Which NHL Goalie Has the Best Chance of Winning the Conn Smythe?

The NHL playoffs have showcased exceptional goaltending from the start, raising speculation about a netminder claiming the Conn Smythe trophy for the first time since Andrei Vasilevskiy did so with the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2021. None of the remaining starters have hoisted the Stanley Cup, let alone earned playoff MVP honors. Yet, only three—Frederik Andersen, Carter Hart, and Alex Lyon—entered the postseason with prior playoff starts. Their early dominance underscores the potential for a goalie-led run to glory.

Inexperience defines this group, amplifying their achievements. Andersen leads as the betting favorite at +600 odds, topping every key statistical category. With the playoffs unfolding intensely, as detailed in the 2026 Stanley cup playoffs first round schedule, results and key matchups, eyes turn to who can carry their team deepest.

Frederik Andersen emerges as clear frontrunner

Frederik Andersen sits atop the Conn Smythe odds at +600, the shortest among goalies and trailing only Nathan MacKinnon overall. The Carolina Hurricanes netminder boasts a perfect 6-0 record through the early rounds, underpinned by a staggering .958 save percentage. He has saved 10.3 goals above expected while posting a 1.02 goals-against average. Two shutouts highlight his consistency, never allowing more than two goals in any start.

His prowess shines brightest on high-danger chances, where he maintains a .917 save percentage. At 36, Andersen echoes his hot start in last season’s playoffs before fading. This time, momentum suggests sustained excellence. “He’s been lights out,” noted analysts amid Carolina’s strong push.

Advanced metrics from Moneypuck reinforce his lead. Andersen tops goals saved above expected among remaining starters. Facing pressure from teams like the Flyers, his veteran poise—91 playoff starts—sets him apart.

Should the Hurricanes advance deep, Andersen’s case strengthens. Historical precedents like Vasilevskiy in 2021 show goalies thriving in Cup runs. His unblemished record positions him perfectly.

Scott Wedgewood defies the odds at +2200

Scott Wedgewood enters at longer +2200 odds but packs punch with the Avalanche. His five playoff starts mark his career total, yet he ranks fifth in goals saved above expected at 2.9 overall. A rough Game 1 versus Minnesota (-3.1) was an outlier, but he still won.

Wedgewood concedes rarely, allowing over two goals only once. The Avalanche hold three of four overall favorites per recent odds boards. His resilience echoes rookie phenoms past.

• .928 save percentage (third-best)
• 1.89 GAA (third-best)
• Fifth in goals saved above expected

Bouncing back proves key. As playoffs progress, Wedgewood’s poise could elevate him.

Jakub Dobes channels Canadiens legends

Jakub Dobes, at +3000, dreams of joining Ken Dryden and Patrick Roy as rookie Conn Smythe winners for Montreal. His Game 7 heroics against Tampa Bay—60 saves on 62 shots, 4.11 goals saved above expected—stole the series. First playoffs ever, yet he mirrors Cam Ward’s 2006 feat.

Dobes turned the tide in clutch moments. Continuation could etch history.

The Buffalo Sabres-Montreal Canadiens goalie matchup analysis highlights such battles. Dobes faces steep competition but thrives under lights.

Alex Lyon surges with Sabres at +5000

Alex Lyon (+5000) has sparked Buffalo since taking over. 3-1 record, .955 save percentage, 1.14 GAA, and 4.6 goals saved above expected rank third. Sabres outscored Bruins 16-5 with him in net.

Only two goals in his loss. Lyon’s takeover mirrors underdog stories.

Carter Hart’s longshot bid (+5500)

Carter Hart (+5500) improves lately, two goals allowed in recent starts. Third-best high-danger save percentage at .824. Vegas Golden Knights’ path favors him, though Eichel or Marner loom larger if they win.

Hart’s odds reflect Cup likelihood.

Jesper Wallstedt faces uphill climb (+8000)

Jesper Wallstedt’s Game 1 disaster (eight goals, -4.02) hurts at +8000. Rookie with Wild, but bounce-back potential exists. Boldy, Hughes, Kaprizov ahead even in Cup win.

Dan Vladar shines for Flyers (+10000)

Dan Vladar rivals Andersen, second in goals saved (8.2), .928 save percentage, 1.89 GAA. Flyers trail Hurricanes 2-0, but his brilliance fuels comeback hopes.

Lukas Dostal rounds out field (+15000)

Lukas Dostal (+15000) impressed in Game 1 loss but struggles overall: 3.59 GAA, -.878 save percentage. Rookie inexperience shows.

As playoffs intensify, Andersen leads, but surprises loom—like Vasilevskiy’s 2021 dominance. Goalies’ fates hinge on team success, yet standouts like Wedgewood or Dobes could steal it. Watch Conn Smythe odds at Covers for shifts. The postseason’s magic often crowns the unexpected hero, promising drama ahead.