Toronto Maple Leafs vs St. Louis Blues game day preview: line-up notes, special-teams battle and what to expect on Monday night

The Maple Leafs finish a three-game homestand on Monday when the St. Louis Blues visit Scotiabank Arena for the only time this season. Toronto is 4-1-1 in its last six and coming off a 4-2 win over New Jersey on Saturday, while the Blues arrive 3-2-0 on the road trip and still searching for the defensive identity that carried them to 92 points a year ago. With both clubs hovering around the playoff cut-line in their respective conferences, the 7 p.m. ET face-off carries early-season stakes that usually don’t appear until March.

Below is everything you need to know—projected lines, goalie matchup, special-teams trends, a key stat and one big question that will decide the outcome.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs St. Louis Blues game day preview: projected line-ups and injury report

Maple Leafs expected lines (based on Saturday’s practice)

Forwards

• Bertuzzi – Matthews – Marner
• Domi – Tavares – Nylander
• Knies – Kampf – Järnkrok
• Gregor – Holmberg – Reaves

Defence pairs

• Rielly – Brodie
• McCabe – Liljegren
• Giordano – Timmins

Starting goalie

• Ilya Samsonov (confirmed by head coach Craig Berube after morning skate)

Toronto is as healthy as it has been all year. The only roster question was the back-up; Martin Jones was recalled Sunday after Joseph Woll was placed on injured reserve with a high-ankle sprain. That leaves Dennis Hildeby as the emergency third, but Samsonov will get a third straight start after stopping 57 of 61 shots in wins over the Islanders and Devils.

Blues expected lines (based on Sunday’s skate in Toronto)

Forwards

• Buchnevich – Thomas – Kyrou
• Saad – Schenn – Toropchenko
• Neighbours – Hayes – Kapanen
• Walker – Acciari – Pitlick

Defence pairs

• Krug – Parayko
• Faulk – Hofer
• Tucker – Bortuzzo

Starting goalie

• Jordan Binnington (4-3-0, 2.85 GAA, .908 Sv%)

St. Louis is without sniper Vladimir Tarasenko (hand) and veteran centre Robert Thomas missed the last two periods in Ottawa with a lower-body issue, but he took rushes Monday morning and is expected to play. Rookie defenceman Scott Perunovich was placed on IR retroactive to Nov 10, so the third pair is a revolving door for now.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs St. Louis Blues game day preview: special-teams clash could swing momentum

The Leafs enter ranked 2nd in the NHL on the power play (32.4%) and 7th on the penalty kill (84.2%). The Blues are 19th with the man advantage (19.0%) and 25th shorthanded (75.0%). Those splits showed up Saturday in Ottawa: St. Louis gave up two power-play goals on three chances and never recovered in a 6-2 loss.

Key numbers to track

• Toronto has scored at least one PPG in eight of its last nine games.
• The Blues have allowed a PP goal in five straight.
• Mitch Marner leads the league in primary assists on the power play (9).
• Toronto’s top unit has clicked at 41% since Nov 1.

If the Blues take penalties the way they did in Ottawa—four stick infractions in the first 27 minutes—Marner and Auston Matthews will feast. On the flip side, Toronto’s discipline has been excellent: only one minor in each of the last two games, a trend that denies St. Louis its best path to offence.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs St. Louis Blues game day preview: three things to watch

1. Samsonov’s rebound control
   The Leafs’ starter has looked calmer since a reset week in early November, but St. Louis throws more pucks at the net than any team Toronto has faced lately (34.8 shots per game). Watch how often the Blues crash the blue paint for second chances.

2. Toropchenko vs Toronto’s third pair
   At 6-foot-4, 222 lb, Alexey Toropchenko has been St. Louis’ most effective forechecker. He draws the matchup against Giordano-Timmins, the one pair Berube does not shelter. Winning those wall battles early could sap Toronto’s transition game.

3. The 5-on-5 goal deficit
   St. Louis owns a minus-7 goal differential at even strength; Toronto is plus-12. If the game stays at 5-on-5, the Leafs’ depth should wear the Blues down. That means Brayden Schenn’s line must at least break even against Tavares and Nylander, or the visitors are in trouble.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs St. Louis Blues game day preview: what the coaches said

Craig Berube on keeping the foot on the gas after two straight wins:
“We talked about not being satisfied. We’re still below .500 at home (5-6-0). If we want to be a top team we have to win here, and that means starting on time.”

Drew Bannister, Blues interim coach, on the penalty-kill slump:
“It’s not one thing, it’s layers. Sometimes we’re too aggressive, sometimes we’re too passive. Against this power play you have to be perfect because they read off each other so well.”

Toronto Maple Leafs vs St. Louis Blues game day preview: betting trend and one big prediction

The Leafs are -190 on the moneyline with the total set at 6.5. Toronto has gone OVER in six of its last eight, but St. Louis has stayed UNDER in four straight when Binnington starts the second half of a back-to-back. Expect a fast first period—four of the Blues’ last five road games have featured a goal inside the opening 6:10—but if Toronto survives the early push, its special-teams edge should decide a 5-3 final.

What it means for the standings

A regulation win vaults the Leafs past Boston for second in the Atlantic and continues the best stretch of Berube’s short tenure. For St. Louis, salvaging a single point keeps them within striking distance of the final wild-card spot, but a third straight loss would drop them six points back of Vegas with three teams to jump. Monday night is only November, yet both dressing rooms know the calendar flips fast; banking points now beats scrambling in April.

Stay tuned to NHL Insight’s Leafs coverage for post-game reaction and video highlights, and revisit our Atlantic Division power rankings later this week to see where Toronto lands if the streak reaches four.