Analyzing the Buffalo Sabres-Montreal Canadiens goalie matchup

The Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens are set to clash in the Eastern Conference second round of the 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs, with the Sabres holding home-ice advantage as the Atlantic Division’s top seed. After the Sabres dispatched the Boston Bruins in five games and the Canadiens outlasted the Tampa Bay Lightning in seven, all eyes turn to the crease.[1] Former NHL goalie Devan Dubnyk joined Ryan Kennedy and Michael Traikos on The Hockey News Big Show to break down this intriguing battle between Alex Lyon and Jakub Dobes, questioning if it’s truly even at the 18:34 mark of the episode.

This series revives a historic rivalry, last seen in the playoffs during the 1998 conference semifinals when Buffalo swept Montreal. With both teams splitting their four regular-season meetings 2-2, goaltending could prove decisive in what promises to be a high-stakes affair.[1]

Jakub Dobes’ rise anchors Montreal’s crease

Jakub Dobes has been a revelation for the Canadiens, stepping into the starter’s role around late January and never looking back. The 24-year-old Czech netminder led all rookies with 29 regular-season wins, posting a 29-10-4 record, 2.78 goals-against average (GAA), and .901 save percentage.[2] His takeover came amid goaltending instability, as detailed in Montreal’s 2025-26 goaltending analysis, where he edged out veterans like Sam Montembeault.

In the first round against Tampa Bay, Dobes went 4-3 with a stellar 2.03 GAA and .923 save percentage, including a 28-of-29 performance in Game 7 to clinch the series.[1][3] He saved 4.4 goals above expected over seven games, thriving in low-scoring tilts that tested his positioning and rebound control.

Dobes dominated Buffalo in the regular season, going 2-0-0 with a 2.00 GAA and .943 save percentage across two starts. His composure shone in a 4-2 win on October 20 at Bell Centre, where he stopped 30 shots.[4] Postgame after a key Lightning win, Dobes credited his mindset: treating every game like a Game 7.[5]

Experts praise Dobes for maximizing his strengths, leading the NHL in goals saved above expected since March. His .959 save percentage across recent playoff games underscores why Montreal trusts him against Buffalo’s high-octane attack.[6]

As the series shifts to potentially higher-tempo play, Dobes’ ability to handle volume—41 saves in a March rally past Carolina—will be crucial.[7]

Alex Lyon’s playoff surge powers Buffalo

Alex Lyon entered the playoffs as Buffalo’s backup but quickly became the Sabres’ backbone. After relieving Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in Game 2 versus Boston, Lyon started the final four games, going 3-1 with a 1.14 GAA and .955 save percentage (106 of 111 shots).[1] As covered in this nhlinsight breakdown of Lyon’s playoff step-up, he posted a .969 SV% early on, including 24 saves in a 3-1 Game 3 win.[8]

Lyon’s regular-season numbers were solid: 20-10-4, 2.77 GAA, .907 SV%, and three shutouts. However, he struggled against Montreal specifically, going 0-2-0 with a 3.11 GAA and .902 SV%.[1] His journeyman experience across five NHL teams has honed his clutch play, saving 4.6 goals above expected in the first round.[9]

Insider Elliotte Friedman questioned Lyon’s sustainability on 32 Thoughts, noting his streaky finish (.847 SV% in last six starts) before a late injury. “Will the hot streak continue?” Friedman pondered, hinting at a possible return to Luukkonen.[9]

Lyon’s penalty-kill prowess and rebound control neutralized Boston’s stars. In Game 3 at TD Garden, he stonewalled Pavel Zacha on a 6-on-5 one-timer, sparking Buffalo’s rally.

With home ice, Lyon faces pressure to match Dobes’ volume handling, but his recent form suggests Buffalo’s offense—Tage Thompson’s seven points vs. Bruins—gives him an edge.

Head-to-head: Regular season sets the stage

The Sabres and Canadiens traded wins in four regular-season games, with goaltending often tipping the scales. Dobes’ two victories featured sharp angles and quick glove work, like denying Owen Power on a power play January 31.[10]

Lyon’s starts against Montreal exposed vulnerabilities, allowing multi-goal outputs. Yet, his first-round metrics dwarf regular-season woes, saving +4.6 goals expected.

Key stats comparison:

Playoff intensity amplifies these trends, with Dobes’ experience vs. Buffalo a slight edge.

Montreal’s defense limited Lightning chances; Buffalo must generate traffic to test Dobes early.

Expert views: Even matchup or Buffalo edge?

On The Hockey News Big Show, Dubnyk analyzed Dobes at 15:26, praising his poise, before turning to Lyon at 18:34: “Is this an even goalie matchup?” The panel leaned toward parity, citing both netminders’ hot streaks.

Friedman echoed caution for Lyon but gave Buffalo a 62% advancement chance per models, emphasizing goaltending volatility.[9]

In NHL’s official preview, no clear favorite emerges, with stars like Nick Suzuki (eight points vs. BUF reg.) and Alex Tuch balancing offenses.

Rotation risks loom: Montreal used three goalies reg. season; Buffalo switched mid-series.

X-factors beyond the pipes

At 19:45 on Big Show, the X-factor emerged: defensive support and special teams. Buffalo’s power play clicked vs. Bruins; Montreal’s penalty kill held firm vs. TBL.

• Suzuki/Caufield: Montreal’s top line tallied heavily vs. Sabres.
• Thompson/Dahlin: Buffalo’s duo dominated reg. meetings.
• Injuries: Lyon’s pre-playoff scare adds intrigue.[11]

Pace could favor Buffalo’s speed, but Montreal’s grit in Game 7s shines.

This series tests young legs against playoff pedigree, with goaltending as the fulcrum.

As Game 1 looms May 6 at KeyBank Center, the Sabres-Canadiens duel promises drama, echoing past rivalries. Whichever goalie imposes their will—Dobes’ steadiness or Lyon’s surge—could propel their team toward the conference final. Fans should brace for seven games, where crease mastery decides the next chapter in both franchises’ resurgent playoff runs.[12]