The NHL’s 2025-26 season has reached its critical first-quarter milestone, with every team having played more than 20 games and the playoff picture beginning to take shape. What makes this quarter mark particularly fascinating is the unprecedented parity across the league—Colorado leads the NHL standings by a mere three points, while nine points separate all 16 teams in the Eastern Conference standings, a first in league history according to NHL Stats 1. This compressed schedule, designed to accommodate Olympic participation in February, has created a relentless pace where teams play every other day or on back-to-back nights, leaving minimal practice time and maximum pressure.
As we evaluate each team’s performance, the grades reflect not just points percentage and standings position, but also preseason expectations, underlying metrics, injury management, and sustainability of early trends. From Stanley Cup favorites struggling to find their footing to rebuilding franchises exceeding all projections, the first quarter has delivered surprises across the board.

Top-tier performers: Teams earning A grades
Colorado Avalanche: The gold standard (A+)
No team has dominated the opening quarter quite like the Avalanche. They’re not just winning—they’re rewriting what dominance looks like in the modern NHL. Leading the league in goals per game (4.00) while simultaneously allowing the fewest goals per game, Colorado has achieved the rare offensive-defensive balance that coaches dream about. Their underlying numbers support the eye test: the Avalanche generate the most scoring chances per 60 minutes, shots per 60, and scoring chances per 60 in 5-on-5 play, while ranking top-10 in fewest shots allowed per 60.
Superstar center Nathan MacKinnon has positioned himself for a second Hart Trophy, while defenseman Cale Makar isn’t just competing for his third Norris Trophy—he’s making a legitimate case to challenge his teammate for league MVP. At their current 137.9-point pace, the Avalanche threaten to surpass the Bruins’ record 135 points from 2022-23. The only blemish? A surprisingly mediocre power play converting at just 15.7%, but when you’re dominating 5-on-5 play this thoroughly, special teams become less critical.
Anaheim Ducks: Pacific division surprise (A)
Perhaps no team has shattered expectations more dramatically than the Ducks. Projected for a modest 83.5 points in preseason over/under lines, Anaheim currently sits on a 108.1-point pace and is fighting for the Pacific Division crown. Second in the NHL in goals per game, the Ducks have found a perfect blend of veteran leadership and youthful explosiveness.
Offseason addition Chris Kreider has delivered 14 points in his first 15 games, but the real story is Leo Carlsson’s meteoric rise. The young forward is on pace for 108 points, which would rank among the greatest individual seasons in franchise history—potentially surpassing Teemu Selanne’s record of 109 points. However, Anaheim’s defensive structure remains a concern. They rank in the top three in most scoring chances allowed, shots against, and high-danger chances allowed per 60, placing enormous pressure on goaltender Lukas Dostal, who has started 17 of 22 games. Dostal’s 5.42 goals saved above expected ranks sixth among goalies with 10+ games, but his workload projects to 63 games—territory typically reserved for elite starters like Connor Hellebuyck and Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Dallas Stars: Efficiency over volume (A)
Glen Gulutzan’s second tenure behind the Stars bench has been defined by surgical precision rather than overwhelming offensive pressure. Despite ranking in the bottom 10 in scoring chances per 60, shots per 60, and high-danger scoring chances per 60, Dallas sits fourth in goals per game and boasts the NHL’s second-best power play unit. This efficiency-first approach has the Stars on a 111.8-point pace, comfortably above their 103.5 preseason projection.
The Stars lost significant forward depth in Evgenii Dadonov, Mikael Granlund, and Mason Marchment during the offseason, yet the remaining core has adapted smoothly to Gulutzan’s system. Defensively, the disconnect between their even-strength performance (top 10 in fewest goals allowed) and penalty kill success (75.7%, bottom 10) represents the primary area for improvement. If they can shore up the man-down situations, Dallas could emerge as a legitimate Stanley Cup threat.
Detroit Red Wings: Yzerman’s vision realized (A)
After years of methodical rebuilding, the Red Wings are experiencing their best start in a decade—and it’s no accident. GM Steve Yzerman’s blueprint for a high-skilled, defensively responsible team has materialized under first-year coach Todd McLellan, producing a 96.3-point pace that dramatically exceeds their 84.5 preseason expectation.
Captain Dylan Larkin leads the team in goals and points while providing crucial leadership to rookies Emmitt Finnie and Nate Danielson. Defensively, Detroit allows among the fewest shots against per game, with rookie Axel Sandin-Pellikka emerging as a vital depth piece. The goaltending tandem of Cam Talbot and offseason acquisition John Gibson remains a question mark, as the Red Wings still surrender over three goals per game despite strong underlying defensive metrics. Their power play has masked even-strength scoring deficiencies, a dependency that must evolve for sustained success.
New York Islanders: Roy’s resurgence (A)
Few predicted the Islanders would be Atlantic Division contenders, yet here they sit with a 99.8-point pace, 15 points above preseason projections. The arrival of rookie defenseman Matthew Schaefer—the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 draft—has been transformative. Schaefer plays over 22 minutes per game and looks like the Calder Trophy favorite, while fellow rookie Maxim Shabanov has burst onto the scene with a three-point performance during a dominant 6-1-0 road trip.
Veterans Bo Horvat, Mathew Barzal, and Kyle Palmieri have provided consistent offense, while the goaltending duo of Ilya Sorokin and David Rittich has been reliable. The power play remains a weakness (among the league’s worst), and the recent loss of Alexander Romanov to shoulder surgery for five-to-six months tests their defensive depth. Still, the Islanders have exceeded every expectation through smart coaching and youthful energy.
Pittsburgh Penguins: Muse’s masterclass (A)
The Penguins represent the Eastern Conference’s biggest surprise, projecting for 97.6 points after most analysts pegged them for 77.5 and an Atlantic Division basement finish. First-year coach Dan Muse has installed a system that maximizes player freedom while maintaining defensive discipline, resulting in the league’s best power play and second-fewest goals allowed.
Arturs Silovs and Tristan Jarry have formed a capable goaltending tandem, while the entire roster has bought into Muse’s vision. Pittsburgh’s lone weakness is overtime performance—they’re 0-4 in games beyond regulation—but in a standings race this tight, those lost points could prove costly. Rickard Rakell’s two-month absence with a broken hand and Jarry’s recent IR stint test the Penguins’ depth, but their early success suggests this isn’t a fluke.
Carolina Hurricanes & New Jersey Devils: Maintaining excellence (A-)
The Hurricanes continue their template of smothering defensive play, sitting on an 111.8-point pace despite bottom-ranked power play conversion. Seth Jarvis leads the team in goals, Sebastian Aho paces them in points, and Pyotr Kochetkov has excelled while Frederik Andersen struggles with injuries and performance. Rod Brind’Amour’s structure remains elite, though Andersen represents a goaltending conundrum that could derail postseason ambitions.
New Jersey’s star-studded offense has produced a 108.1-point pace, with Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, and Nico Hischier driving production. Defenseman Simon Nemec has blossomed into a two-way force, while veteran Jake Allen has handled an increased workload admirably. Hughes’ recent finger surgery (requiring multiple weeks on IR) and simultaneous injuries to Cody Glass and Brett Pesce test the Devils’ depth, but their talent pipeline appears robust enough to weather the storm.
Strong contenders: Teams earning B grades
Eastern conference overachievers (B+)
The Boston Bruins (88.8-point pace) have embraced Marco Sturm’s defense-first structure despite Elias Lindholm’s extended absence, while the Philadelphia Flyers (97.6-point pace) have ridden Dan Vladar’s breakout goaltending and Travis Sanheim’s defensive leadership into wild-card contention. Both teams exceed preseason expectations by more than eight points and demonstrate that strong coaching can elevate limited rosters.
In the Atlantic, the Montreal Canadiens (97.6-point pace) have seen rookie goaltender Jakub Dobes emerge as a backbone, complementing Cole Caufield’s 13 goals and Nick Suzuki’s 22 points in 20 games. The injury bug continues to plague Montreal, with Kaiden Guhle, Kirby Dach, Patrik Laine, and Alex Newhook all sidelined, but their early defensive improvements suggest last season’s playoff appearance was no accident.
Western conference depth (B+)
<<<<<<< HEAD The Chicago Blackhawks (89.5-point pace) have transformed last season’s weaknesses into strengths, with Connor Bedard pacing for 116 points—the highest-scoring Blackhawks season not named Denis Savard. Spencer Knight’s goaltending has produced a .911 team save percentage (fourth in NHL), a massive improvement from last season’s .894 mark. Defensive structure remains a work in progress given their youth, but the trajectory is undeniable.
Seattle’s goaltending investment has paid dividends, with Joey Daccord, Philipp Grubauer, and Matt Murray combining for the NHL’s best team save percentage in 5-on-5 play. Their 104.4-point pace defies their 78.5 preseason line, though scoring 2.55 goals per game (third-fewest in the league) creates razor-thin margins. The Kraken lead the league in fewest high-danger chances allowed, but they’ll need more offense to secure a playoff spot.
Vegas (100.6-point pace) has maintained defensive continuity without Alex Pietrangelo, ranking top-three in limiting high-danger chances and shots per 60. However, a disconnect between their structure and goaltending performance (.893 team save percentage, bottom third in NHL) complicates their championship aspirations.
Midsuccess in the middle
The Columbus Blue Jackets (89.1-point pace), Los Angeles Kings (99.8-point pace), Minnesota Wild (99.8-point pace), Ottawa Senators (96.9-point pace), Tampa Bay Lightning (104.4-point pace), and Winnipeg Jets (93.7-point pace) all occupy the crowded middle ground where playoff positions shift daily.
The Kings’ defensive consistency has erased memories of last season’s first-round collapse against Edmonton, while the Wild’s roster health (eight players appearing in every game) has stabilized their season. Ottawa’s recommitment to Travis Green’s defensive structure has them competing for an Atlantic playoff spot despite Linus Ullmark’s Vezina hangover.
Tampa Bay’s championship pedigree shows through injuries to Aleksander Barkov (season-ending ACL/MCL tear) and Matthew Tkachuk, with Brad Marchand delivering his best hockey in years. Winnipeg faces a critical six-week stretch without Connor Hellebuyck, testing whether Eric Comrie and Thomas Milic can maintain their top-five team save percentage.
Fading but not finished (B-)
Florida (93.2-point pace) and Utah Mammoth (96.3-point pace) have shown flashes of brilliance amid inconsistency. The Panthers’ injury list reads like a medical textbook—Barkov’s season-ending injury, Eetu Luostarinen’s barbecuing accident burns, Cole Schwindt’s broken arm—yet they remain competitive through championship experience.
Utah’s seven-game winning streak showed their potential, with top-five performances in goals for, goals against, and shots differential during that stretch. However, subsequent three-game losing streaks have revealed their fragility, dropping them to bottom-four in goals scored and bottom-10 in goals allowed during their recent 3-9-0 slide.
Middling marks: Teams earning C grades
Eastern conference inconsistency
Washington (92.7-point pace) clings to playoff contention through Alex Ovechkin’s age-defying performance (20 points in 20 games at age 40) and Logan Thompson’s outstanding goaltending. Yet the Capitals rank bottom-five in penalty kill and lack the consistent scoring depth that propelled them to the Eastern Conference summit last season.
Buffalo (82-point pace) continues its historically long playoff drought despite discovering a goaltending gem in waiver claim Colten Ellis (.914 save percentage in his first four games). The Sabres’ league-best penalty kill (89.8%) can’t mask defensive leaks, top-heavy scoring, and a sputtering power play. Their 1-5-2 start and subsequent recovery illustrates the fragility of Lindy Ruff’s system.
Conference finalists struggling
Toronto (78.3-point pace) and the New York Rangers (82-point pace) own two of the most disappointing starts despite high expectations. The Maple Leafs’ post-Mitch Marner era has been defined by defensive chaos—they rank top-three in goals against per game and struggle against the rush. John Tavares’ resurgence (12 goals in 21 games) and William Nylander’s 27 points in 19 games can’t compensate for injuries to Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies, and the entire blue line.
The Rangers’ defensive commitment under Mike Sullivan has been exceptional (2.65 goals against per game), but their 30th-ranked offense (2.48 goals per game) has rendered them goalless. J.T. Miller, Mika Zibanejad, and Artemi Panarin have all underperformed, creating a team with elite defense and no identity.
Edmonton (85.4-point pace) sits just one point from a wild-card spot, but giving up seven goals to Washington marked the 13th time in 22 games they’ve allowed four-plus goals. The Oilers own the NHL’s worst team save percentage and most goals allowed, wasting Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl’s point-per-game brilliance.
Disappointing starts: Teams earning D grades
Offensive black holes
Calgary (64.9-point pace) and Nashville (59.6-point pace) are competing for historically inept offensive seasons. The Flames’ 2.38 goals per game ranks second-worst in the NHL and would place them among the bottom 200 teams in league history. Despite top-four underlying defensive metrics in scoring chances and high-danger chances allowed, Calgary simply cannot score.
Nashville’s 2.29 goals-per-game average represents the lowest in the league and threatens to become one of the most offense-challenged seasons ever. Filip Forsberg continues building his franchise legend, and rookie Matthew Wood has Calder potential, but Steven Stamkos is on pace for fewer than 20 goals for the first time in his career. Their above-average penalty kill offers little consolation.
Injury-ravaged rosters
Vancouver (71.3-point pace) and St. Louis (71.3-point pace) have been decimated by injuries. The Canucks needed 29 skaters and three goaltenders through 23 games, with Thatcher Demko’s early Vezina form quickly erased by health issues. Defensive structure collapsed entirely, with Vancouver ranking worst or second-worst in shots, scoring chances, and high-danger chances allowed per 60.
The Blues entered the season as playoff contenders after adding 25-goal scorer Pius Suter, yet sit five points from a wild-card spot thanks to the fourth-lowest team save percentage and fifth-fewest goals per game. Their defensive structure actually limits chances effectively (top-10 in fewest scoring chances and high-danger chances allowed), but goaltending failures have rendered that structure meaningless.
Conclusion: What the first quarter teaches us about the playoff race
The NHL 2025-26 first-quarter report cards reveal a league defined by unprecedented parity and compressed-schedule chaos. With nine points separating an entire conference and 90 games already reaching overtime (a record pace), the standings represent less a mountain than a “middle of the forest,” as Red Wings coach Todd McLellan aptly described 1. Teams like Colorado, Anaheim, and Detroit have earned their high marks through sustainable processes and elite talent development, while traditional powers like Edmonton, Toronto, and the Rangers struggle to find identity.
The takeaway is clear: every point matters more than ever. Pittsburgh’s 0-4 overtime record or Toronto’s 1-5-2 slide could determine playoff fates in a system where losing teams still gain points. As the season progresses toward the Olympic break, expect more separation—but don’t anticipate significant gaps. The compressed schedule and salary cap parity have created a 32-team race where even Nashville’s historically bad start doesn’t eliminate them mathematically.
For deeper analysis on individual team progressions and second-quarter projections, check out our complete quarter-season breakdown with advanced metrics and weekly grade updates. With 75% of the season remaining, today’s A-grade teams must maintain their standards while F-grade clubs have time for redemption—though in this tight race, time is already running short.
Sources:
Middle of the pack: Teams earning C grades
Washington Capitals: Ovechkin carries the load
Alex Ovechkin continues to defy time, tying for the team lead with 20 points in 20 games while potting hat tricks at age 40. Tom Wilson, John Carlson, and Jakob Chychrun provide veteran support, while Logan Thompson has been outstanding in net.
The Capitals sit in playoff position with a 92.7-point pace, but something feels off. Spencer Carbery’s attempt to build a faster team hasn’t fully materialized, and the power play ranks below average.
What’s concerning: The penalty kill sits in the bottom five, and the supporting cast hasn’t consistently contributed. Pierre-Luc Dubois’s injury further thins their depth down the middle.
Key stat: Washington’s power play ranks 22nd, their worst mark since 2013-14.
Grade: C+
Toronto Maple Leafs: A franchise in crisis
The Maple Leafs sit at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings with a 78.3-point pace, looking nothing like the team that reached the playoffs last season. Injuries have been devastating—Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies, Chris Tanev, Brandon Carlo, Anthony Stolarz, and both Nicolas Roy and Scott Laughton have missed significant time.
John Tavares has been brilliant with 12 goals in 21 games, and William Nylander has 27 points in 19 games. Nick Robertson has emerged as a reliable top-six option, and Joseph Woll’s return from personal leave has stabilized goaltending.
What’s concerning: Everything else. The defense-first system that worked last season has collapsed, leaving Toronto top three in goals against per game. The team lacks identity and chemistry, and recent 1-5-2 stretch has them searching for answers.
Key stat: The Leafs have allowed 3.84 goals per game, their worst defensive mark since 2015-16.
Grade: C-
New York Rangers: Defense without offense
Mike Sullivan has transformed the Rangers into a defensive powerhouse, ranking second in goals against per game (2.65). Vladislav Gavrikov has been a perfect partner for Adam Fox, and the goaltending tandem of Igor Shesterkin and Jonathan Quick has been excellent.
The problem? They can’t score. The Rangers rank 30th in offense at 2.48 goals per game. J.T. Miller’s captaincy has gotten off to an abysmal start—12 points in 22 games before his upper-body injury, plus that viral shift that showed concerning effort levels. Mika Zibanejad has been invisible, and Artemi Panarin isn’t producing at his usual rate.
What’s concerning: With Miller now injured, the offensive burden falls entirely on a sputtering power play and inconsistent depth scoring. The defensive identity is solid, but you need goals to win.
Grade: C-
Struggling franchises: Teams earning D grades
Calgary Flames: Offense goes missing
The Flames own the worst record in the NHL with a 64.9-point pace, sitting 10 points out of a wild-card spot. Their defensive structure is actually playoff-caliber—top four in allowing the fewest scoring chances and high-danger chances per 60.
The problem is historically anemic offense. Calgary is averaging 2.38 goals per game, the second-lowest mark in the league. Nazem Kadri has been mentioned in trade rumors, but management appears reluctant to move him despite the season being effectively lost.
What’s concerning: At their current pace, the Flames would finish with the 200th-worst offensive season in NHL history. A recent three-game winning streak against weak competition may have fooled management into thinking they shouldn’t rebuild.
Key stat: Calgary scored 50 goals in their first 21 games, the fewest in the league by 12.
Grade: D
Vancouver Canucks: Injury avalanche buries season
The Canucks showed promise by winning four of their first six games, with Thatcher Demko looking like his Vezina-finalist self and Filip Chytil answering questions about his top-six potential. Kiefer Sherwood exploded for nine goals in October, raising hopes of a depth scoring renaissance.
Then everything collapsed. Since October 21, Vancouver has endured three separate three-game losing streaks while using 29 skaters and three goaltenders through 23 games. They’re dead last in allowing shots, scoring chances, and high-danger chances per 60.
What’s concerning: The injury list is endless, and the defensive structure has completely disintegrated. This looks like a lost season before December.
Grade: D
St. Louis Blues: Goaltending betrays structure
The Blues have been one of the season’s biggest disappointments, on pace for just 71.3 points despite being a playoff team last season. Their defensive structure is sound—top 10 in limiting scoring chances and high-danger chances per 60.
But the goaltending has been catastrophic, posting the fourth-lowest team save percentage in all situations and fifth-worst at 5-on-5. This has turned their solid defensive structure into the third-most goals allowed per game (3.64). Offensively, they’re averaging the fifth-fewest goals per game, with Pius Suter’s addition failing to spark the attack.
What’s concerning: The Blues are five points out of a wild-card spot with multiple teams to leapfrog. Their season hangs in the balance.
Grade: D-
Historic failure: The one F grade
Nashville Predators: Offense at historic lows
Nashville has been the worst team in the NHL by a significant margin, on pace for just 59.6 points. They were the last team to score 50 goals this season, and their 2.29 goals-per-game average ranks last in the league.
At this pace, the Predators would finish among the 125 most offensively challenged seasons in NHL history. They’re also giving up the sixth-most goals per game, have a bottom-seven power play, and are playing without their best player Roman Josi for most of the season.
Filip Forsberg continues building his franchise legacy, projecting to reach 30 goals for the fourth time in five seasons. Matthew Wood has been a bright spot, making a case for the All-Rookie Team. But Steven Stamkos is on pace for fewer than 20 goals for the first time in a non-injury season.
What’s concerning: Everything. This is a team in desperate need of a rebuild, and the “transitional phase” mentality isn’t working. Coach Andrew Brunette’s job security remains questionable.
Key stat: Nashville’s power play operates at 14.2%, and their penalty kill is below league average. They’ve been outscored by 38 goals through 21 games.
Grade: F
Looking ahead: What these grades mean for the playoff race
The first quarter has revealed a clear hierarchy in the Western Conference, where Colorado’s dominance has created a massive 21-point gap between first and worst. In the East, nine points separate the Hurricanes from the Maple Leafs, creating a mad dash for playoff positioning where every point matters.
Teams like Pittsburgh, Anaheim, and the New York Islanders have proven that preseason predictions mean little, while Toronto, Calgary, and Nashville have shown that talent alone doesn’t guarantee success. As the schedule intensifies and the Olympic break approaches, these early report cards will either serve as motivation for turnaround stories or validation of sustained excellence.
For more detailed analysis on specific team performances, check out our complete first-quarter breakdown with player grades and advanced metrics. Additionally, our quarter-season report cards with advanced analytics provides deeper insight into what’s driving these early-season results.
The next quarter will separate contenders from pretenders, and with trade season approaching, these grades could look very different by the season’s midpoint. One thing is certain: the 2025-26 NHL season has already delivered more surprises than anyone expected.
e19e77c1f879e5c65d7ceee27efca4d02b90d16a
Footnotes
Frequently Asked Questions
Par Mike Jonderson
Mike Jonderson is a passionate hockey analyst and expert in advanced NHL statistics. A former college player and mathematics graduate, he combines his understanding of the game with technical expertise to develop innovative predictive models and contribute to the evolution of modern hockey analytics.