Weighing the Toronto Maple Leafs' draft options between Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg

The Toronto Maple Leafs’ stunning win in the 2026 NHL draft lottery on May 5 has handed them the No. 1 overall pick, a rare opportunity with just 8.5 percent odds.[1] General manager John Chayka called it a “monumental type of opportunity,” while senior advisor Mats Sundin expressed delight for the fanbase.[1] Fans quickly flooded social media with images of consensus top prospect Gavin McKenna in a Leafs jersey, envisioning him as a dynamic partner for Auston Matthews. Yet the choice isn’t straightforward, as Swedish forward Ivar Stenberg has emerged as a legitimate rival at the top of draft rankings.[2]

This draft class is deep, and Toronto’s new leadership—Chayka and Sundin—must weigh skill sets, fit, and long-term vision. For context, check out our 2026 NHL draft lottery simulation where the Maple Leafs snag the top pick with McKenna. Both players project as elite talents, but their games differ in ways that could define the franchise’s next era.

Skating and mobility

Skating stands out as a key differentiator between McKenna and Stenberg. McKenna shines in tight spaces, using agility and quick feet to evade checks and dance through traffic. His shiftiness makes him elusive on open ice, a trait that’s powered his success at Penn State in the NCAA, where he’s led in points and assists as an 18-year-old freshman.[3]

Stenberg, playing in the SHL with Frolunda HC, excels in transition. His explosive crossovers and edge work allow him to burst up ice, making him a threat along the boards and in neutral-zone breakaways. At 17, he’s logged significant minutes in Sweden’s top league, fifth in team points and leading in Corsi, showcasing his ability to evade pressure dynamically.[3]

Scouts note Stenberg’s decisiveness; he uses speed to separate from defenders more consistently than McKenna, who sometimes lacks that pull-away gear. During the Beijer Hockey Games, Stenberg tallied five points in three games against pros, impressing Leafs defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson.

This edge could matter for Toronto’s need for puck movers post-Marner’s departure. Stenberg’s board work and transitional threat align with playoff styles, where space tightens.

In summary, both are strong skaters, but Stenberg’s open-ice prowess gives him the nod here.

• McKenna’s skating strengths: Quick in tight, agile, shifty dekes.
• Stenberg’s skating strengths: Transitional bursts, board battles, pressure evasion.
• Edge: Stenberg, for game impact.

Passing and playmaking

No category favors one player more than playmaking, where McKenna reigns supreme. His elite vision and creativity allow him to manipulate lanes, threading passes around defenders with silky puck skills. This has been evident throughout his WHL dominance with Medicine Hat and now at Penn State, where he’s a walking highlight as a setup man.[2]

Stenberg holds his own, crafting crisp, accurate passes across all zones. He excels under duress, especially off the walls—a skill honed in SHL battles. His high hockey IQ shines in reading plays, contributing to his 33 points in 43 games this season.

Yet McKenna’s dynamic flair sets him apart. He’s a generational talent here, the kind who elevates linemates like Matthews, potentially unlocking more goals for the captain.

Leafs players have noticed. While fans clamor for McKenna’s flash, Stenberg’s reliability appeals to the Swedish contingent on the roster.

Pairing either with Matthews could spark magic, but McKenna’s vision maximizes offensive output.

• McKenna: Elite creativity, lane manipulation.
• Stenberg: Accurate, pressure passes.
• Edge: McKenna decisively.

Shooting and scoring

Shooting is tighter, but Stenberg pulls ahead with a heavier release and net-front presence. He drives to high-danger areas, unafraid to battle for chances with or without the puck. His 11 goals in SHL underline this threat level.

McKenna’s shot is accurate and quick, but he doesn’t always seek prime slots. Improving location could elevate him further.

Stenberg’s habits make him more consistently dangerous, as seen in playoffs (four assists in six games) and World Juniors (10 points in seven).[4]

For Toronto, seeking balance after offensive-heavy eras, Stenberg’s scoring complements Matthews’ sniper style.

Both generate chances, but Stenberg’s edge lies in execution.

• McKenna: Pinpoint accuracy.
• Stenberg: Heavier shot, net drives.
• Edge: Stenberg.

Defensive impact

Stenberg dominates defensively with smart, system-based play. He disrupts lanes, wins board battles, and kills cycles—assets from SHL minutes. Not a wizard, but reliable.

McKenna struggles here, showing lackadaisical effort in his zone. He’s positionally sound when engaged but lacks physicality.

This gap highlights philosophies: McKenna needs sheltering, while Stenberg contributes 200 feet.

Leafs’ past playoff woes stemmed from similar issues; Stenberg addresses that.

Ekman-Larsson praised him: “A fantastic player who is playing much better than a normal junior-level player.”[5]

• McKenna: Smart when trying, but inconsistent.
• Stenberg: Solid, hardworking.
• Edge: Stenberg easily.

Puck skill and hands

McKenna’s hands are elite—dirty dangles and puck control toy with defenders. He’s a highlight machine.

Stenberg protects well, above average in control, but can’t match McKenna’s flash.

This separation is stark; McKenna’s edge defines his allure.

In college and juniors, McKenna’s dekes shine; Stenberg focuses on efficiency.

For flair-loving Leafs fans, McKenna delivers.

• McKenna: Special dekes, traffic handling.
• Stenberg: Solid protection.
• Edge: McKenna.

Processing and IQ

Both boast high IQs differently. Stenberg’s 200-foot game includes forecheck routes, space-finding, and transition cuts.

McKenna dictates offensively, spotting seams pre-emptively.

Stenberg’s versatility suits playoffs; McKenna thrives with puck.

Close call, elite in niches.

• McKenna: Offensive manipulation.
• Stenberg: All-situations reads.
• Edge: Push.

Fit with the Leafs’ philosophy

Toronto faces a pivotal choice in Buffalo. McKenna pairs seamlessly with Matthews, covering defensive lapses while feeding goals. But past high-skill teams flamed out playoffs.

Stenberg signals shift: playoff-ready, complementing Matthews/Knies cycles, aiding transitions. Swedish players like Ekman-Larsson push hard: “Yeah, I’m trying to recruit him a little bit.”[4]

Fans favor McKenna’s upside; players see Stenberg’s now-impact. Trading down for assets is possible.

This detailed THN breakdown captures the debate perfectly.[2]

New management might zig to Stenberg for contention.

The pick shapes Matthews’ retention and a new era.

Ultimately, McKenna’s the safe, flashy choice most expect, banking on his ceiling. But Stenberg could forge a tougher, deeper Leafs squad primed for playoffs. Whichever path Chayka takes, Toronto adds a cornerstone talent poised to elevate the franchise.[2]