2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy Race Tightens with Playoffs Looming

The Colorado Avalanche hold a slim lead in the race for the 2026 presidents’ trophy, sitting atop the standings with 98 points as the regular season enters its final stretch.[1][2] Just two points back are the Dallas Stars at 96, while the Buffalo Sabres and Carolina Hurricanes share 92 points, making this one of the closest top-of-the-league battles in recent memory. With about 15 games left for most contenders before the April 16 conclusion, every matchup carries weight. The presidents’ trophy, awarded since 1985-86 to the team with the best regular-season record, offers home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs—but history shows it’s no guarantee of Stanley Cup success.

In the salary cap era, only the 2007-08 Detroit Red Wings and 2012-13 Chicago Blackhawks converted the trophy into a championship. Two of the last seven winners fell in the first round, underscoring the playoff curse. Still, six teams lurk within 10 points: Minnesota Wild (90), Tampa Bay Lightning (88), and others nipping at the heels. Stathletes projections favor the Avalanche at 117.3 points, but the Stars (112.5), Hurricanes (110.1), Lightning (108.1), Wild (106.4), and Sabres (105.8) could disrupt that script.[3]

Current standings leaders

Colorado’s dominance stems from 39 regulation wins and a points pace of 119.9, bolstered by stars like Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar driving the offense. The Avalanche face the Chicago Blackhawks tonight, a chance to extend their lead before Dallas plays Minnesota on Saturday. Their consistency has them projected as the top seed in the Central Division, facing WC2 Los Angeles Kings in a potential first-round matchup.

Dallas sits second with 96 points and 33 regulation wins, pacing at 115.8. The Stars’ balanced attack and goaltending have kept them close, but they must navigate a tough road game against the Wild, who trail at 90 points but boast a 105.4 pace with fewer games left. Minnesota’s resilience positions them as C3, clashing with Dallas in the projected playoffs.

Buffalo leads the Atlantic at 92 points with 36 regulation wins, on a 109.3 pace and 99.6% playoff odds. They host the Kings on Saturday after a 5-0 shutout of San Jose last night. Carolina matches Buffalo’s points but leads the Metro as M1 with a 110.9 pace, facing Toronto tonight—a pivotal Eastern clash.

Tampa Bay, at 88 points, has the most ground to cover but a favorable 107.7 pace and two games in hand. Their 6-2 win over Vancouver last night keeps them A2, with a Saturday tilt at Edmonton looming. These teams’ recent form—Buffalo’s five-game win streak vibe, Tampa’s offensive explosion—fuels the drama.

As detailed in the full league standings, these metrics highlight why the race remains fluid.[1]

Stathletes projections and betting odds

Stathletes’ models predict Colorado pulling away, but Dallas and Carolina pose real threats with superior remaining schedules. The Lightning’s projection at 108.1 reflects their clutch play, while Buffalo and Minnesota round out the contenders. These forecasts factor in strength of schedule, injuries, and hot streaks—like Tampa’s recent six goals against Vancouver.

Betting markets echo this, listing the Avalanche as +310 favorites early in the season, with the Stars and Hurricanes close behind.[4] Odds have shifted as Buffalo and Tampa surged, per sites like BetMGM. “The Avs’ depth makes them the safe pick, but don’t sleep on Dallas,” one analyst noted. Projections from early power rankings, like our week 6 analysis, showed Colorado’s rise foreshadowing this battle.

Historical parallels add intrigue: Last year’s Winnipeg Jets won with 116 points but exited early, mirroring the trophy’s playoff pitfalls. If Tampa climbs, their Vasilevskiy-led defense could echo Chicago’s 2013 run.

The Wild’s fewer games left give them an edge, potentially vaulting to 106+ points. Sabres’ 99.6% playoff lock underscores their legitimacy.

Key games and recent results

Tonight’s slate features Colorado at Chicago (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+) and Carolina at Toronto (7 p.m., NHL Network)—wins here could swing momentum. Saturday brings Dallas at Minnesota (4 p.m., ESPN+), Buffalo at LA (4 p.m.), and Tampa at Edmonton (10 p.m.), all trophy-impacting.

Last night’s action tightened things: Buffalo’s 5-0 blanking of San Jose, Tampa’s 6-2 rout of Vancouver, and Columbus’s 6-3 upset of the Rangers boosted contenders indirectly. Boston’s 6-1 thrashing of Winnipeg and Florida’s 4-0 shutout of Edmonton reshuffled wild cards.

These results echo early-season surprises covered in our quarter-season report cards, where Buffalo and Carolina were pegged for contention.

Head-to-heads loom: Avs vs. Stars later, potential Sabres-Lightning Atlantic clashes. “Every point matters now,” Avalanche coach Jared Bednar said post recent win.

Historical context and playoff curse

The presidents’ trophy’s allure fades in playoffs—recent winners like 2025 Jets faltered first round. Detroit ‘08 and Chicago ‘13 succeeded via depth, a blueprint for current leaders.

Colorado’s 119.9 pace rivals Boston’s record 135 in 2023, but first-round WC2 LA awaits. Dallas faces Minnesota, a grinder matchup.

For full historical winners, see NHL.com’s list.[5]

Eastern foes like Buffalo vs. WC1 Boston test resilience.

What it means moving forward

With 13-15 games left, the race hinges on execution. A Colorado slip opens doors for Dallas or Carolina, while Tampa needs wins to stay alive. Home ice throughout playoffs is prize enough, but avoiding the curse defines legacies.

Track daily via playoff watches—these contenders shape not just the trophy, but draft lottery too, with Vancouver leading the race for No. 1 pick Gavin McKenna. Expect volatility until April 16.