The race for the top spot in the Atlantic division is fiercer than ever with just over a week remaining in the 2026 NHL regular season. Tampa Bay Lightning hold a slim lead with 102 points through 76 games, boosted by 39 regulation wins. Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens sit tied at 100 points apiece, but Buffalo edges ahead on 38 regulation wins compared to Montreal’s 32, all after 77 games.[1][2]
Tampa Bay clinched their playoff spot alongside Buffalo and Montreal over the weekend, thanks to Minnesota’s win over Detroit. While Carolina and Colorado have locked up their division titles, the Atlantic remains wide open for the crown. Tonight’s clash between the Lightning and Sabres could swing everything.
Current 2026 NHL Atlantic division standings
Standings in the Atlantic division highlight how bunched the top three teams are. Tampa Bay’s edge comes from fewer games played and more regulation wins, a key tiebreaker. Buffalo’s recent form has them surging, while Montreal fights to close the gap.
Here’s the top of the Atlantic as of April 6:
| Rank | Team | GP | Points | Regulation wins (RW) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 76 | 102 | 39 |
| 2 | Buffalo Sabres | 77 | 100 | 38 |
| 3 | Montreal Canadiens | 77 | 100 | 32 |
| 4 | Boston Bruins | 77 | 94 | ? |
Regulation wins will decide ties if points even out. Tampa Bay’s 39 RW give them breathing room, but Buffalo could catch up with a win tonight. Montreal needs help, as fewer RW hurt in multi-team ties.
The full NHL standings show wild-card spots also in flux, with Boston holding WC1.[4]
Lower teams like Ottawa and Pittsburgh battle for positioning. Lottery teams trail far behind.
Crucial matchup: Lightning at Sabres tonight
All eyes turn to Buffalo tonight at 7 p.m. ET on NHL Network. Tampa Bay visits the Sabres in their final regular-season meeting after Buffalo’s wild 8-7 win earlier, which featured 102 penalty minutes. A Lightning victory clinches the division title mathematically in many scenarios.
Tampa Bay’s remaining slate includes tough tests: at Montreal Thursday, then Ottawa, Boston, Detroit, and New York Rangers. Three playoff teams and a bubble side make it challenging.
Buffalo faces easier foes post-tonight: Rangers, Columbus, Chicago, Dallas. Two lottery teams, one fringe playoff, one likely seeded.
This game echoes the intensity of past rivalries, much like Buffalo’s surge detailed in our coverage of the Sabres’ transformation into contenders.
Montreal’s path and remaining schedule
Montreal plays Tampa Bay tonight indirectly via the standings ripple. Their schedule: Florida, Columbus, Islanders, Philadelphia. Tougher than Buffalo’s but softer than Tampa’s, with Isles and Flyers scrapping for seeds.
The Canadiens punched their ticket Sunday but crave the division crown for home ice. Fewer RW means they must outpace Buffalo too.
Projections from Stathletes favor Tampa Bay at 109.5 projected points, Montreal 107.4, Buffalo 105.7. But schedules suggest upsets possible.
As explored in our NHL playoff races insights, Montreal’s depth has been key amid injuries.
Tiebreakers and playoff implications
Regulation wins (RW) top the tiebreaker list, followed by ROW (regulation + OT wins), then head-to-head. Tampa leads RW decisively.
Current matchups:
Eastern Conference
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A1 Tampa Bay vs. WC1 Boston
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A2 Buffalo vs. A3 Montreal
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M1 Carolina vs. WC2 Ottawa
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M2 Pittsburgh vs. M3 Philadelphia[1]
Division winner gets preferred path. Losing it means potential second-round vs. Metro powerhouse.
Last night’s results shook things: Minnesota 5-4 Detroit helped clinch spots; Rangers 8-1 Washington; Blues 3-2 Colorado.
Today’s other games: Seattle at Winnipeg, Chicago at San Jose, Nashville at LA.
Projections and what to watch
Stathletes models point to Tampa Bay edging it, but Monday’s game is pivotal. Win for Sabres ties points with Tampa (assuming OT), and RW battle intensifies.
Every team has seven or fewer games left until April 16 finale. Track daily on ESPN’s NHL playoff watch.
The Lightning’s experience vs. Buffalo’s momentum vs. Montreal’s grit promises drama.
The Atlantic winner gains home-ice edge through division round, crucial in playoffs’ physical toll. Fans should tune in tonight—momentum here shapes Stanley Cup paths. With draft lottery also heating, eliminated teams eye picks like Gavin McKenna. Stay locked for daily updates as the stretch run unfolds.
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Par Mike Jonderson
Mike Jonderson is a passionate hockey analyst and expert in advanced NHL statistics. A former college player and mathematics graduate, he combines his understanding of the game with technical expertise to develop innovative predictive models and contribute to the evolution of modern hockey analytics.