Where do the Ottawa Senators currently stand in the Eastern Conference playoff race?

The Senators have 81 points with 13 games remaining, placing them just outside the playoffs. They trail the New York Islanders by four points for the second wild card, and the Boston Bruins and Montreal Canadiens by five points. Their position is fifth in the Atlantic Division, with a points pace of 96.3 and a tragic number of 22.

What are Stathletes' projections for the Senators' playoff chances?

Stathletes gives Ottawa a 68% chance of making the postseason, projecting them to finish with 98.0 points. This would secure a wild card spot ahead of the Islanders' projected 96.0 points. The projections factor in schedule strength, recent form, regulation wins, and goaltending stability.

How does Ottawa's remaining schedule compare to competitors?

Ottawa faces 13 games, with only seven against current playoff teams, providing a lighter head-to-head slate. Competitors like Montreal have eight such games, Boston eight in 12 games, and Islanders six in 11. This schedule strength gives the Senators an edge according to Stathletes.

What are the key upcoming matchups for the Senators?

Key games include April 2 at Buffalo, April 5 at Carolina, and late games against Tampa Bay. They have one remaining game against Buffalo after losing both prior meetings, one win over Tampa with two left, and a rematch at Carolina after two losses. Wins in these could significantly boost their standings.

What are the implications if Ottawa makes the playoffs?

A wild card berth could pit them against division leaders like Buffalo, Tampa, or Carolina in the first round. Success would mark a resurgence post-rebuild, led by players like Tim Stützle, Claude Giroux, and Linus Ullmark. Failure risks dropping into the draft lottery, where they currently rank 15th.

How has recent form impacted Ottawa's playoff push?

The Senators are 7-2-1 in their last 10 games, showing momentum especially against non-playoff teams. This form, combined with 30 regulation wins (third in Atlantic), bolsters their projections. Consistency against contenders remains crucial for securing points needed for playoffs.

2026 NHL Playoffs: Ottawa Senators Wild Card Push, Standings & Projections

The Ottawa Senators sit just outside the Eastern Conference playoff picture with 13 games remaining in the regular season. At 81 points, they trail the New York Islanders by four points for the second wild card, the Boston Bruins and Montreal Canadiens by five for the top wild card and Atlantic Division’s No. 3 seed, respectively.[1] A win Monday night against the out-of-contention New York Rangers could provide a crucial boost before a challenging stretch.

Stathletes projections give the Senators a 68% chance of sneaking into the postseason, with an expected points total of 98.0—enough for a wild card spot ahead of the Islanders’ projected 96.0.[2] This comes amid a tight race where every point matters, as the regular season wraps up April 16.

Current standings in the Atlantic and wild card race

Ottawa holds 81 points with 30 regulation wins, placing them fifth in the Atlantic Division. The Bruins lead the wild cards at 86 points, tied with the Canadiens but holding the edge via regulation wins.

The Senators’ points pace sits at 96.3, slightly ahead of some projections but requiring a strong finish. Their tragic number stands at 22, meaning 22 points earned by teams ahead could eliminate them.

Buffalo Sabres: 95 points, A1, 99.9% playoff chances, 11 games left.
Tampa Bay Lightning: 91 points, A2, 99.9%, 13 games left.
Montreal Canadiens: 86 points, A3, 87.5%, 13 games left.
Boston Bruins: 86 points, WC1, 69.5%, 12 games left.
Detroit Red Wings: 84 points, no position, 39%, 12 games left.
Ottawa Senators: 81 points, no position, 68%, 13 games left.[2]

In the Metro, the Islanders hold WC2 at 85 points but with only 37.8% chances. Philadelphia (80 points, 10.3%) and Washington (79 points, 7.8%) lurk but face tougher paths.

The Senators have momentum from recent play, including a strong showing against non-playoff teams. However, consistency against contenders will define their fate.

Breaking down the remaining schedule

Ottawa faces 13 games, seven against current playoff teams—their only direct clash with the Islanders, Bruins or Canadiens comes April 11 at New York. This lighter head-to-head slate could help if they rack up points elsewhere.

Comparatively, Montreal has 13 games with eight versus playoff clubs, Boston 12 with eight toughies, and the Islanders 11 with six. Ottawa’s schedule strength offers an edge per Stathletes.

Key upcoming matchups include April 2 at Buffalo, April 5 at Carolina, and late tilts with Tampa Bay. Wins here could flip the script.

For deeper dives into the Eastern wild card dynamics, check our analysis on projecting the eastern wild-card race in the 2026 NHL playoffs.

The Rangers game Monday on NHL Network (7:30 p.m. ET) serves as a must-win before Tuesday’s busier slate league-wide.

Stathletes projections and what they mean

Stathletes forecasts Montreal topping the Atlantic at 101.0 points for No. 3, with Boston (98.4) and Ottawa (98.0) grabbing wild cards over the Islanders (96.0). This simulation accounts for schedule strength, recent form and roster metrics.

Ottawa’s 68% odds reflect their regulation win total (30, third in the Atlantic) and goaltending stability. Yet, a slip against playoff foes could drop them below 50%.

Post-Olympics bubble watches highlighted Ottawa’s surge, aligning with these numbers. Our post-Olympics NHL bubble watch detailed similar tight margins.

These projections evolve daily—last night’s results, like the Islanders’ 1-0 win over Columbus, kept the race knotted.

Head-to-head results against division leaders

If Ottawa clinches a wild card, potential first-round foes like Buffalo, Tampa or Carolina loom large. The Senators lost both to Buffalo (one game left April 2), beat Tampa once (two remaining), and dropped both to Carolina (April 5 rematch).

These matchups underscore vulnerabilities. Buffalo’s A1 position (95 points, 109.7 pace) makes that finale pivotal.

Tampa sits second at 91 points, while Carolina leads the Metro at 96. Ottawa’s ability to steal points here determines seeding threats.

Recent form helps: Ottawa’s 7-2-1 in last 10, per standings. Tim Stützle and others must elevate.

Quotes from coach underscore urgency: “We’ve got the pieces; now execute,” as noted in recent previews.

Broader Eastern Conference playoff matchups

Current projected brackets pit A1 Buffalo vs. WC1 Boston, A2 Tampa vs. A3 Montreal, M1 Carolina vs. WC2 Islanders, and M2 Pittsburgh vs. M3 Columbus. Ottawa displacing Boston or Islanders shifts this dramatically.

Western races are set firmer, with Colorado (102 points), Dallas (97) and others locked in. Focus stays East for Sens fans.

Last night’s scores—Winnipeg’s SO win over Rangers, Carolina’s 5-1 rout of Pittsburgh—tightened bubbles. Islanders edged Columbus 1-0, preserving their slim lead.[1]

For full standings, see ESPN’s NHL playoff watch.

Path forward and draft implications

The Senators’ surge post-Olympics positions them well, but execution is key. A 98-point pace demands at least 17 more points from 13 games—roughly 1.3 per game.

Failure risks the draft lottery; Ottawa ranks 15th at 81 points, behind lottery leaders like Vancouver (50 points). No. 1 prospect Gavin McKenna awaits.

Success means playoffs, potentially upsetting higher seeds. Stützle, Giroux and Ullmark lead the charge.

Fans should watch closely—these final weeks could cement Ottawa’s resurgence or extend rebuild woes. With 68% odds, hope endures, but the road tests resolve.[3]

Ottawa Senators' wild card push in the 2026 NHL playoffs