The 2026 Milan Cortina Winter Olympics mark the return of NHL players to the Olympic stage after more than a decade away. This best-on-best tournament promises high drama, with superstars like Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews and Leon Draisaitl finally getting their shot at Olympic gold. Every team enters with unique storylines, from underdogs fueled by home crowds to powerhouses relying on elite talent. What separates contenders from pretenders often boils down to one key “X factor”—a player, group or element that could swing fortunes.
These X factors range from veteran leadership and young phenoms to goaltending stability. As rosters were finalized in late January, analysts highlighted how these pivotal pieces could dictate outcomes in a short, intense tournament. From Italy’s passionate fans to Canada’s superstar core, here’s a team-by-team breakdown.
Italy: Home soil advantage
Italy hosts the tournament but lacks NHL depth, opting for familiar players over experienced imports. The electric atmosphere from soccer-style supporters could spark overperformance, much like underdogs in past Olympics. If fans pack arenas in Milan, they might intimidate opponents like Slovakia or Germany.
Goaltending will be crucial for the Italians, who aim to stay competitive through camaraderie and luck. A hot netminder combined with crowd energy could lead to upsets in group play. Historical home boosts, such as Slovenia’s 2014 run, show it’s possible.
Team unity stands out amid talent shortages. Players know each other well from domestic leagues, fostering trust. Belief in themselves, amplified by supporters, forms the true X factor.
Expect tight games early. If Italy steals points, momentum builds for the knockout stage. A medal run seems unlikely, but scares are realistic.
This factor tests mental resilience. Home pressure can crush or elevate—Italy leans toward the latter with fan fervor.
France: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare’s veteran spark
France fields just one active NHLer, but 41-year-old Pierre-Edouard Bellemare brings 700 games and two Stanley Cup Final runs. His resurgence would ignite the team, handling faceoffs, penalty kills and net-front duties. Pairing with Alexandre Texier could unlock his grizzled edge.
Bellemare’s defensive reliability targets stars like David Pastrnak or Connor McDavid. He’s no scorer but excels at grinding. At his best, he keeps games close in a tough group.
Youth surrounds him, needing leadership. France lacks firepower, so veteran poise matters. A “Fountain of Youth” performance echoes his playoff grit.
Group stage survival hinges here. Competitive showings build confidence. Bellemare’s role expands in Olympics versus club play.
If he delivers, France avoids blowouts. His impact defines their ceiling—modest but meaningful.
Latvia: Goaltending stability
Latvia boasts three solid netminders: Kristers Gudlevskis, Elvis Merzlikins and Arturs Silovs, the latter a recent AHL Calder Cup winner. Facing high shot volumes, elite stops keep them in striking distance.
Merzlikins and Silovs handle prelims, backing a pesky forecheck. Lightning-in-a-bottle saves enable quarterfinal scares. Junior success hints at potential.
National spirit fuels upsets. Goaltending masks defensive lapses. Past Olympics saw similar surprises.
Rotation keeps goalies fresh. High-danger denial proves key. Latvia thrives in chaos.
This X factor decides upsets. Strong nets turn losses into wins.
Denmark: Scoring wingers Nikolaj Ehlers and Oliver Bjorkstrand
Frederik Andersen anchors goal, but wingers Ehlers and Bjorkstrand drive offense. Elevated roles demand rush creation and power-play magic. Ehlers’ speed sets up Bjorkstrand’s shot.
Andersen’s strength versus most foes relies on close games. Wingers must score at even strength. NHL minutes pale compared to Olympic duties.
Group exit potential rises with production. Historical Dane stars shone internationally. Power play clicks or crumbles here.
Depth lacks, so stars carry. Vs. USA tests limits. Success hinges on finish.
These two define advancement. Bursts propel Denmark forward.
Slovakia: The young core
Simon Nemec, Juraj Slafkovsky and Dalibor Dvorsky form Slovakia’s future. Nemec’s overtime prowess, Slafkovsky’s power and Dvorsky’s shot elevate them. Bigger roles than NHL clubs.
Nemec breaks games from defense. Slafkovsky grinds offensively. Dvorsky shines in shootouts.
International success for Slafkovsky bodes well. Overtime edges matter. Core gels for runs.
Youth versus experience tests mettle. Reliability keys medals. Past Slovak talents inspire.
This trio’s peak dictates depth.
Germany: Leon Draisaitl’s dominance
Draisaitl, a top-five global talent, pairs with Tim Stutzle for offense. End-to-end rushes humble defenders. Hart contender carries Germany.
Heavy minutes, power play and defense define him. Best on ice vs. Latvia, Denmark. Goaltending aids upsets.
Superstar hallmark for noise-makers. Vs. USA, game-breakers needed. Minute management preserves peak.
Elite talent challenges powers. Draisaitl’s best unbeatable.
Switzerland: The New Jersey Devils trio
Nico Hischier, Timo Meier and Jonas Siegenthaler from the Devils propel Switzerland. Siegenthaler kills penalties behind Roman Josi. Hischier faces top lines, wins faceoffs.
Meier powers through checks. Country elevates effort. Special teams rely here.
Tough outs if clicking. Struggles vs. Canada, Czechia without. Devils’ chemistry translates.
Matchups test. Medal push possible.
Czechia: Lukas Dostal in net
Dostal’s Vezina buzz early season makes him ceiling-highest. High-danger saves backstop medal hopes. Ducks’ chaos preps him.
Rotation risk with Vladar, Vejmelka. Starter role unlocks potential. Defense aids.
Quarterfinal exit looms otherwise. Elite stops withstand onslaughts.
Finland: Juuse Saros’ backbone
No Barkov hurts, but Saros steals behind defense. Vezina-level best contends medals. Depth with Aho, Hintz.
Historical staunch play fits. Rotation if off. Skillful yet defensive.
Sweden: Elias Pettersson’s resurgence
Injuries test depth; Pettersson steps up. Power-play dynamo needed. Tre Kronor elevates Swedes.
Form drought ends? Nylander, others reliable. Boost for gold.
United States: Goaltending trio
Hellebuyck, Oettinger, Swayman demand Vezina play. Low-scorers snubbed like Caufield. Tight games plan.
Ups and downs critical. Gold or bust. Discourse shaper.
Canada: Superstar peak
McDavid, MacKinnon, Makar at best unstoppable. Depth luxuries. Binnington question.
History repeats dominance.
These X factors illuminate paths to glory. Tournament starts soon—watch for sparks. Gold awaits the ignited.
Frequently Asked Questions
Par Mike Jonderson
Mike Jonderson is a passionate hockey analyst and expert in advanced NHL statistics. A former college player and mathematics graduate, he combines his understanding of the game with technical expertise to develop innovative predictive models and contribute to the evolution of modern hockey analytics.