even he can’t keep the puck out consistently.

Backup Jonas Johansson, who went through a normal training camp and preseason, sports a .906 save percentage and 3.06 GAA in two games—numbers that look stellar by comparison. This reinforces the theory that Vasilevskiy simply needs more time to find his rhythm. The Lightning are betting that patience will pay off, but with each loss, that patience wears thinner.

Star players disappearing during Tampa Bay Lightning early season struggles 2025 5-on-5 play situations

Beyond the systemic issues, individual underperformance from key players has exacerbated the Lightning’s even-strength woes. Nikita Kucherov, one of the league’s premier playmakers and a perennial Art Ross Trophy contender, has been nearly invisible. Through four games (he’s missed two due to illness), Kucherov has just three points—two goals and one assist. Compare that to last season’s start when he had nine points through four games, including seven goals, and the drop-off is staggering.

Kucherov’s absence from the lineup due to illness certainly hasn’t helped, but when he has played, he hasn’t been the dynamic force that Tampa Bay needs. His ability to create offense from nothing, to see plays develop before anyone else, and to quarterback the attack has been noticeably absent. During 5-on-5 play especially, where creativity and individual skill matter most, Kucherov hasn’t been able to take over games the way he has in the past.

Brandon Hagel’s struggles are even more alarming. The energetic winger who brought speed and finishing ability to the Lightning has been completely shut down, managing just one point in six games with zero goals. Last season through the same span, Hagel had five goals and eight total points. He’s a player who thrives on creating havoc during even-strength play, using his speed to generate odd-man rushes and his tenacity to win puck battles. None of that has materialized so far.

The timing of these slumps couldn’t be worse. When two of your top offensive weapons go cold simultaneously, the entire offensive ecosystem collapses. Role players can step up for a game or two, but they can’t sustain production over a long stretch. The Lightning need Kucherov and Hagel to rediscover their games, particularly during 5-on-5 situations where special teams can’t bail them out.

Brayden Point, another critical piece of Tampa Bay’s offensive puzzle, has struggled with consistency as well. While he’s managed five points through six games, his minus-8 rating tells the story of a player who’s been on the ice for far too many goals against. Point is typically reliable in all three zones, but this season he’s been caught out of position defensively more than usual, contributing to the team’s 5-on-5 struggles.

The path forward for addressing Tampa Bay Lightning early season struggles 2025 5-on-5 play problems

The good news for Tampa Bay is that these problems are fixable. Unlike teams facing roster deficiencies or systemic organizational issues, the Lightning have talent—they’re just not executing. Head coach Jon Cooper, who recently signed an extension, has proven over his tenure that he can make adjustments and get the most out of his players. The question is whether those adjustments can happen quickly enough to prevent the season from spiraling out of control.

First and foremost, the Lightning need to simplify their 5-on-5 game. Right now, they’re trying to make one too many passes, looking for the perfect play instead of getting pucks to the net and creating chaos. A return to a more direct north-south game—chip and chase, win battles along the boards, get bodies to the net—could help them regain their offensive identity during even-strength situations.

Defensively, communication needs to improve dramatically. Too many goals against have come from players not talking to each other, leaving men open in dangerous areas, or failing to cover for a teammate who’s pinching or forechecking aggressively. Cooper may need to implement more conservative defensive systems temporarily, even if it sacrifices some offensive zone time, just to stem the bleeding and rebuild confidence.

The coaching staff should also consider line adjustments. Sometimes a fresh combination can spark chemistry that wasn’t there before. Moving players around, giving different forwards time together during 5-on-5 shifts, and experimenting with defensive pairings could unearth a combination that clicks. The current setup clearly isn’t working, so there’s little risk in shaking things up.

Special attention needs to be paid to faceoffs. Winning draws, especially in the defensive zone, is crucial to controlling 5-on-5 play. If Tampa Bay can win more faceoffs cleanly and execute their breakouts properly, they’ll spend less time defending and more time attacking. Point and others need to focus on this often-overlooked but critical aspect of the game.

Perhaps most importantly, the team needs to be patient with Vasilevskiy while also holding him accountable. Give him the games he needs to find his form, but also recognize when it might be time to give Johansson more starts if the struggles continue. A hot backup goalie can sometimes provide the spark a team needs, and if Vasilevskiy is still shaking off rust, riding Johansson for a few games might not be the worst idea.

The reality is that Tampa Bay’s season isn’t over—it’s barely begun. Playoff teams go through rough stretches, and sometimes those stretches happen early. The danger is in letting early losses metastasize into a larger crisis of confidence. If Kucherov returns to form, if Vasilevskiy rounds into shape, and if the defensive structure tightens up, the Lightning could quickly reverse course and reclaim their position among the Eastern Conference elite.

But for now, the Lightning must confront an uncomfortable truth: their identity as an offensive juggernaut capable of rolling over opponents through skill and speed has been shattered. Until they can rediscover their ability to control play during 5-on-5 situations—generating chances, preventing chances against, and playing with the structure and discipline that defined their championship years—they’ll continue to flounder. October losses may not feel critical, but they count just as much as March victories. The clock is ticking, and the Lightning need answers fast before their defensive struggles become too deep to overcome.